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You still think RECESSION is coming?
- Thread starter HedgefundTrader2
- Start date
Quote from day7793:
I Unless I have empirical evidence with facts and figures that clearly point to a recession and end of the world, they are just like fortune tellers in a dark alley.
Recession does not mean the end of the world. The only person linking these two is YOU!
Recessions are a normal, and NEEDED part of the economic cycle. They clean out all the excess and inefficient, and then allow an economy to take off again on better footing with stable balance sheets, better fiscal controls, etc. I have also lived through several of em. Never the end of the world. I have been a day trader since '87 in fact.
You sound just like Storm or Stocktrad3r. You guys will be massively long no matter what, and ignore all the great shorting opportunities. This is a TRADING site BTW, not an investing site. Last night I was short, this morning I was long. Way more money to be made that way than just holding on to one position. (ES and ER2).
I am not arguing with you that this market may rally really well. It damn well might. I don't care however, and will be trading both sides nearly every day, unless we have a melt up or melt down, supported by volume, in which case I tend to ride it one way. These days are few however.
Jay
Quote from Jayford:
Recession does not mean the end of the world. The only person linking these two is YOU!
Recessions are a normal, and NEEDED part of the economic cycle. They clean out all the excess and inefficient, and then allow an economy to take off again on better footing with stable balance sheets, better fiscal controls, etc. I have also lived through several of em. Never the end of the world. I have been a day trader since '87 in fact.
You sound just like Storm or Stocktrad3r. You guys will be massively long no matter what, and ignore all the great shorting opportunities. This is a TRADING site BTW, not an investing site. Last night I was short, this morning I was long. Way more money to be made that way than just holding on to one position. (ES and ER2).
I am not arguing with you that this market may rally really well. It damn well might. I don't care however, and will be trading both sides nearly every day, unless we have a melt up or melt down, supported by volume, in which case I tend to ride it one way. These days are few however.
Jay
I have nothing to do with any stocktrad3 etc. Hope you were not short today with a 177 point rally.
speaking of cnbc cant wait to tune into kudlow tonight and see how bullish he is with the dow rallying 176 points after decling 170 on Friday, watch him talk up this "golidlocks" economy, hahaha.
I would not be surprised to see the DOW down 200+ some time this week. No rate cut and the DOW should be seeing 12k sometime this week.
I would not be surprised to see the DOW down 200+ some time this week. No rate cut and the DOW should be seeing 12k sometime this week.
Quote from day7793:
I have nothing to do with any stocktrad3 etc. Hope you were not short today with a 177 point rally.
I was short twice. Pre market and took 8 ES points, and again around 2:30 ish and took 4.75 ES points. That one I posted live in ES Journal. Lots of other guys there were short and making money also. And yes, some lost. That's trading.
I was long a few times as well.
You can make money on BOTH sides almost every day if your time frame is short enough. Its only the major crash/boom days where this is tough to do. Well, its always tough, but sometimes harder than other times.
I'm interested to see if we can get this forum back on track.
For those of you who believe we are in recession, can you be more specific about why, what definition you are using. It obviously can't be the standard textbook one.
Are you doing your own research or just believing things you read? Some people attach articles and this is great, I look at them all. But from the way I'm reading some posts, these are being presented as fact, when in many cases they are an opinion of data.
I'm in the slowdown camp as opposed to full blown recession. And by the way, I'm not saying that you can't trade it either way to make money.
Let me give some of my " facts " and I look forward to reading comments.
1. Budget deficits - for a long time now, the UK and US have run budget deficits, germany and Japan have had budget surpluses. The first 2 have been the best performing markets, why should it change now?
2. There's a credit crunch, don't you know.... Well not according to the figures releases by the fed last week which shows lending went up in every quarter in 07 and that interest rates on investment grade paper are lower now than when it all started back in July.
3. All those wise men in Davos are predicting chaos. Since when have politicians or bank ceo's been that clever? After all, if your think the bank ceo is clever enough to tell us things are tough and it may be a bumpy ride, why weren't they clever enough to prevent their own banks having such huge writedowns?
