You think there is a similarity to 29'? --> Chart

[SunTrader]

Fuzzy words, likely/unlikely.

 

[Q.E.D.]

No because the market is way more advanced and complex now vs then. We have 0DTE options that expire every day and have a fed that is willing to do anything to prevent a real drop. Nothing is a good comparison to this environment

Leverage is two-sided: If mkt begins selling-off, stock options, including 1-day, etc., will be switched to puts, & add to down pressure.

 

[Q.E.D.]

Ofcourse, that was the sort of point i was making.

No crash at all scenario, like posts 2 and 3 were hinting, is very unlikely, and total wipeout 85%+ crash like 1929, is also very unlikely.

Lots of more likely but still nasty scenarios in between those two.

These days, a 10% decline, would feel like a crash -- and gets as much press.

 

[Q.E.D.]

More advanced, you mean the fed is there to print money ...and more QE and yes let's not forget circuit breakers so we can't have another October 1987 style collapse, have to make sure there are no dramatic drops....they make sure there is no such thing as a depression...I mean we can't even get a recession these days. Any minor sell off and the fed comes sweeping in to save the markets. ...

Remember the fed is the only thing that keeps markets propped up and functionable. ...without the fed and the existence of free markets the markets as a whole would be down 90%. There would be no tesla, no google, no amazon, no apple, no Chipotle, no carvana no Netflix....the fed helped create these titans.......


if the markets had just one day of free markets you would see the end of equities

Agree with most of your points, although I doubt the Fed has any idea they created MEME, bubbles, etc. IMO Fed would only do more QE & lower rates if the economy itself is impacted, not just the stock market.

I suspect now the Fed considers most asset prices inflated, and would welcome some re-adjustment.

 

[tradertweets]

Thanks guys for your opinions.

Just wanted to share a chart; no need to fight with each other... (lol)

The FED is in control.

We all agree on that.

No matter what Joe Biden / Xi Yingping or someone else does,
no matter what cash pile Warren hoards,
no matter what we think...

But: I keep only trusting what I see on the chart and in the data.

 

[hilmy83]

I don't know what a crash is. As millenial, the only thing we know is up market with few occasions of sub 20% correction. The closest thing I felt to panic was 2020 crash. I really thought that was 1929 level shit lol

 

[nitrene]

Looks like we got our daily thread of "this market is just like 1929 RCA/2000 CSCO." Next we need some more threads about how NVDA is about to crash.

If this ends in a bubble, which is likely, only when no one is left to buy will it actually crash. That's probably at $9-$12 trillion in market cap of NVDA.

 

[Businessman]

The closest thing I felt to panic was 2020 crash. I really thought that was 1929 level shit lol

The market recovered and went to new all time highs, but the 2020 crash shows how quickly things can change.

33% crash off all time highs in just one month.

The Fed can jump in to save the day (assuming the Fed's hands are not tied), but before it does that, the market can fall a hell of a lot.

 

[Clubber Lang]

That's probably at $9-$12 trillion in market cap of NVDA.

At this rate that should be around Q1 2025

 

[RedDuke]

More advanced, you mean the fed is there to print money ...and more QE and yes let's not forget circuit breakers so we can't have another October 1987 style collapse, have to make sure there are no dramatic drops....they make sure there is no such thing as a depression...I mean we can't even get a recession these days. Any minor sell off and the fed comes sweeping in to save the markets. ...

Remember the fed is the only thing that keeps markets propped up and functionable. ...without the fed and the existence of free markets the markets as a whole would be down 90%. There would be no tesla, no google, no amazon, no apple, no Chipotle, no carvana no Netflix....the fed helped create these titans.......


if the markets had just one day of free markets you would see the end of equities

they would still exist but their valuations would have been based on fundamentals and not printed free money. when you have car company that creates 1% of cars having double market cap of all other car manufacturers combined or NVIDEA being worth more then whole German stock market, you know things are way out of wack. When reality arrives it will be beyond ugly.