The best signal was number 4 confirmed by the Bearish divergence on the Histogram. number 5 was confirmed by the Histogram as well although not a divergence.One could have traded just number 4 with very high prob of success and just loaded up contracts that one time. Very good chart and analysis--I would like to see you post the trades in real time however to confirm that you are not just backtesting.
YM Traders
- Thread starter volente_00
- Start date
Buy1Sell2,
What do you like to see on RSI to confirm a Bollinger Band entry....a hook back from overbought or oversold?
Also, what do you like to see on MACD to confirm a Bollinger Band entry? You've already pointed out that you like divergence. When you don't have divergence, such as on #5, do you need to MACD lines to cross (histogram to cross the zero line) to confirm a BB entry?
Thanks. Appreciate your postings.
Oh...and what period do you like on RSI? And I'm assuming 12 and 26 on MACD.
I just use the standard 14 period for RSI. What I like to see on RSI is 2 or 3 successively higher (sometimes equal with divergence) troughs when I buy and peaks when I sell. Just coming back from OS/OB is not enough for me generally. Divergences are the preferred method with RSI as well--Perhaps even easier to see. As far as the MACD , I really don't pay a lot of attention to the signal lines expect to note in general if they are below or above zero and how far. I wil be less likely to buy if they are well above 0. --and vice versa. I pay much more attention to the Histogram. I really like the Histogram when it turn up or down froma very small peak. These are generally the biggest moves. And it stands to reason--it shows less volatility which is a characteristic of a larger move coming, just as in the contraction of the Bollingers.
How do other YM traders go about playing the opening gaps? Which price do you use as a closing price to determine the gap? Do you use the cash market close and use the YM to fade that gap? Do you enter at the 9:30 open or during the overnight session? Where would you place stops?
Does the gap need to be at least X amount before considering a gap play?
Thanks in advance to anyone with thoughts on the subject. Also, thanks to anyone who posts ANY type of trading strategy. It's greatly appreciated to see what other traders use.
Does the gap need to be at least X amount before considering a gap play?
Thanks in advance to anyone with thoughts on the subject. Also, thanks to anyone who posts ANY type of trading strategy. It's greatly appreciated to see what other traders use.
For example--if you could go to the Globex Eur/USD (GEC) chart and look at an hourly chart, there is a Class B bullish divergence on RSI and a Class A Bullish divergence on Histogram at the 1 AM EST bar. I would have taken this trade with a stop of course had I been awake. However, I would have been very careful since I think the overall trend is down from 122.91. I am more likely right now looking for a place to short on hourlies. That's enough for EURO I realize this a YM thread.
Finally we are getting some real discussions. Good!
The main reason I posted the chart because one poster said yesterday wasn't good for swingtraders, although the market waved nicely up and down like 5 times, perfect for swingtraders.
Now let's get back to the chart. I noted that #3 wasn't a valid entry, nevertheless at that point the market was 30 points below the previous sell signal. So just how greedy are we if we are not statisfied with a 30 points gain on 1 entry???
#5 sure, there was an earlier entry. But even if you subtract 15 points from that entry you still end up with a 20 points gains until entry X occured.
Entry X, as I noted, still dropped 10 points before turning back. So one should have got out at least at breakeven. The reason I didn't number that entry was because it didn't end with touching the opposing side of the BB.
Now I never really explained how I use the BB. And for free I probably will not here. It is not always touching but the crossing back that gives the signal.
Now you guys ask me to test it more or post signals? I gave you the tools, do your homework yourself. I think I already have given enough to ponder about...
Oh one more hint, also check with a 10 minutes chart. Less signals, bigger swings....
The main reason I posted the chart because one poster said yesterday wasn't good for swingtraders, although the market waved nicely up and down like 5 times, perfect for swingtraders.
Now let's get back to the chart. I noted that #3 wasn't a valid entry, nevertheless at that point the market was 30 points below the previous sell signal. So just how greedy are we if we are not statisfied with a 30 points gain on 1 entry???
#5 sure, there was an earlier entry. But even if you subtract 15 points from that entry you still end up with a 20 points gains until entry X occured.
Entry X, as I noted, still dropped 10 points before turning back. So one should have got out at least at breakeven. The reason I didn't number that entry was because it didn't end with touching the opposing side of the BB.
Now I never really explained how I use the BB. And for free I probably will not here. It is not always touching but the crossing back that gives the signal.
Now you guys ask me to test it more or post signals? I gave you the tools, do your homework yourself. I think I already have given enough to ponder about...
Oh one more hint, also check with a 10 minutes chart. Less signals, bigger swings....
long YM from 10942 .... looking for a gap fill 
stopped out at 921
Quote from lilduckling:
stopped out at 921
The gap game doesn't work like that anymore.. this was a big part of my strategy and it has stopped being useful about a week ago.
It might come back though, for the last few years a gap-fill-strategy in the YM was pretty reliable. Maybe it's just a phase.. maybe the YM is just a woman..
