You are more likely to become a top Hollywood actor or popstar than profitable trader

[asiaprop]

Then I do it here publicly. You know, I dont know which points in other threads I made you disagreed with. But accusing me of lying when I make a public offer because some anonymous internet figure is bragging boldly about his decade long track record is quite something. I was not on a public board proclaiming my track record or how much I make. It was someone else and all I did was to challenge such person to prove it. I dont think I will ever see the proof even with the offered incentive. My whole point was that it is stupid on a public board to brag about once's track record because there is no value added, whatsoever.

Anaconda, hoping we can at least get back to some debate that actually adds value, I would claim that the game for position traders has not changed all that much. Whether you attempt it from a purely technical perspective or fundamentally or a mixture of both, I dont see how a changed landscape has impacted my approach to the market all that much. Sure, there are issues such as execution and slippage which has changed a lot.

I think the segment that has been negatively affected the most was day trading (if that was ever a flourishing sub group of trading).

P.S.: Can we conclude from your post above that you are not anymore involved in position taking?

Quote from Anaconda:

Just put him on ignore, he is a delusional troll. He is never going to bet, anyway, it's all talk, not from just him by the way. The closest someone has ever proceed to a bet resulted in waste of time and one party mysteriously disappearing when push came to shove. If both sides are serious, they will do it via a thread viewed by everyone to avoid the PM games.

As regarding the topic, I personally know a handful of daytraders who have 5-10 years of consistent profitability. Myself, I have 3-4 years before I made the choice to leave and I honestly cannot say whether I would have continued being profitable. The markets have changed a lot since when I started till when I left, all for the worse. The people that I do know are having a rougher time each year and some of them may not be profitable anymore.
I know many more guys who actually blew out or simply had to quit, some of which were extremely consistent with years of profitability. And then there are the obvious losers who were never that profitable to begin with and were just riding short term streaks.

So take the anecdotal info for what it's worth and make your own conclusions. I do believe a very few are actually gifted with trading skills. I also believe that just as many are actually statistical rarities, the tip of the bell curve, so to speak. I've come to believe that you need a real edge to be profitable, and I do not see these edges available to your average solo trader in the most traveled routes such as index futures and equities. Personally, I would not commit any serious time or capital to trading these anymore, and if I was to do so, I would consider it a gamble. Because unless you have a real edge, it is just gambling.

There are many markets outside the closeminded index futs & equities box. Trading exists all over, people trade DVDs, comic books, coins, bullion, scrapmetal, PCs and PC parts, etc. The opportunity in some of the new emerging markets are amazing, lots of edges to exploit & monetize, as I am personally finding out. It's all about the "edge" and that is something that has been dried up from the stocks & stock futures. I think any new aspiring trader needs to explore these issues, instead of going on hope and self assurance that hard work & time will pay off.

 

[Bob111]

Quote from ProfLogic:

Amazing how Garcia pulled a disappearing act when cornered. Nicely played. I'm bookmarking this thread as a reminder to him. Thanks.

just like the other guy in similar thread..
i think Now is Now could be right...

I personally believe this OP is a 'toy boy' for the administrator to do EXACTLY what has happened ...10 pages of hits and nonsense..

NiN

manipulation!!!

 

[Mercor]

Quote from asiaprop:

how do you measure percent? And you posted over 2000(!!!) times and are on this board since 2007? Has the tick chart roasted your brain or what?

Asiaprop.....You must have a prop up your ass.

 

[Airwaves]

LOL, I love elitetrader!
I tend to prefer trade2win, but you never get all of the ridiculous 'big boy' bets that will obviously never take place, which i miss!
lol. I love that about this place. Cracks me up.

"Oh yeah?!! OK then, I bet you 50k that bla bla bla bla" hahaha

Its makes me cringe and laugh at the same time. Everyone trying to make out they're really rich by 'betting' with STRANGERS over the INTERNET with 'money' they DONT HAVE! Its like how people acted when the internet first came out years and years ago. They were all drunk on the anonymous aspect of it all and just reverted back to being like children again! ET is caught in a time warp and carrying it on.

NONE of you are gonna bet anything!! Stop embarassing yourselves.

