You can't generate positive alpha without a PhD.

Quote from shanoballs:

in a trading universe which consists of so many traders, i would not be surprised to find a 12 year winning streak. imagine 100,000 market participants, and imagine just my lucky about 50% of them go belly up every year, by the 12th year, you would have approximately 49 people who have flawless trading records just by luck. so is there a chance that your trading record is simply due to luck? absolutely, just my .02:

<img src="http://img409.imageshack.us/img409/233/tradershb1.gif"
More...


Well I guess it would be great to think that 1 out of every 2 people who try to trade are actually successful at it, but we know that is far from true reality. I would ask you to run your numbers against say 10% being successful. Even if you started out with 100 million people trying to seriously trade after nine years only ONE would be left.

Bottomline is the market is inefficient and those that can find CONSISTENCY and can ADAPT to a changing environment(Adapt their edge) can thrive at trading regardless of education or absolute level of intelligence.

You just would not have people still trading after 8 years if it was truly impossible as you say.

1 100,000,000 10000000
2 10000000 1000000
3 1000000 100000
4 100000 10000
5 10000 1000
6 1000 100
7 100 10
8 10 1
9 1 0.1
 
Quote from TudorJones:

Jimmy, A

Jimmy... this is a pvt message, and don't post this in the public and reveal my true identity.. or else.. I'll have send my special forces to take care of ya.

Remember.. I am the BEST or at the very fucking least, I am better than your sorry ass. :mad:
More...
\



thank you for taking the film off the market. my question is why?

:D :D
 
Wow 38 pages of angry retort to some college kid.
Well it doesn't speak well of our confidence as stock pickers to have to defend or attack to much.

I think the question boils down to the ancient but true saying those that can do and those that can't teach.
I don't mean this in a bad way-- i was an English major I almost had a travel book published I have had some murder & horror stuff published-- and I would love to teach. Those young nubile girls staring at you with those big... eyes.. just all weepy at how well you dress... (Did I mention the 140k for 9 months wasn't bad either? Summers off you know) This is a true statement from our young golf gal- but of course teaching English would be nearer to $40K However, the ratio of good looking girls would be much higher! Now The stonedinvestor leads a life which enables summers off as well. July and August have always been almost completely devoid of trades for me. This is a time to smoke fatties drink heavily and cook, cook, cook. The rest of the year is spent happily investing.

I think one of the big mistakes people make and I catch a lot of it on ET is this ever quest for a system.
Some chink in the mathematics that allows one to dispassionately rake dollars on a regular basis... it's the phd fallacy that leads to that thinking the quantative analysis of back room shenanigans at brokerage houses, almost always these schemes are just normal schemes emboldened with leverage- nothing more. I have had two down years and five flat year's in 20 years investing- The other 13 years have been up between $100K and $300K every year. But it's a ride filled with passion anger angst & victory. Phd's need not apply.
 
Quote from whitster:

look, you can doubt my game theory chops all you want, but i spent a couple years playing poker and have over 20,000 hands of poker data saved in Poker Office over the time i played.
. . .

i am not a mathematician. i do know a fair amount of statistics, because i had to during grad school (for psychology) and undergrad.

. . .
More...

Hmmm, a psych grad student -- that explains a lot.

Here's a heads-up, so you won't embarrass yourself further: Game Theory doesn't mean you know how to play poker; it's an area of applied mathematics. (See Borel, von Neumann, or Nash, for example.)
 
Quote from WallStGolfer31:

That's why I'm indexed till I get out of the graduate school of business.

You're all blind, and going to eyell at me because I told you, your returns are mostly random.

Using information everyone has access to thinking your "strategy" is working. Oh let me not forget your mad trading skills. As they are the fire that dives the train. NOT


All I can say to the "traders" here is good luck, I hope your misguided random adventure lands you in a net positive, but I can't feel sorry for those who fool themselves.
More...

umm sorry to burst your bubble but the corrected statement heading of this thread should read.
You can't generate positive alpha (over the long term)without assuming more risk or (intentionally)choosing the wrong benchmark.

WB clearly has done so and is the rare exception, your Ph.D. will not exempt you from the implications of EMT.
So you have a choice.
1)Continue indexing , strictly controlling cost and tailoring asset allocation to your risk tolerance or:

2) assume your trading profits will compensate you for your risk.
 
It seems this forum started off with an unnecessary and insulting initial statement and doesn't have anywhere to positive to go unless we ignore the offensiveness and defensiveness that it has inspired.

My work friends are all PhDs. They worked extremely hard on very difficult and arcane problems for many years to get their doctorate. They are each the smartest person on the planet in one small obscure branch of their respective fields. Unfortunately, very few of them have the psychological balance and wisdom to remain humble when speaking outside their field of expertise.

Because of this, their tendency toward hubris makes them more prone to fail in non academic matters. But all us "uneducated" people should realize that no matter what they say or we think, the PhDs capable of quickly and efficiently applying esoteric mathematics to real world situations will be paid several $100,000s a year without risking one dollar of their own.
 
re: will be paid several $100,000s a year without risking one dollar of their own....

A garbage man on overtime will make $70 grand without risking a dollar of their own as well.

Any idiot analyst (except my friends) will book several $100,000 without risking a cent of their own.

The point is who can really exist in the world these days without having to report to someone else? It is these people in every field that I admire most....
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top