YM Traders

jackbyrd....... although there may be people that think they have "newly" discovered knowledge...not realizing it has been around and used like an old whore during the mining years in the old west........... it does not mean others, who are less experienced traders, don't benefit from it. To assume that its an old strategy or idea, and therefore not worth sharing.... it totally leaves out brand new traders that are coming onto the scene. Just like when books get bad reviews because they have no new ideas... well for someone just starting out... it could be a treasure trove. Everyone starts somewhere. Alot of ideas that you may think are good.... may be over my head, and i cant benefit from. Ideas that i think are good... while useless to you, may be over a new traders head. None of this means old ideas and strategies are money makers.... its just a rung in the ladder of knowledge to the new trader.

Its all relative.
 
Quote from lilduckling:

jackbyrd....... although there may be people that think they have "newly" discovered knowledge...not realizing it has been around and used like an old whore during the mining years in the old west........... it does not mean others, who are less experienced traders, don't benefit from it. To assume that its an old strategy or idea, and therefore not worth sharing.... it totally leaves out brand new traders that are coming onto the scene. Just like when books get bad reviews because they have no new ideas... well for someone just starting out... it could be a treasure trove. Everyone starts somewhere. Alot of ideas that you may think are good.... may be over my head, and i cant benefit from. Ideas that i think are good... while useless to you, may be over a new traders head. None of this means old ideas and strategies are money makers.... its just a rung in the ladder of knowledge to the new trader.

Its all relative.
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yes, fair enough lil duckling, I appreciate your humility. I found the tone of our friend, Pekelo to be rather inane. He seemed to be seeking personal gratification and attention in return for some rather mundane concepts and ideas. Obviously, there is nothing wrong with discussing concepts and ideas, however I think it is rather myopic for said individual to categorize them as "innovative" or "unique". Let's just agree that the majority of ideas, strategies, technicals, seasonals have been discovered and that one is merely repeating what has once been said and articulated by others. As such, the "self" promotional aspects of distributing such information can be removed and/or minimized. Good day.
 
I have just finished the overnight gap statistics for January. If you are interested, the thread is called MR statistics in the Strategy section.

The score for January is 9 downgaps, 6 upgaps and 4 flats. I have to note that there seem to be an updrift after midnight, but several times it fizzled out by the morning, just like last night, when YM futures dropped 20+ points between 4am and 7 am...

As a conclusion of this midnight rally experience I have to say:

1. Looking at the whole overnight movement, there is no statistical preference for upgaps. Quite to the contrary, at least in January. Over the long run it is close to 50-50, as it is pointed out by backtest in the MR stats thread.

2. Looking at rally after midnight, there is a preference, but because it tends to fizzle by early morning one has to be awake to catch it and the average upmovement was only about 10-15 points, not worths of the time spent....

3. There ARE black swans. In this case serious (50 points)downgaps that don't even get filled on the same day. In this month we actually had 2 of them. There was a 3rd big downgap, but that one got filled after the open.

So if anyone has any other myth to be tested, feel free to post it and I am going to take a look at it....
 
Pekelo....Re MRC: I am new to the YM futures but there seems to be some easy pickings occasionally at night in relation to the futures price and fair value. Scalped it once myself. Used limit order because from watching slippage seems to be horrible. May be something you want to look at.
 
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