You can't generate positive alpha without a PhD.

Quote from whitster:

there is a reason why second year college students are called "sophomore". the origins are from the Greek

Soph - wise

More - idiot (as in moron).

they are called sophomores because they are "wise" ie a bit schooled in academic theory but also MORONS because they think they know far more than they do, and they don't understand the difference between WISDOM and KNOWLEDGE

academics who opine on the market are simply salving their ego. most cannot actually TRADE, so they define all edges and success as statistical outliers in a random sequence

your math is SERIOUSLY lacking. if you are truly going to establish the statistics, do it with scalpers.

if i make (on average) 5 trades a day, that is well over 1000 trades a year

do that for 5 years successfully and that is over 5000 trades. if traders were truly only benefiting from randomness, then please consider the relatively probability of this # of individual events leading to positive expectancy, ESPECIALLY considering transaction costs and slippage

it is fallacious to use the # of traders as the variable

the issue is the # of trades.

if you enter one trade a year, and are successful that could obviously be random.

with thousands of trades, there is no way randomness could account for anywhere NEAR the # of successful traders that are out there.

to state it would be statistically unlikely is a gross understatement

I'm a little late to the party, but great post whitster...
 
<i>"I'm a little late to the party, but great post whitster..."</i>

Whitster is a very sharp guy... excellent communicator, too. Always enjoy reading every word of his stuff.

There are quite a few intelligent, savvy "regulars" in the rather small pool of repeat viewers here. The OP will not be one of them until he/she loses the haughty attitude and learns respect for those who figured out what it takes to succeed in this profession.

A college degree of any type is not the answer. Neither is being "indexed", whatever the hell that means. I presume invested in the relative safety of index funds. With current attitude, good place to keep your money for a few years, if not longer.
 
thanks for the props, guys.

by the way- of course game theory is applied mathematics.

so is playing poker. ask chris ferguson

so is trading (at least for me it is)

one of the guys i learned from trades almost SOLELY from watching the tape and listening to pit noise. clearly, he can intuitively crunch #'s and see patterns like few people can.

also, the issue of trading probability in markets is not just about (or even necessary to) predict PRICE direction.

any student of the markets shoudl realize that volatility is more cyclical than price. and more predictable.

hint hint hint

the best thing to happen to my trading was studying market profile

regardless, i am glad to belong to the class of DOERS vs. the class of pontificators (Wall st. Golfer). the latter are like the old saw about cynics - they know the price of everything and the value of nothing
 
Quote from whitster:

thanks for the props, guys.

by the way- of course game theory is applied mathematics.

so is playing poker. ask chris ferguson

so is trading (at least for me it is)

one of the guys i learned from trades almost SOLELY from watching the tape and listening to pit noise. clearly, he can intuitively crunch #'s and see patterns like few people can.

also, the issue of trading probability in markets is not just about (or even necessary to) predict PRICE direction.

any student of the markets shoudl realize that volatility is more cyclical than price. and more predictable.

hint hint hint

the best thing to happen to my trading was studying market profile

regardless, i am glad to belong to the class of DOERS vs. the class of pontificators (Wall st. Golfer). the latter are like the old saw about cynics - they know the price of everything and the value of nothing
regarding game theory when studying the markets don´t look for cournot nash equilibriums... but rather for bertrand equilibrium, you´ll find that it describes market behaviour better in the long run.
 
Quote from whitster:

...
the best thing to happen to my trading was studying market profile

Quote from eusdaiki:

regarding game theory when studying the markets don´t look for cournot nash equilibriums... but rather for bertrand equilibrium, you´ll find that it describes market behaviour better in the long run.

Auction Market Theory displayed as a formula.

No matter how divisive or off-track a thread becomes, there is always valuable information to be obtained from it (enclosed is a PDFwhich goes over the differnt models for pricing assets and their derivatives).

It may be infered that the markets operate the way they do because they are allowed to do so by a free-market, capitalist system. If the OP choses to be in the business of making a statement and then proving it, these are the formulas he should be looking at.

JJ
 

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Quote from WallStGolfer31:

That's why I'm indexed till I get out of the graduate school of business.

You're all blind, and going to eyell at me because I told you, your returns are mostly random.

Using information everyone has access to thinking your "strategy" is working. Oh let me not forget your mad trading skills. As they are the fire that dives the train. NOT


All I can say to the "traders" here is good luck, I hope your misguided random adventure lands you in a net positive, but I can't feel sorry for those who fool themselves.

Where the f__k is the jurk now?
 
Quote from Willleung:

Where the f__k is the jurk now?

He got antsy, couldn't wait to start trading before getting his Ph.D, and blew out his $500 account on a bad currency trade.
 
Quote from ByLoSellHi:

He got antsy, couldn't wait to start trading before getting his Ph.D, and blew out his $500 account on a bad currency trade.


oh? so it was all bullshit when he said he indexed the S&P etc?
 
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