You can't forecast something irrational and wayward (the market)

Quote from TraDaToR:

It must be a dream market for you. Efficiency is at its highest level.
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Efficiency at it's highest level?

If so then:
A. Why banks blew up by issuing mortgages to people who couldn't pay?
B. Markets paid hyper-high premiums for companies who could never be profitable (dotcoms)?
C. Stock markets plunged 50% in about a year (if they were so efficient why they didn't forecast and discount a recession)?

Markets are not and will never be efficient, or rational.
 
Quote from crgarcia:

You can forecast something that it's rational (i.e. if the market were efficient, and it responds to new information).

You can't forecast something wayard, even stupid (like the dotcom bubble), or even the subprime mortgage fever from people who couldn't even afford the first monthly payment.
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Traders don't forcast anything. They trade what they see. You didn't have to forcast the dot com bubble in order to trade it.

Patience and capital are all the is required, of which you apparently have neither.
 
Quote from crgarcia:

Efficiency at it's highest level?

If so then:
A. Why banks blew up by issuing mortgages to people who couldn't pay?
B. Markets paid hyper-high premiums for companies who could never be profitable (dotcoms)?
C. Stock markets plunged 50% in about a year (if they were so efficient why they didn't forecast and discount a recession)?

Markets are not and will never be efficient, or rational.
More...

He said, "dream", not that it is so. Need some reading glasses?
 
Quote from crgarcia:


C. Stock markets plunged 50% in about a year (if they were so efficient why they didn't forecast and discount a recession)?

Markets are not and will never be efficient, or rational.
More...


héhé best argument... I can't understand how economic teacher in Uni are able to say the contrary in front of more than 100+ kids, and no one see the absurdity of such a claim... but as he is the teacher he has a such power that even if you know it's wrong you have to shut your mouth and hope for freedom !
 
Quote from SNBthetrue:

héhé best argument... I can't understand how economic teacher in Uni are able to say the contrary in front of more than 100+ kids, and no one see the absurdity of such a claim... but as he is the teacher he has a such power that even if you know it's wrong you have to shut your mouth and hope for freedom !
More...
Unless you are a multimillionaire, like in the movie Back to School.
 
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