YM Traders
- Thread starter volente_00
- Start date
This is exactly why I trade off of cash charts since there is no premium to adjust for.
The fair value narrows the closer it gets to roll-over day which was Thursday. The YM fair value on Tuesday for example was under $1.00. Yesterday it was $74.29 and will get closer to cash every week....
I too watch the cash chart and apply the YM pivots to it. It worked beautifully yesterday. R1 was 11100. Add the $74.29 fair value to it and you get the YM high for the day. The $INDU high was 11098.99. Went short @ 11172 and cut out all of my earlier losses
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EDIT: I watch the $INDU chart but trade off of the YM chart. Unsuccessfully thus far I might add ;-) It's getting better though. Got a horrible fill one time scalping off the $INDU chart because of the YM chop.
I too watch the cash chart and apply the YM pivots to it. It worked beautifully yesterday. R1 was 11100. Add the $74.29 fair value to it and you get the YM high for the day. The $INDU high was 11098.99. Went short @ 11172 and cut out all of my earlier losses
.EDIT: I watch the $INDU chart but trade off of the YM chart. Unsuccessfully thus far I might add ;-) It's getting better though. Got a horrible fill one time scalping off the $INDU chart because of the YM chop.
so if u had earlier losses how is your idea working day in and day out.? sounds around 50%........just very curious.......by the way don't get too hung up on pivots and s/r.........u will eventually kick them out......if ur goal is to make money long term........the ones that watch the ym while they trade the ym might be the dumb ones......like porgie..........i am just stupid enough to think that i should see the instrument being traded as the primary focus.......then, i could certainly be wrong........all here make fun of me, so what do i know?
..sometimes what i read is so far away from logical thinking its painful..very rare do i comment on forums anymore cause of nutters and egos etc ...im gonna comment on the use of cash charts to play futures..probably cause my mates got stuck in traffic and im bored with an hour or so to kill ...so..
disadvantages of using cash(only) to trade futures.
1. unless you have a real time feed..ie updates with every trade from all 30 stocks and concludes in a cash market representation...you are trading with out of date snapshots...we all are to some extent..but why hinder more than need be.get or construct a real time feed.if not use cash as a snapshot onlyfor levels etc.get that ym chart on screen.you will get crap fills if you dont and end up chasing market without knowing.
2.there is no issue with fv and the premium on dow or any market.this just shows a total lack of understanding in what it truly represents and how it can and should be utilised.there is so much power in knowing real time prem of the dow and its related markets.it tells many valuable stories throughout the day.
3.ym leads the cash quite a fair bit.you can argue about size of markets having to be leaders etc..but this is not the only component of a leading market...theres also perception..if traders...on any market watch the movements for ym etc ..then they have influence and can lead.
4.you are missing out on the price and volume information of the futures market. and as it leads a lot ..it is vital to understand...you are losing a massive real time edge if you have no comprehension of the price and volume within your given market.also...i don't see many cash feeds with good total ..real time volume data for the 30 stocks.
5.finally...man...this is the damn market your playing...yes the cash can have leading influence also...but these are the players your up against...if you were about to play a soccer match(god that hurts to say soccer and not football)...you wouldn't research another team you werent playing would you..."were playing liverpool this week...so ive made a dossier on arsenal"...oh dear.know the traders your up against.
.....run both cash and ym....get a fast cash..understand what the premium and fv are telling you....know how the opponents think thru price movement and volume....but if you've only got a a screen the size of an old lcd watch....for goodness sake make its the market your playing.
cheers mark j
disadvantages of using cash(only) to trade futures.
1. unless you have a real time feed..ie updates with every trade from all 30 stocks and concludes in a cash market representation...you are trading with out of date snapshots...we all are to some extent..but why hinder more than need be.get or construct a real time feed.if not use cash as a snapshot onlyfor levels etc.get that ym chart on screen.you will get crap fills if you dont and end up chasing market without knowing.
2.there is no issue with fv and the premium on dow or any market.this just shows a total lack of understanding in what it truly represents and how it can and should be utilised.there is so much power in knowing real time prem of the dow and its related markets.it tells many valuable stories throughout the day.
3.ym leads the cash quite a fair bit.you can argue about size of markets having to be leaders etc..but this is not the only component of a leading market...theres also perception..if traders...on any market watch the movements for ym etc ..then they have influence and can lead.
4.you are missing out on the price and volume information of the futures market. and as it leads a lot ..it is vital to understand...you are losing a massive real time edge if you have no comprehension of the price and volume within your given market.also...i don't see many cash feeds with good total ..real time volume data for the 30 stocks.
5.finally...man...this is the damn market your playing...yes the cash can have leading influence also...but these are the players your up against...if you were about to play a soccer match(god that hurts to say soccer and not football)...you wouldn't research another team you werent playing would you..."were playing liverpool this week...so ive made a dossier on arsenal"...oh dear.know the traders your up against.
.....run both cash and ym....get a fast cash..understand what the premium and fv are telling you....know how the opponents think thru price movement and volume....but if you've only got a a screen the size of an old lcd watch....for goodness sake make its the market your playing.
cheers mark j
You make a great point there Porgie and you should watch the chart that you trade. I like the cash chart because it is smoother and sometimes shows sure-fire signals on my indicators that the YM doesn't. Watch both of them while trading....I don't trade strictly off of pivots but strongly believe what "They" said in his journal. "Support and resistance are all there is, everything else is just a giver of confidence."
Put the PP and Market profile numbers on your chart. They will definitely come into play everyday. Having the discipline to trade them is another matter. I'm new to the YM and still trying out different things. Working with Volume Profile now. Started with small account to get the real feel instead of paper trading for any length of time.....
