You Name It... The Models Time It..

Quote from tradingjournals:

When traders lose they typically say it is someone else who did it to them, and when they win they say it is them who did it.:)

It rather the opposite: If people win it is by chance, and if they lose it is probably by skill.
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I lost $200 on a ten lot. One point/contract.

How much did your 400 pip EURJPY loss amount to?
 
Over time, I am more convinced than not of the hypothesis that markets are a random walk.

For the long term investor, however, I believe there is an edge in market indices.

I also believe there might be traders in VIX who might have edges if they limit themselves to conditions such as sell VIX only at high values and after a crisis has ended, or short puts(on vix) at very low vix.

These are beliefs. They are not facts or truths. These statements are for myself only, and for no one else.
 
Quote from tradingjournals:

Over time, I am more convinced than not of the hypothesis that markets are a random walk.

For the long term investor, however, I believe there is an edge in market indices.

I also believe those there could be traders in VIX who might have edges if they limited themselves to conditions such as sell VIX only after a crisis has ended, or short puts(on vix) on very low vix.
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400 pips is not a random walk. If you believe that there is an edge to indices, then why short into the drift-thesis?

Dude, you edits ex-post-facto are getting tiresome. Just admit you have no f*cking clue what you're talking about.
 
Some of you may have read that the direction of markets is decided in first 20 minutes of trading ( I do not recall the exact percentage number). In the theory of random walks, similar things happen. The first 5% would decide about 15% of the outcomes. 5% of one day is ~ 20 minutes.
 
Quote from drownpruf:

Long is wrong into today's close, and you're down on marks (5-10 cents). The NDX tape closed poorly and is a short. NDX loses 15 tomorrow.
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-14.50 in the first 30 mins of trading.
 
Quote from tradingjournals:

Too early? Didn't he do it in a closed market for both open and reverse/close?

As for your mid 33: I wish you well. Since you seem under water, I hope the market will not do the opposite of your wishes, but I sincerely wish for you that you win.
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I realized after I posted this I meant the 34 mid nineties handle and it is there.
 
Quote from bwolinsky:

I realized after I posted this I meant the 34 mid nineties handle and it is there.
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Nice job, -30 on the day. Where's NoDoji with her bullish symmetrical triangle? I'd like to hear more, purely as a fade. Futs down, it was a daytrade. Futures up 4 later on budget news? It was a swing trade. Futures down 30? It's a daytrade.
 
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