Quote from bubba7:
STOCK DATE IN PAID NOW GAIN TARGET
Hold over a year old
PTSI 4/15/2002 24.84 22.00 -11.4% 28.9
AXL 5/20/2002 34.73 28.92 -16.7% 40.2
CHKE 5/22/2002 21.50 18.90 -12.1% 24.9
MDC 7/10/2002 46.59 47.85 2.7% 54.0
Over 6 weeks hold limit
GRMN 5/23/2003 45.91 38.23 -16.7% 53.1
WRLD 6/3/2003 14.43 14.79 2.5% 16.8
COH 6/9/2003 51.49 53.10 3.1% 59.8
Still within Hold range
WSB 6/30/2003 10.67 9.55 -10.5% 12.4
AMHC 7/14/2003 41.00 33.80 -17.6% 47.6
NARA 7/25/2003 18.91 18.65 -1.4% 21.9
DKS 7/29/2003 39.99 36.23 -9.4% 46.3
SFCC 7/30/2003 26.01 25.04 -3.7% 30.0
Available cash stream based on past holds
Stream A
Partial Winners (3):
10 to 15%
None
5 to 9%
none
0 to 4%
three
Losers(9):
loss over 15%
Three
10 to 15% loss
Three
5 to 9% loss
One
0 to 4% loss
Two
Streams not invested (1):
Stream A.
Summary.
A couple of months ago Mr market's capital reached a peak. Now it is in decline overall. A test of any start up investment system is how the initial capital works. He started with two streams and added capital continually. For profits to represent additional investment streams there is a trade off between how many streams represent one profit cycle advance and how many cycles are required to form a new stream. Currently he has 13 streams running when he maxed out on streams.
A second test is when the worth of units of applied capital peaks. He has added capital continually and the worth of units of applied capital peaked in the first quarter.
Currently all of his partial winners are equal to 1/2 the losses of his single worst held loser AMHC. Currently, he has a loosing money velocity equivalent to 8 1/2 units of applied capital in a context where it takes 13 winners to advance his capital 15%.
Currently, the total capital is shrinking at a rate faster than any time of capital addition in the history of the investment system.
It is difficult to imagine how logging consecutive winners has any relationship to making money.
This guy has thrown additional outside capital at this thing since the beginning and now it is losing money at the fastest clip it ever has.
It will be stunning to see how he applied his uninvested cash to the next filtered and culled best investment. All 5 of the stocks he has selected that remain within his target hold period are losers atthis point.
STOCK DATE IN PAID NOW GAIN TARGET
Hold over a year
PTSI 4/15/2002 24.84 21.31 -14.2% 28.9
AXL 5/20/2002 34.73 29.34 -15.5% 40.2
CHKE 5/22/2002 21.50 18.75 -12.8% 24.9
MDC 7/10/2002 46.59 49.70 6.7% 54.0
Hold past 6 weeks limit
GRMN 5/23/2003 45.91 36.25 -21.0% 53.1
WRLD 6/3/2003 14.43 13.60 -5.8% 16.8
COH 6/9/2003 51.49 51.92 0.8% 59.8
WSB 6/30/2003 10.67 9.05 -15.2% 12.4
Hold within 6 weeks limit
AMHC 7/14/2003 41.00 32.55 -20.6% 47.6
NARA 7/25/2003 18.91 18.03 -4.7% 21.9
DKS 7/29/2003 39.99 36.77 -8.1% 46.3
SFCC 7/30/2003 26.01 23.87 -8.2% 30.0
ESI 8/7/2003 39.59 39.91 0.8% 46.6
No cash available based on past records.
Partial Winners (3):
10 to 15%
None
5 to 9%
one
0 to 4%
two
Losers(10): (one more than last time)
New category:
Loss over 20% (New category)
two (two more than last time)
loss over 15%
Two (one lower than last time)
10 to 15% loss
Two (one lower than last time)
5 to 9% loss
Three (three more than last time)
0 to 4% loss
one (one less than last time)
Three winners total 8.3% . This it about 1/3 of the biggest loser AMHC. AMHC went down another 3% in the two weeks that passed.
The capital is shrinking even fast than last reported above.
Focusing on all his winners:
Stock Last post NOW Change
MDC 2.7 6.7 +4.0 good work
WRLD 2.5 -5.8 -8.3 This is not good
COH 3.1 .8 -2.3
ESI n/a .8 +.8
Focussing on his losers.
He now hase four stocks down over 15%. This means they have to perform twice as well as a new buy would to fit into the string of winners. There were only three of this type loser last time.
At this rate he is breaking even posting new winners as he also gets new losers over -15%.
Now he may not add any picks because he has no cash. His current method before as he added losers was to add more cash.
Because he does not post financial information the portfolio can not be analyzed financially. All we know is that he is loosing money faster than ever before.
since the strategy is to buy terrific stocks going into their last 15% of growth it looks like he picked 10 current ones that did not grow 15% more. Four of thse have retraced back from their peaks over 15%.
In this scneario, one of the most promising areas to play the market is shorting stocks that have peaked. He would be making more money shorting his picks than he is making picking and holding stocks for peaking. If he had stops in for these as shorts, he would not have had any stops broken it looks like. If there are any contrarians out there it looks like you have a terrfic strategy for playing here. Look at the stocks still withing the 6 week holding period. There are three shorts well on their way. You would have a short winner list four long right off the bat.
We are now at the cold cuts (baloney) and velveta (manufactured cheese) point.