Every morning I plug in the previous days PP and Market Profile and it's just one of the charts I watch....
Ingnore the indicator I'm checking out today on the bottom of the charts.
YM Chart
INDU
I like the cash chart because it is smoother and sometimes shows sure-fire signals on my indicators that the YM doesn't. Watch both of them while trading....I don't trade strictly off of pivots but strongly believe what "They" said in his journal. "Support and resistance are all there is, everything else is just a giver of confidence." Put the PP and Market profile numbers on your chart. They will definitely come into play everyday. Having the discipline to trade them is another matter.
I'm new to the YM and still trying out different things. Working with Volume Profile now. Started with small account to get the real feel instead of paper trading for any length of time.....Every morning I plug in the previous days PP and Market Profile and it's just one of the charts I watch....
Ingnore the indicator I'm checking out today on the bottom of the charts.
YM Chart
INDU
if a system shows you the entry picture you have in your head and that very picture over time has been tested and proven to produce many pts very close to each time with extreme accuracy could someone tell me why i need anything else? trend days it works.........wide/narrow range days it works............whipsaw/ and very ugly days it works....no adjustments no tweaking no curve fitting in other words...........YM trading between market open and close.........tell me why i need to know s/r pv's and i will read......... i am not saying they are not helpful to maybe most, but i don't need them....or want them .....if top of message is not a lie, then a lot of truth is there.........
i "almost" agree.
i daytrade YM. it's what i do. love stocks. do a little daytrading, and a lot of INVESTING (longer time frame) in stocks, but when it comes to daytrading/scalping, nothing beats YM for consistent profit taking opportunities imo.
(except for the Nikkei in the last few months, which has been unreal - but i digress)
you are right about support and resistance, but i'd take it a step further (or a step back) and say SUPPLY and DEMAND are all that matters.
it is supply/demand inbalances that CREATE support and resistance. IOW, at levels where there is more supply than demand, that is SEEN as resistance. Sellers are more aggressive at these levels - willing to sell into the bid (and/or having preset limit orders at these levels ). That is seen on a chart (or on the tape) as resistance. It is simply a matter of sellers being more aggressive than buyers. To say there is "more buyers than sellers" as some do is in fact wrong, since for every contract sold, there is a contract bought, and vice versa. It's zero sum.
Similarly, support is "created" when demand outstrips the supply at these price levels, and buyers become more aggressive - taking the offer- which offers 'support'.
IME, when I started looking at scalping the YM as an example of exploiting inequities between supply and demand at key price levels, that is when i became profitable.
Most indicators (RSI, MACD, etc.) only tell you what happens after the fact, and imo, are almost useless for scalping, except as a general heads up, because by the time they give a signal - the move is already over.
For me, I pay attention to Volume @ Price (and.or Time @ Price - market profile), and order flow (time/sales).
In regards to the difference between the cash index, this is very useful. You will note that in extreme turning points, YM will often overshoot INDU. this is logical, because YM is an example of (mostly) short term traders actions, combined with some long time frame participants, and in the short term traders world, emotion sometimes (to put it mildly) overshoots logic.
This offers price opportunity, especially if you monitor divergences in YM vs. INDU and./or ES vs. SPX. When the price of the futures diverges too much from the cash index, then of course, that is opportunity for arbitrage trading and program trading that necessarily will bring prices back into line. It HAS to be within that narrow fair value range, or it offers zero risk arb profits, and that is why it is a constant balancing game. I just remember that futures LEAD cash (generally speaking) , not the other way around.
Supply and Demand- it's what's for dinner.
All in my humble opinion of course
i daytrade YM. it's what i do. love stocks. do a little daytrading, and a lot of INVESTING (longer time frame) in stocks, but when it comes to daytrading/scalping, nothing beats YM for consistent profit taking opportunities imo.
(except for the Nikkei in the last few months, which has been unreal - but i digress)
you are right about support and resistance, but i'd take it a step further (or a step back)
and say SUPPLY and DEMAND are all that matters.it is supply/demand inbalances that CREATE support and resistance. IOW, at levels where there is more supply than demand, that is SEEN as resistance. Sellers are more aggressive at these levels - willing to sell into the bid (and/or having preset limit orders at these levels ). That is seen on a chart (or on the tape) as resistance. It is simply a matter of sellers being more aggressive than buyers. To say there is "more buyers than sellers" as some do is in fact wrong, since for every contract sold, there is a contract bought, and vice versa. It's zero sum.
Similarly, support is "created" when demand outstrips the supply at these price levels, and buyers become more aggressive - taking the offer- which offers 'support'.
IME, when I started looking at scalping the YM as an example of exploiting inequities between supply and demand at key price levels, that is when i became profitable.
Most indicators (RSI, MACD, etc.) only tell you what happens after the fact, and imo, are almost useless for scalping, except as a general heads up, because by the time they give a signal - the move is already over.
For me, I pay attention to Volume @ Price (and.or Time @ Price - market profile), and order flow (time/sales).
In regards to the difference between the cash index, this is very useful. You will note that in extreme turning points, YM will often overshoot INDU. this is logical, because YM is an example of (mostly) short term traders actions, combined with some long time frame participants, and in the short term traders world, emotion sometimes (to put it mildly) overshoots logic.
This offers price opportunity, especially if you monitor divergences in YM vs. INDU and./or ES vs. SPX. When the price of the futures diverges too much from the cash index, then of course, that is opportunity for arbitrage trading and program trading that necessarily will bring prices back into line. It HAS to be within that narrow fair value range, or it offers zero risk arb profits, and that is why it is a constant balancing game. I just remember that futures LEAD cash (generally speaking) , not the other way around.
Supply and Demand- it's what's for dinner.
All in my humble opinion of course