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You still think RECESSION is coming?
- Thread starter HedgefundTrader2
- Start date
Quote from mokwit:
Banks are laying off thousands of people because things are going to get better.........................right?
That statement is interesting because there were definitely a disproportionate amount of layoffs on Wallstreet compaired to Mainstreet. Did it color their thinking more than it should?
SM
Forgot to say. By day, I do a lot of Phase I Environmental Assessments for banks. I've seen a surge in orders for assessment of commercial sites over the last few weeks that seems beyond what is normal seasonal variation. I spoke about this with a commercial lender just yesterday and she said the same thing. Now, the definition, "recession" is pretty arbitrary, but the orders I receive and and uptick in commercial lending are leading economic indicators, just as the stock market performance is too. Remember that most commercial loans are based on the prime lending rate, and that has been cut alot lately.
So for all of you folks who are voicing your opinion that we're in a recession loudly, you might want to soften your stance a little bit.
SM
So for all of you folks who are voicing your opinion that we're in a recession loudly, you might want to soften your stance a little bit.
SM
Quote from Jayford:
We are definitely in recession. No one ever admits it until 3 to 6 months after it starts.
EVER.
And yes, we have inflation, unless you don't eat or drive a car. These are volatile, but when they consistently run at 10%, as food is doing, you have to include it.
You guys go grocery shopping lately? Everything from cereal to the milk to put in it is WAY up. Don't like cereal? OK, the bread you toast is way up too. I just paid 6 bucks for an 18 pack of eggs! They used to almost be free. Breakfast is just bloody expensive now.
Can you say stagflation?
As for the rally, it won't last. I'd bet my first born that we test and surpass the lows within the next month or two, if not sooner. THEN we may set longer term lows as the markets are always way ahead of the curve and actually rally during a recession most of the time.
Jay
Buying 18 eggs for $6 is NOT smart. I refuse to buy.
Go to Mexican grocery stores they have cheaper vegetables and eggs, 18 pack of eggs for $2.30 . Donot shop at Trader Joes and Whole food for eggs that Organic stuff is total bullshit.
Anyway back to recession topic please....
You always see that here on the board. We tank 5% and we're in a recession. We rally 5% and we're suddenly out of it. Pathetic.Quote from Smart Money:
So for all of you folks who are voicing your opinion that we're in a recession loudly, you might want to soften your stance a little bit.
SM
Quote from Ivanovich:
I would say the same to you. Why do you think we should take anything that comes out of your incoherent mouth?
I am not the one coming off the hinges here, you are.
If you assert so wildly that there is a recession its only a deluded thought otherwise you would have thrown a whole bunch of stats in my face. it goes to prove your doom and gloom outlook without any basis in reality.
Quote from makloda:
You always see that here on the board. We tank 5% and we're in a recession. We rally 5% and we're suddenly out of it. Pathetic.
These are thought process, not the empirical world out there. What one feels suddenly starts appearing as reality and that my friend starts bordering on delusional anxiety.
There is a massive amount of delusional anxiety as if something bad is going to happen to us. The month of January has more psychiatric cases than any other month. Isolation, post holiday blues, drinking, running out of money, pressures, loneliness.
Quote from eusdaiki:
Did a fall in consumer spending cause the 1929 crash? Or was the fall in spending a consequence of the crash?
A recession is still a very likely thing to happen in the US, and it will be as long as the issues behind it are not addressed.
What issues?
Falling prices in the real state market.
High rate of defaults and delinquencies on loans.
Depreciating currency.
Also, the Triple deficits, and a certain war that's going nowhere, are not helping the case.
Cutting rates is a placebo, whenever rates are cut the market goes up a few days. Only to resume selling until the next rate cut. The problem is that you can only cut rates down to 0. After that, you need to actually address the issues.
US recession can only start happening if the consumer stops spending. That is why Congress is giving away $145 billion a free money to you so you add to the GDP and raise that by at least 0.5 basis point each quarter.
Tell me what other country our size of 300 million people, stuffs free money in its Citizens pockets? Your country has done a lot for you, its time you do something for it.
Quote from day7793:
I am not the one coming off the hinges here, you are.
If you assert so wildly that there is a recession its only a deluded thought otherwise you would have thrown a whole bunch of stats in my face. it goes to prove your doom and gloom outlook without any basis in reality.
If you find one post of mine where I say we are in a recession, I will admit you are right.
Take your time.
If you can't (and you won't because I never said it) then it just goes to prove that you're the one who has lost touch with reality.
Go on, give me that John F. Kennedy quote once more - as if that is going to make some sense in the conversation.