4. The massive derivatives market is going to implode.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/80f0e842-ce0c-11dc-9e4e-000077b07658.html
5. The US housing market is in turmoil
Read this http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/ed56ecd0-ce79-11dc-877a-000077b07658.html
Average falls of 7% turmoil??
6. Retail sales falling. Linking this one in with 5 above, it's the one that perhaps surprises me the most. Interest rates have been rising ( until recently of course) for 2-3 years. The whole point of that is too slow down consumer spending and dampen rising house prices. It's worked! Why is anyone surprised?
7. Looking back to headlines in 2000-2003, 1997, 1998, 1990-1993, I see economists making predictions of doom and gloom, banks losing hundreds of billions of dollars for bad loans to asia, russia, commercial propoerty developers, markets that fall 20-25% in 2 month periods and general hysteria and panic. Sentiment is very gloomy and the crowd thinks bear market and recession. The crowd is usually wrong, what's different this time?
8. If america is roughly 50% of world cap, but only accounts for about 20-25% of world trade and the belief is that world trade will slow but remain firm, how can america possibly go into recession. Wouldn't it have to be the other way around? This is a genuine question, I don't understand how the 2 can't be linked and any light shed on this would be helpful.
9. Hedge funds going bust/losing a lot. To me, this is normal and simply proves that most hedge funds are lousy hedgers ( if at all) and are really more outright, leveraged speculation vehicles.
Anyway, that's it for now. Once again, if you want to answer this particular post, please please outline your thoughts and evidence. All contributions are appreciated. As I said, I think this is a slowdown as opposed to recession, but as there is so much data out there, I keen to see/hear what is making so many believe it's a recession and one line answers without any context don't really help.
For those of you who believe we are in recession, can you be more specific about why, what definition you are using. It obviously can't be the standard textbook one.
Are you doing your own research or just believing things you read? Some people attach articles and this is great, I look at them all. But from the way I'm reading some posts, these are being presented as fact, when in many cases they are an opinion of data.
I'm in the slowdown camp as opposed to full blown recession. And by the way, I'm not saying that you can't trade it either way to make money.
Let me give some of my " facts " and I look forward to reading comments.
1. Budget deficits - for a long time now, the UK and US have run budget deficits, germany and Japan have had budget surpluses. The first 2 have been the best performing markets, why should it change now?
2. There's a credit crunch, don't you know.... Well not according to the figures releases by the fed last week which shows lending went up in every quarter in 07 and that interest rates on investment grade paper are lower now than when it all started back in July.
3. All those wise men in Davos are predicting chaos. Since when have politicians or bank ceo's been that clever? After all, if your think the bank ceo is clever enough to tell us things are tough and it may be a bumpy ride, why weren't they clever enough to prevent their own banks having such huge writedowns?
4. The massive derivatives market is going to implode.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/80f0e842-ce0c-11dc-9e4e-000077b07658.html
5. The US housing market is in turmoil
Read this http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/ed56ecd0-ce79-11dc-877a-000077b07658.html
Average falls of 7% turmoil??
6. Retail sales falling. Linking this one in with 5 above, it's the one that perhaps surprises me the most. Interest rates have been rising ( until recently of course) for 2-3 years. The whole point of that is too slow down consumer spending and dampen rising house prices. It's worked! Why is anyone surprised?
7. Looking back to headlines in 2000-2003, 1997, 1998, 1990-1993, I see economists making predictions of doom and gloom, banks losing hundreds of billions of dollars for bad loans to asia, russia, commercial propoerty developers, markets that fall 20-25% in 2 month periods and general hysteria and panic. Sentiment is very gloomy and the crowd thinks bear market and recession. The crowd is usually wrong, what's different this time?
8. If america is roughly 50% of world cap, but only accounts for about 20-25% of world trade and the belief is that world trade will slow but remain firm, how can america possibly go into recession. Wouldn't it have to be the other way around? This is a genuine question, I don't understand how the 2 can't be linked and any light shed on this would be helpful.