 

[asiaprop]

totally and 100% agree. And because this is an anonymous board with around 95% losers who never attained any higher education or who failed in their previous endeavors it makes zero sense whatsoever for anyone to come out and say, "well I am the guy with a 7 year positive track record". Whats the fuxxing point? He/she is unwilling to support such claims. When someone then comes along to challenge them they get all wound up and start accusing you, behaving as if this is the most serious thread they have ever read and contributed to.

It makes me chuckle each and every single time how the biggest losers come out and say "well just because it does not work for you does not mean it won't work for anyone else". I dont even know whether day trading would work for me, because I found that trading trends over multi-day/week periods gives me everything I want and fits with my personality and analytical skills. I know from my many years in finance that almost all the guys who have amassed millions of dollars have done so by trading longer time frames. Empirical evidence simply shows that the odds are hugely stacked against any sort of day trading approach. Why? Because prices behave near randomly in short time frames. Everyone who has ever back tested trading strategies and knows his 2 cents about probabilities and statistical testing knows that. The only guys who make consistent money trading short term frequencies are those entities in the market place who are currently under investigation and will soon be regulated (HFT). Day trading may have worked in the starting day of online execution but such edges have long time ago vanished. As Anaconda correctly pointed out, successfully day trading ES and other index futures is an absolute pipe dream, pursued by the lazy and uneducated. I am almost certain most in here know this actually but they are either too excited playing this casino or are too addicted to stop.

Please show me a documented case of someone who is currently highly successful at day trading. Even the "Flipper" has completely lost touch and he is a 1 in a 100,000 cases. I show you uncountable examples of successful position traders. Guys, just think about this: If someone has such great edge in day trading, don't you think he/she would be trading with hundreds of millions in backing at firms such as SAC or Millennium? I know a lot of traders there and not a single of them day trades on a frequent basis.

I never criticize people with small ambitions. It is the choice in life they made. But coming out and claiming they can easily match a 20% annualized return over a multi-year period is pathetic. Especially pathetic because all they do in turn is telling you that the challenge is "unfair", that the poster "altered his challenge".

And with this I buy back half of my EURUSD short at 1.1975. Ironically this was a day trade but it was initiated on a clear break of support and held throughout the whole trading session. I still believe EURUSD will ultimately touch 1.10 or possibly even lower but I expect some sort of ECB announcement of intervention over the weekend. Happy weekend all.

Quote from Airwaves:

LOL, I love elitetrader!
I tend to prefer trade2win, but you never get all of the ridiculous 'big boy' bets that will obviously never take place, which i miss!
lol. I love that about this place. Cracks me up.

"Oh yeah?!! OK then, I bet you 50k that bla bla bla bla" hahaha

Its makes me cringe and laugh at the same time. Everyone trying to make out they're really rich by 'betting' with STRANGERS over the INTERNET with 'money' they DONT HAVE! Its like how people acted when the internet first came out years and years ago. They were all drunk on the anonymous aspect of it all and just reverted back to being like children again! ET is caught in a time warp and carrying it on.

NONE of you are gonna bet anything!! Stop embarassing yourselves.

 

[TrueProp]

Quote from asiaprop:
....
It makes me chuckle each and every single time how the biggest losers come out and say "well just because it does not work for you does not mean it won't work for anyone else". I dont even know whether day trading would work for me, because I found that trading trends over multi-day/week periods gives me everything I want and fits with my personality and analytical skills.

I know from my many years in finance that almost all the guys who have amassed millions of dollars have done so by trading longer time frames. Empirical evidence simply shows that the odds are hugely stacked against any sort of day trading approach. Why? Because prices behave near randomly in short time frames. Everyone who has ever back tested trading strategies and knows his 2 cents about probabilities and statistical testing knows that.

The only guys who make consistent money trading short term frequencies are those entities in the market place who are currently under investigation and will soon be regulated (HFT). Day trading may have worked in the starting day of online execution but such edges have long time ago vanished.

As Anaconda correctly pointed out, successfully day trading ES and other index futures is an absolute pipe dream, pursued by the lazy and uneducated. I am almost certain most in here know this actually but they are either too excited playing this casino or are too addicted to stop.

