You have to Buy the Newbie Panic!!

steeldust · Jan 20, 2006

just wondering what your timeframe is? what do you trade?

hairdresser · Jan 20, 2006

just scalping the panic for now.

steeldust · Jan 20, 2006

i cant ignore iran and oil. too much unknown and the weekend.

Ivanovich · Jan 20, 2006

Quote from Restricted:

Areyoukidding is that you?

It is, isn't it?

Of course it's him.

Li Ka Shing · Jan 20, 2006

Hello....

Could I ask something..? How do u all determine that a drop is a newbie panic? And, what is the difference with 'correction' as opposed to 'newbie panic'? What characteristics set them apart?

And finally, what has to happen for you to 'buy the newbie panic' ? In all cases? Doesnt that mean you are a contrarian/ not a trend follower? In what factors do you see a reversal of the current trend?

Thank you for ur insights and advices.

dac8555 · Jan 20, 2006

great questions. in my few years (7) in the market in one capacity or another, i have never heard the term "newbie panic" until this week. maybe little gaps up or down could be small corrections that are not sustainable. i dont think newcomers to the market have much effect on it generally speaking. it takes much more than newbies to drop the dow 150+ points. it takes stong institutional selling.

i for one believe all of the dow 11,000 was marketing hype and the economic fundamentals are not enough to sustain that. we have a very strong run up the past couple months that needs to take a breather IF this is a true bull market. overall, i am bearish on 2006...but will go long when the bulls want to fight.

good luck.

hairdresser · Jan 20, 2006

Quote from Li Ka Shing:

Hello....

Could I ask something..? How do u all determine that a drop is a newbie panic? And, what is the difference with 'correction' as opposed to 'newbie panic'? What characteristics set them apart?

And finally, what has to happen for you to 'buy the newbie panic' ? In all cases? Doesnt that mean you are a contrarian/ not a trend follower? In what factors do you see a reversal of the current trend?

Thank you for ur insights and advices.

Newbie panic happens when stocks and indices puke for no reason. Today obviously oil rallying negates the fact.

Deringer · Jan 20, 2006

Like I said, newbies are long size. The only ones panicking are the longs who don't know what's going on.

Steve Tvardek · Jan 20, 2006

Dude, oil has been selling off hard since 10 am. and the market still continues lower....

Quote from hairdresser:

Newbie panic happens when stocks and indices puke for no reason. Today obviously oil rallying negates the fact.

dddooo · Jan 20, 2006

Quote from hairdresser:

Newbie panic happens when stocks and indices puke for no reason. Today obviously oil rallying negates the fact.

Or professionals anticipated oil rally and lousy earnings in advance and were selling...while newbies like you were buying. Just because you don't see reasons for selling does not mean there are not any.

newbies (hairdresser) 0 : professionals 1