You think there is a similarity to 29'? --> Chart
- Thread starter tradertweets
- Start date
No because the market is way more advanced and complex now vs then. We have 0DTE options that expire every day and have a fed that is willing to do anything to prevent a real drop. Nothing is a good comparison to this environment
Sure there are similarities.
The difference is that in 1929 they crashed the economy and asset prices by allowing a chaotic, deflationary collapse in the money & credit supply. In 2024, the US government is committed to sustaining nominal asset prices at all costs by socializing losses and printing currency wherever necessary.
The difference is that in 1929 they crashed the economy and asset prices by allowing a chaotic, deflationary collapse in the money & credit supply. In 2024, the US government is committed to sustaining nominal asset prices at all costs by socializing losses and printing currency wherever necessary.
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Some similarities;
even your line charts show both Uptrends. Prefer candlecharts myself.
2] Lots more like SDS..........[short SPY, if one wants to]
3.33] Lots more help like FDIC, insurance , not many state banks print their own money any more LOL. [Soil conservation + flood control somewhat better.]
777]Stock margin is closer to 50% max \not 90%
888] Another similarity;
some still make money on downtrend\ cheap oil\selling it by the quart or gallon LOL
Some similarities;
even your line charts show both Uptrends. Prefer candlecharts myself.
2] Lots more like SDS..........[short SPY, if one wants to]
3.33] Lots more help like FDIC, insurance , not many state banks print their own money any more LOL. [Soil conservation + flood control somewhat better.]
777]Stock margin is closer to 50% max \not 90%
888] Another similarity;
some still make money on downtrend\ cheap oil\selling it by the quart or gallon LOL
How is that similar?
80%+ crash is unlikely.
33% to 66% crashes are a lot more likely.
The next bad black swan event will easily cause a crash in that range.
33% to 66% crashes are a lot more likely.
The next bad black swan event will easily cause a crash in that range.
you know a 20percent crash is even more likely and a 10percent crash is even more likely than that!
More advanced, you mean the fed is there to print money ...and more QE and yes let's not forget circuit breakers so we can't have another October 1987 style collapse, have to make sure there are no dramatic drops....they make sure there is no such thing as a depression...I mean we can't even get a recession these days. Any minor sell off and the fed comes sweeping in to save the markets. ...
Remember the fed is the only thing that keeps markets propped up and functionable. ...without the fed and the existence of free markets the markets as a whole would be down 90%. There would be no tesla, no google, no amazon, no apple, no Chipotle, no carvana no Netflix....the fed helped create these titans.......
if the markets had just one day of free markets you would see the end of equities
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Ofcourse, that was the sort of point i was making.
No crash at all scenario, like posts 2 and 3 were hinting, is very unlikely, and total wipeout 85%+ crash like 1929, is also very unlikely.
Lots of more likely but still nasty scenarios in between those two.
I know a black swan is impossible to predict hence the phrase black swan but if you had to take 3 wild guesses what would 3 of them be???
One I would throw out there is:
1 that has been tossed around is a USA China war. There has been many mentions of this the past couple of years.