Please show me a documented case of someone who is currently highly successful at day trading. Even the "Flipper" has completely lost touch and he is a 1 in a 100,000 cases. I show you uncountable examples of successful position traders. Guys, just think about this: If someone has such great edge in day trading, don't you think he/she would be trading with hundreds of millions in backing at firms such as SAC or Millennium? I know a lot of traders there and not a single of them day trades on a frequent basis.

I never criticize people with small ambitions. It is the choice in life they made. But coming out and claiming they can easily match a 20% annualized return over a multi-year period is pathetic. Especially pathetic because all they do in turn is telling you that the challenge is "unfair", that the poster "altered his challenge".

And with this I buy back half of my EURUSD short at 1.1975. Ironically this was a day trade but it was initiated on a clear break of support and held throughout the whole trading session. I still believe EURUSD will ultimately touch 1.10 or possibly even lower but I expect some sort of ECB announcement of intervention over the weekend. Happy weekend all.

Your years in finance have nothing to do with knowledge regarding the financial success of individual independent traders that trade prop, prop-in-disguise, or at their homes in pajamas.

I love when people like you quote random empirical evidence from academia conducted by guys that have never traded a stock. The idea that any one person, whether from academia or a professional, is capable of performing a study that can prove that the odds are totally against ANY SORT of day-trading approach is a clear ridiculous statement. There are more ways to take money out of the market than any of us can imagine. Of the 100 or so traders in my office, and of the guys that I know from other firms, I can easily think of about 15 different approaches that are profitable for the traders that trade them. But I'm glad you've backtested all possible daytrading strats. I do KNOW that my impossible automated strat created by myself and two of my peers, had a great day today and has made money intraday consistently since its inception.

"As Anaconda correctly points out..." Really? You use a quote from a self-proclaimed failed trader as proof that you're right? If we're basing arguments off of what Anaconda said, then position trading over a multi-day timeframe is impossible too...why...because he couldn't do it of course.

I don't know anyone personally that trades intraday futures profitably, but I know of a few individuals that make a killing as intraday futures traders. The idea that its impossible is ridiculous. If you've ever seen Floored, then you would be familiar with guys that traded futures intraday quite successfully. You said, "day trading ES and other index futures is an absolute pipe dream, pursued by the lazy and uneducated." That's a statement that really says more about you than the people that you're trying to pass judgment on.

Considering Paul Rotter or "The Flipper", well: http://www.rotterinvest.com/. Enough said.

Comparing the percent return of a overnight position trader to that of a daytrader is like comparing apples to oranges. Daytraders don't measure returns in that capacity.

By the way, how could you possibly have made money on that euro short that lasted only a day since there is no possible way to discern a price pattern intraday. Intraday price patterns are random according to your empirical research right? Oh how quick you forget about the fractal nature of markets. If a price pattern is unreliable intraday, then how is that conclusion not automatically extrapolated to a daily, a weekly, or a monthly chart? How could a random intraday price pattern result in a non-random price pattern on a daily chart? The pieces create the whole. I expect academic researchers to make ridiculous claims, but for a self-proclaimed trader to say such things causes me to question whether you actually trade or not...doesn't really matter either way. An ignorant statement is an ignorant statement.

Markets and edges change for all traders no matter the timeframe. All traders have to adapt to markets, no matter the timeframe. Daytraders have existed ever since markets existed. Look it up and get over it.

 

[EMRGLOBAL]

And because this is an anonymous board :

_________________________________________

Na, only the pikers stay anonymous. I have met many ET traders that are good traders, that are wealthy and have made many connections and group creations via ET.

I would say that yes, 90% of the ETer are clowns, parttime Desk Jocks who try and trade, wana be ballers, shot callers and the only money they make is the Bi monthly ck from their employer.

You just have to get to know who is real, who is successful as a trader or in life in general.

 

[asiaprop]

so your "empirical evidence" of your 15 traders counts and the empirical evidence I cited of years in the business at investment banks, hedge funds, ..., is academic? Please dont make me laugh.

You are one of the typical guys on here who has actually nothing to say but who read about the "Flipper" years ago and his success back then and has not the slightest inkling of how he does nowadays. Funny. He is pretty much out of business. Why? Because of the exchanges and how they tilted the game in the favor of algos. But I dont think you are in the slightest informed about that.

