You're way, way too wedded to an investor's view of the market. This is a trading site.
I don't know about anyone else around here, but I took a trading view strictly after Enron, Global Crossing, WorldCom, and then 2008. Most business balance sheets are obviously fiction and that means any analysis based on fundamentals is just piling fiction on top of fiction.
But you insist on citing stuff like earnings, a fiction if ever there was one, to justify a bullish view of the overall market.
I was bullish in the fall of '10, when I agreed with you. I'm not now. That would be fine, but I get extremely impatient with folks who try to justify a particular level of prices on the markets via earnings.
Confidence, the possession of or the lack thereof, is really the only reason the markets go up and down. With it, you can justify a multiple of 40 on some purported level of "earnings". Without it, a multiple of 10 is a hard ceiling to crack.
Keynes thought investing was about fundamentals, and trading about deciphering investor psychology. I've come to the conclusion that it's ALL about deciphering investor psychology. Nothing else matters.
Oh, and use the ignore button. Scumbags like Larson deserve no less.
I don't know about anyone else around here, but I took a trading view strictly after Enron, Global Crossing, WorldCom, and then 2008. Most business balance sheets are obviously fiction and that means any analysis based on fundamentals is just piling fiction on top of fiction.
But you insist on citing stuff like earnings, a fiction if ever there was one, to justify a bullish view of the overall market.
I was bullish in the fall of '10, when I agreed with you. I'm not now. That would be fine, but I get extremely impatient with folks who try to justify a particular level of prices on the markets via earnings.
Confidence, the possession of or the lack thereof, is really the only reason the markets go up and down. With it, you can justify a multiple of 40 on some purported level of "earnings". Without it, a multiple of 10 is a hard ceiling to crack.
Keynes thought investing was about fundamentals, and trading about deciphering investor psychology. I've come to the conclusion that it's ALL about deciphering investor psychology. Nothing else matters.
Oh, and use the ignore button. Scumbags like Larson deserve no less.