YM Magic!

[vanzandt]

Its not about being one of the good ones or not.

But saying that making 500% a year just to cover you commissions is realistic for retail traders, is just really silly guys.

Maybe 0.1% of traders can do that if they have found some arb strategy that guarantees making money.

But its not even worth considering as realistic for 99.9% of retail traders.

Saying otherwise is something that a newbie trader would come out with.

I don't see where you are getting 500%/year.
Again, I have never traded YM.. but if he's (YMmagic) is making $25 a point (not sure how many contracts that is), and a round trip is $8ish.... and he gets 20 points on one of his winners, ie $500... $8 doesn't sound like much to me. Am I missing something? Again, I don't trade it.

 

[algofy]

Its not about being one of the good ones or not.

But saying that making 500% a year just to cover you commissions is realistic for retail traders, is just really silly guys.

Maybe 0.1% of traders can do that if they have found some arb strategy that guarantees making money.

But its not even worth considering as realistic for 99.9% of retail traders.

Saying otherwise is something that a newbie trader would come out with.

Few here seem to understand that % returns are massively different for small accounts vs large accounts.

 

[speedo]

I don't see where you are getting 500%/year.
Again, I have never traded YM.. but if he's (YMmagic) is making $25 a point (not sure how many contracts that is), and a round trip is $8ish.... and he gets 20 points on one of his winners, ie $500... $8 doesn't sound like much to me. Am I missing something? Again, I don't trade it.

A round trip of $8 is way too much, a futures commission should be under $4. Currently I am trading the NQ, average win is 19 ticks and average loss is 10 ticks, my commission costs amount to a tick and a half per pair of trades. We day traders don't concern ourselves with such as % per year or use risk mitigation strategies which work on a portfolio( diversification and hedging) but dilute profits for trades. We have to think in terms of cash flow. How much leverage to use is a personal thing but it changes the game.

 

[southall]

Currently I am trading the NQ, average win is 19 ticks and average loss is 10 ticks,

How many trades are you doing a day? That is the important stat which you dont mention.

 

[speedo]

Averaging around 10, which is more than the average 6 signals on the ES. But the ES got thin on the bone for the latter half of 2016.

 

[algofy]

Averaging around 10, which is more than the average 6 signals on the ES. But the ES got thin on the bone for the latter half of 2016.

So according to southhall it's impossible with your metrics to be a winning trader, am I correct SH?

 

[speedo]

So according to southhall it's impossible with your metrics to be a winning trader, am I correct SH?

I think he is pretty good at ferreting out the charlatans but doesn't understand the nature of day trading.

 

[southall]

Averaging around 10, which is more than the average 6 signals on the ES. But the ES got thin on the bone for the latter half of 2016.

What you have is pretty close to the holy grail.
2500 trades a year in NQ with almost 2:1 win size ratio.
And 1500 trades in ES, which i presume with similar ratio,

You should be making 7 figures a year easy then.

But how many other retail traders can realistically do that kind of trading?

 

[speedo]

What you have is pretty close to the holy grail.
2500 trades a year in NQ with almost 2:1 win size ratio.
And 1500 trades in ES, which i presume with similar ratio,

You should be making 7 figures a year easy then.

But how many other retail traders can realistically do that kind of trading?

I've yet to hit 7 figures which I believe is doable with the ES but not with the NQ as it will not accommodate enough size to avoid getting slugged on slippage. My R/R was more modest on the ES but the win/loss percentage was better....until July of 2016. There are many traders who make more than I do but comparisons are not productive...we should only measure performance to our own history.

 

[algofy]

What you have is pretty close to the holy grail.
2500 trades a year in NQ with almost 2:1 win size ratio.
And 1500 trades in ES, which i presume with similar ratio,

You should be making 7 figures a year easy then.

But how many other retail traders can realistically do that kind of trading?

Depends on the win rate, care to share speedo?