Fractal nature of markets? So you are one of those who need to escape into esoteric concepts of markets that are completely unproven? Set up a simple back test on dailies and test for momentum (there are tons of approaches how to do so, you can even google them). Do the same on a 1-minute frequency, then come back and report the statistical properties of both tests. If you have not even done so before I claim you are a lazy ass who has not even looked at the most basic concepts. The same you can do to test for co-integration on realized volatilities.

Haha, so if you dont measure your success rate in terms of returns, draw downs, over a longer period of time then how do you measure it? Sorry but let me assure you that its the exact same measures otherwise returns would not be comparable. Nobody in this industry cares how you make money, people care what return you generate over a longer period of time at what risk level. So, please do not try to debate the undebatable.

Price clearly broke through its support plus it made new historical lows. Every position trader, when initiating a new position has to enter the trade at some point in time. You are a master at twisting words. And I think you know precisely what I was talking about you just refuse to acknowledge that. I claimed that hundreds of those typical guys, who trade 1 or 2 ES contracts in and out per day, trying to fade the markets, trying to make a point here or there, are those who dont last long, who have flat to negative track records over a longer period of time. Even if they make some they hugely trail successful position traders.

And yes, of course have day traders existed for a long time and will exist for a long time, because a whole industry is sucking on your tits. I never denied that. I claimed that most of the day trading guys are losers, losers because of their losing track record and refusal to change anything about it because they believe they will eventually find the holy grail.

;-)

Quote from TrueProp:

Your years in finance have nothing to do with knowledge regarding the financial success of individual independent traders that trade prop, prop-in-disguise, or at their homes in pajamas.

I love when people like you quote random empirical evidence from academia conducted by guys that have never traded a stock. The idea that any one person, whether from academia or a professional, is capable of performing a study that can prove that the odds are totally against ANY SORT of day-trading approach is a clear ridiculous statement. There are more ways to take money out of the market than any of us can imagine. Of the 100 or so traders in my office, and of the guys that I know from other firms, I can easily think of about 15 different approaches that are profitable for the traders that trade them. But I'm glad you've backtested all possible daytrading strats. I do KNOW that my impossible automated strat created by myself and two of my peers, had a great day today and has made money intraday consistently since its inception.

"As Anaconda correctly points out..." Really? You use a quote from a self-proclaimed failed trader as proof that you're right? If we're basing arguments off of what Anaconda said, then position trading over a multi-day timeframe is impossible too...why...because he couldn't do it of course.

I don't know anyone personally that trades intraday futures profitably, but I know of a few individuals that make a killing as intraday futures traders. The idea that its impossible is ridiculous. If you've ever seen Floored, then you would be familiar with guys that traded futures intraday quite successfully. You said, "day trading ES and other index futures is an absolute pipe dream, pursued by the lazy and uneducated." That's a statement that really says more about you than the people that you're trying to pass judgment on.

Considering Paul Rotter or "The Flipper", well: http://www.rotterinvest.com/. Enough said.

Comparing the percent return of a overnight position trader to that of a daytrader is like comparing apples to oranges. Daytraders don't measure returns in that capacity.

By the way, how could you possibly have made money on that euro short that lasted only a day since there is no possible way to discern a price pattern intraday. Intraday price patterns are random according to your empirical research right? Oh how quick you forget about the fractal nature of markets. If a price pattern is unreliable intraday, then how is that conclusion not automatically extrapolated to a daily, a weekly, or a monthly chart? How could a random intraday price pattern result in a non-random price pattern on a daily chart? The pieces create the whole. I expect academic researchers to make ridiculous claims, but for a self-proclaimed trader to say such things causes me to question whether you actually trade or not...doesn't really matter either way. An ignorant statement is an ignorant statement.

Markets and edges change for all traders no matter the timeframe. All traders have to adapt to markets, no matter the timeframe. Daytraders have existed ever since markets existed. Look it up and get over it.