9. Hedge funds going bust/losing a lot. To me, this is normal and simply proves that most hedge funds are lousy hedgers ( if at all) and are really more outright, leveraged speculation vehicles.
Anyway, that's it for now. Once again, if you want to answer this particular post, please please outline your thoughts and evidence. All contributions are appreciated. As I said, I think this is a slowdown as opposed to recession, but as there is so much data out there, I keen to see/hear what is making so many believe it's a recession and one line answers without any context don't really help.
Quote from united46:
I'm interested to see if we can get this forum back on track.
For those of you who believe we are in recession, can you be more specific about why, what definition you are using. It obviously can't be the standard textbook one.
Are you doing your own research or just believing things you read? Some people attach articles and this is great, I look at them all. But from the way I'm reading some posts, these are being presented as fact, when in many cases they are an opinion of data.
I'm in the slowdown camp as opposed to full blown recession. And by the way, I'm not saying that you can't trade it either way to make money.
Let me give some of my " facts " and I look forward to reading comments.
1. Budget deficits - for a long time now, the UK and US have run budget deficits, germany and Japan have had budget surpluses. The first 2 have been the best performing markets, why should it change now?
2. There's a credit crunch, don't you know.... Well not according to the figures releases by the fed last week which shows lending went up in every quarter in 07 and that interest rates on investment grade paper are lower now than when it all started back in July.
3. All those wise men in Davos are predicting chaos. Since when have politicians or bank ceo's been that clever? After all, if your think the bank ceo is clever enough to tell us things are tough and it may be a bumpy ride, why weren't they clever enough to prevent their own banks having such huge writedowns?
4. The massive derivatives market is going to implode.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/80f0e842-ce0c-11dc-9e4e-000077b07658.html
5. The US housing market is in turmoil
Read this http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/ed56ecd0-ce79-11dc-877a-000077b07658.html
Average falls of 7% turmoil??
6. Retail sales falling. Linking this one in with 5 above, it's the one that perhaps surprises me the most. Interest rates have been rising ( until recently of course) for 2-3 years. The whole point of that is too slow down consumer spending and dampen rising house prices. It's worked! Why is anyone surprised?
7. Looking back to headlines in 2000-2003, 1997, 1998, 1990-1993, I see economists making predictions of doom and gloom, banks losing hundreds of billions of dollars for bad loans to asia, russia, commercial propoerty developers, markets that fall 20-25% in 2 month periods and general hysteria and panic. Sentiment is very gloomy and the crowd thinks bear market and recession. The crowd is usually wrong, what's different this time?
8. If america is roughly 50% of world cap, but only accounts for about 20-25% of world trade and the belief is that world trade will slow but remain firm, how can america possibly go into recession. Wouldn't it have to be the other way around? This is a genuine question, I don't understand how the 2 can't be linked and any light shed on this would be helpful.
9. Hedge funds going bust/losing a lot. To me, this is normal and simply proves that most hedge funds are lousy hedgers ( if at all) and are really more outright, leveraged speculation vehicles.
Anyway, that's it for now. Once again, if you want to answer this particular post, please please outline your thoughts and evidence. All contributions are appreciated. As I said, I think this is a slowdown as opposed to recession, but as there is so much data out there, I keen to see/hear what is making so many believe it's a recession and one line answers without any context don't really help.
Good post. Wish we had more people like you posting here.
Quote from gnome:
Better still, DELETE the thread.
Gnashing one's teeth over the question of slowdown? Recession? Are we in one? It's all irrelevant.
Even bothering to post about it is a waste of time.
If you had not posted, it would have been much better, but you did. What happens on a public forum is beyond your keyboard control.
Quote from day7793:
If you had not posted, it would have been much better, but you did. What happens on a public forum is beyond your keyboard control.
You're probably right, I shouldn't have mentioned deleting the thread.
Bit wasn't talking just about the board. It's irrelevant in general regardless who gnashes.... CNBS Talking Heads, Gummint, or ET posters.
PS Would be a LOT better if you quit posting... PERIOD! Many of your posts lead me to think that you are an obnoxious person. Maybe we'll do better if we put each other on "ignore".