Did I just bag myself on this one....Fuck.
Okay, I'm ready for dead cat bounce part 2.
Okay, I'm ready for dead cat bounce part 2.
You Lucky Bastards: FMD
- Thread starter ByLoSellHi
- Start date
Here's my pm response to someone just so everyone knows where I stand on this (on a day where there's nothing but red across the board):
Honestly, I am holding a lot more shares than that.
And I'm not worried.
That's either a sign of major complacency on my part (which would be a rarity, but I guess is possible), or my faith that education lending - whether by Bank of America or First Marblehead - is one of 'those things' the U.S. Bobblehead government will save at all costs.
First Marblehead assesses the risks and does the job of student lending far more efficiently than another office or layer of Sallie Mae ever could.
I plan on holding for a while. I think I'll either sink with it or be launched upward when/if they line up a new insurer of TERI reemerges from BK proceedings.
Remember, all that's changed is that the risk of default of loans (that can't be discharged in BK per amendment) has temporarily switched back to FMD, and default rates have been averaging 5% roughly.
At 7% to 11% interest rates, it's still a profitable venture.
On a side note, everyone should pull out of commodities and bottom fish financials and consumer discretionaries (the ones that have taken the most vicious beatings, but have relatively clean balance sheets) right now, while this total fear permeates everything.
Phil Flynn wrote an article about how the pace of commodity inflation is irrationally exuberant, can't last, and I believe he's right - the other 98% of U.S. businesses are going to be throwing rage fits that their profits are being stolen by skyrocketing wheat, milk and gasoline prices, and Congress and the Fed are going to have to start listening soon.
Here's the article ($9 milk, $8 gallon of gas, etc.):
http://seekingalpha.com/article/71719-options-trader-wednesday-outlook
Honestly, I am holding a lot more shares than that.
And I'm not worried.
That's either a sign of major complacency on my part (which would be a rarity, but I guess is possible), or my faith that education lending - whether by Bank of America or First Marblehead - is one of 'those things' the U.S. Bobblehead government will save at all costs.
First Marblehead assesses the risks and does the job of student lending far more efficiently than another office or layer of Sallie Mae ever could.
I plan on holding for a while. I think I'll either sink with it or be launched upward when/if they line up a new insurer of TERI reemerges from BK proceedings.
Remember, all that's changed is that the risk of default of loans (that can't be discharged in BK per amendment) has temporarily switched back to FMD, and default rates have been averaging 5% roughly.
At 7% to 11% interest rates, it's still a profitable venture.
On a side note, everyone should pull out of commodities and bottom fish financials and consumer discretionaries (the ones that have taken the most vicious beatings, but have relatively clean balance sheets) right now, while this total fear permeates everything.
Phil Flynn wrote an article about how the pace of commodity inflation is irrationally exuberant, can't last, and I believe he's right - the other 98% of U.S. businesses are going to be throwing rage fits that their profits are being stolen by skyrocketing wheat, milk and gasoline prices, and Congress and the Fed are going to have to start listening soon.
Here's the article ($9 milk, $8 gallon of gas, etc.):
http://seekingalpha.com/article/71719-options-trader-wednesday-outlook
Well I am taking an absolute ass pounding. I wish I never woke up today.
And I felt bad for losing $35 (incl. commissions) today on Citigroup.
Think I'm stuck for 1500 at average 5.02. I bought in after that first pop faded for the next pop that of course never happened.
Think I should just eat it? Would be only a 1k loss about or sweat it out?
Yeah, I know. Maybe some Bullshit rumor, infusion, etc nonsense to sell into soon.
I didn't have time to look at this one today but wouldn't an option strategy be better than buying the stock outright on this one? Perhaps buy the june 7.5 calls for 0.65 (this way once the stocks starts moving up you collect on the rise in volatility as well as the rising delta and sell the June 5 puts against the june 2.5s reducing your cost basis. Defined risk is lower and you can command more stock for the same money.
You can buy the options, or do a bull call spread, but why, when the stock is trading at these levels?
Mvic, chalk it up to lack of time, but I'm assuming that the premium on call options (%) on this would be pretty high?
Had a limit order in to buy another 1,000 shares, but it didn't get triggered as of the close, and it's not gtc, which sucks, because I'd love to average down some more on this. Let's see where it opens tomorrow.
Mvic, chalk it up to lack of time, but I'm assuming that the premium on call options (%) on this would be pretty high?
Had a limit order in to buy another 1,000 shares, but it didn't get triggered as of the close, and it's not gtc, which sucks, because I'd love to average down some more on this. Let's see where it opens tomorrow.