YM Traders

i have looked into on this issue, i have found that (1) daily range is highly correlated with volume (2) volume and range tend go through cycles, both shorter-term (multi-day) and seasonal/secular (summer, xmas etc.) (3) when a market is moving up, there is an added commpression effect on volatility, in additional to the regular cycles (4) the compression in volatility in an up-moving market is assymetrical to its expasion in a down-moving market (common knowledge).

i think the behavior over the last couple of days is not out of the ordinary, if you understand the volume/range/volatility cycles -
these are the areas i have looked at - i have found that the understanding of these factors is important as volatility directly affects the performance of many trading strategies.


Quote from blackguard:

anyone notice how the market has completely changed the past two days? very difficult to scalp and very difficult to trade.

completely different market from just one week ago.
More...
 
"anyone notice how the market has completely changed the past two days? very difficult to scalp and very difficult to trade.

completely different market from just one week ago."



Does not seem any different to me. Either get on the same side as the trend or be very nimble and profit from shorting before retracements on the up days.
 
Quote from volente_00:

"anyone notice how the market has completely changed the past two days? very difficult to scalp and very difficult to trade.

completely different market from just one week ago."



Does not seem any different to me. Either get on the same side as the trend or be very nimble and profit from shorting before retracements on the up days.
More...

I agree with Volente.

I was actually looking at the YM today, I saw a lot of support and resistance areas. I estimated with one contract if you are a pretty good trader, you could have made 800 to 1,000 *multiply however many contracts you trade*. I don't think I could have made that, especially since I only get to trade the last hour, but I thought today looked very good to trade, especially around 10 - 11 and 1 - 3:30 I believe, I don't have the chart in front of me right now, but I thought it was very good.

But that is just my opinion.

EDIT: I don't particularly scalp though... I usually just trade from support to resistance and vice-versa, is that considered short-term swing trading or what?

Thanks
 
I personally do not think that someone scalping 1 YM contract
could have made this amount today
heck the high / low range was only 60 or so points

-I estimated with one contract if you are a
pretty good trader, you could have made 800 to 1,000-
 
10:30 is a key reversal time many time in the market, which sometimes reverse back around 11:00 If you ever watch some of my posted trades notice that the majority of them are around this time. As far as scalping 800-1000 on 1 car that is a stretch.
But there were numerous opportunites to scalp 10-15 points all day long today.
 
volente,

You seem to have your arms around it pretty nicely.....my system gives the trades mechanically so I don't get too hung up on times, but certainly agree one should be aware of what have proven to be time events more often than not............9:00 CST reversal was proven to be a 85% reversal probability by my old boss almost 5 years ago and guess what? I don't know and don't really care but it is almost every day event YM...He traded ES only....11:00 he said no trades until 1:00 ....too strict for me but ES trading it was pretty much the best policy.........of course, he had 10 traders trading 5 es contracts each....he never figured it out....he was a gambler in every other way ............5 pt targets with 10 pt stops....inverted risk/reward...........$35,000 loss one day made my stomach churn, for him it was "cost of doing business"......Have a wonderful trading day........JMOWERY...DON'T LET THE WOULDA COULDA SHOULDA BUG BITE YOU....PLEASE DON'T THINK YOU ARE THE FIRST TO SEE WHAT U R SEEING........ UNIQUE PATTERNS AND OPPORTUNITIES EACH MOMENT....MILLIONS HAVE LOST SEEING/THINKING THE SAME STUFF.....5% MAKE MONEY CONSISTENTLY......MAYBE
 
So it can be summarized that on the contract switch over date, there will be a gap up. And prices will subsequently fill it during the market hours.
 
not understanding. when do the futures roll over the thursday before exp? also when do the dec's and sept prices come togethere? there's still a big gap. like the sept ym's are 10599 and the dec's are 10642
 
"WILL BE" IS ABSOLUTE AND IS TOTAL ANTICIPATION/GAMBLING.....HOPE IT WORKS FOR YOU .......I TALK TOO MUCH ...... THAT'S WHY OLD PEOPLE ARE SHUNNED....IGNORE BUTTON WORKS FINE.......
 
'the market is differrent this week'

here is an example: today the obvious thing to do was to buy YM around 606 about 5 minutes ago. Last week that trade would have worked for maybe 20 points.

today? you would be down 10 points.

very differrent market. very tricky market.
 
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