 

[asiaprop]

yes I give that to you, if I came across saying nobody can ever make money day trading then you are right, there is a small hand full that does. But that's exactly the issue. An incredibly small group fuels the pipe dreams for the dumb, educated, and lazy morons on here, which in my opinion hugely exceed the 90% mark. Just look at the posts. There are people with thousands of posts, yet they don't even know how to calculate returns on the simplest of simple asset classes, an index futures contract. It is hard to beat the idiocy you come across in almost every thread. Most people have NEVER tested trading strategies on the back of real historical data and in a rigorous fashion yet they come up with all kinds of funny claims and ideas such as TrueProp, who apparently also never tested ideas much, yet when challenged throws Jack Hershey type "fractal markets" terms at you. Give me a break.

The only thing that keeps me here is the entertainment and occasional extremely good laugh and entertainment.

Quote from EMRGLOBAL:

And because this is an anonymous board :

_________________________________________

Na, only the pikers stay anonymous. I have met many ET traders that are good traders, that are wealthy and have made many connections and group creations via ET.

I would say that yes, 90% of the ETer are clowns, parttime Desk Jocks who try and trade, wana be ballers, shot callers and the only money they make is the Bi monthly ck from their employer.

You just have to get to know who is real, who is successful as a trader or in life in general.

 

[TrueProp]

Quote from asiaprop:

so your "empirical evidence" of your 15 traders counts and the empirical evidence I cited of years in the business at investment banks, hedge funds, ..., is academic? Please dont make me laugh.

You are one of the typical guys on here who has actually nothing to say but who read about the "Flipper" years ago and his success back then and has not the slightest inkling of how he does nowadays. Funny. He is pretty much out of business. Why? Because of the exchanges and how they tilted the game in the favor of algos. But I dont think you are in the slightest informed about that.

Fractal nature of markets? So you are one of those who need to escape into esoteric concepts of markets that are completely unproven? Set up a simple back test on dailies and test for momentum (there are tons of approaches how to do so, you can even google them). Do the same on a 1-minute frequency, then come back and report the statistical properties of both tests. If you have not even done so before I claim you are a lazy ass who has not even looked at the most basic concepts. The same you can do to test for co-integration on realized volatilities.

Haha, so if you dont measure your success rate in terms of returns, draw downs, over a longer period of time then how do you measure it? Sorry but let me assure you that its the exact same measures otherwise returns would not be comparable. Nobody in this industry cares how you make money, people care what return you generate over a longer period of time at what risk level. So, please do not try to debate the undebatable.

Price clearly broke through its support plus it made new historical lows. Every position trader, when initiating a new position has to enter the trade at some point in time. You are a master at twisting words. And I think you know precisely what I was talking about you just refuse to acknowledge that. I claimed that hundreds of those typical guys, who trade 1 or 2 ES contracts in and out per day, trying to fade the markets, trying to make a point here or there, are those who dont last long, who have flat to negative track records over a longer period of time. Even if they make some they hugely trail successful position traders.

And yes, of course have day traders existed for a long time and will exist for a long time, because a whole industry is sucking on your tits. I never denied that. I claimed that most of the day trading guys are losers, losers because of their losing track record and refusal to change anything about it because they believe they will eventually find the holy grail.

;-)

Lol. I really am a master at twisting words. If trading hadn't worked out, I was actually headed to law school.

At the end of the day, we'll just agree to disagree man. What we're disagreeing about I'm not all that sure. I know that most daytraders fail. Most swing traders fail. Most portfolio/hedge fund managers underperform.

I don't care how any one else makes money or measures returns. As long I do well in my daytrading, my automated continues to perform, and my momentum trading performs, I really have nothing to complain about. One thing I learned early on was that my competitive nature sometimes caused me to push trades that weren't there to make more than the guys sitting next to me. Expensive lesson. I compete with myself now. I constantly seek to improve.

I know that ultimately my momentum trades are far more scalable than the majority of my daytrades and long-term, I don't want to sit in front of the screen and daytrade --- unless there is an environment like 2007-2008 where there is an opportunity to make 5 digits or more per day. But odds are we won't see an environment like that again...although I wouldn't be surprised with the way things are going these days.

By the time I'm 29 I can see the majority of my activity being dedicated toward momentum trading. I've been preparing for that. I have the skill of daytrading, I worked hard to attain it, and I'm proud to have it. Incredibly successful daytraders do exist is the main point that I hoped to hammer home.

I'm only 27, by the time I'm your age, I'll be managing my momentum trades from an Android cell phone or an iPad on the beach.