YM Magic!

TheTrue1 said:
Good Morning Mr. 888. My man! Simply by your post and analysis, I can tell you are an accomplished trader. I like that! Are you saying that a 10 point move or a 5 minute delay gives me a 70 percent chance of winning? That I somehow then know what the market will do next. If that were the case, why not just take the entry mentally and wait 5 minutes for a10 point favorable move, then actually place the trade. That would certainly produce a winner right? There is no certainty in the prediction of the market. Here is the reason for delay at times. First and foremost, I am very good at seeing a loss in momentum in the markets. One of the best you will ever know. Secondly, you may notice all my trades are on a smartphone. A cheap one at that. I don't even own a laptop or computer. Then, placing an order on collective2 is a process by smartphone. I have to type in the sl and pt after I have decided to place a trade. Many times, really most times, the market has moved from my desired entry. So I have to retype and reset my sl and pt to reflect the30 point sl and pt. Do you know how many times I have missed 8 even 10 points favorably for my intended entry, trying to ensure I get the 30 point parameters. Many my friend. That is what occured in trade17. Take a look at the C2 platform. Place trades from your phone trying to keep the 30 points and get your desired entry. Add to that, the quotes are delayed. So I also use a live feed for up to date market price. Add to that, the site I use for the minimal technical analysis I employ. So here's the picture. I first watch the market and assess the techs using investing.com. At the same time I am back and forth to my live feedl because investing.com market price lags a bit. When I decide it is time to trade, I switch to collective2. Of course I can no longer see the live market feed or the technicals. All the while the market is not sitting still. After I get the trade entered I have to screenshot it then switch over to ET to post it. All on one phone, one screen visible at a time. On top of that, I am usually at work running a machine for injection molding(plastics). With a quota to meet and a no use of cell phone policy. I ask you to try this process without the job I have. Your post will not appear 2 or3 minutes after you take a trade.
Now, here are some things you haven't noted. I have never lost two trades in a row. The 10000 dollar beginning balance has only once been breached and that was around the third or fourth trade in the amount of 2 to3 hundred dollars. My market entry price on a trade is seldomly touched even through out the session, after I have excited the trade. I'm averaging around 6% a day. I have one day which ended with loss. That was on Friday. Around 250 to300 dollars. Less than three percent of the beginning balance. My risk now averages 30 ticks. Usually around 750 dollars if I allow the stop loss to be hit. What do you think the odds are of me losing the principle. I can answer that. Zero to none. I would have to lose around 7 trades consecutively to give back the profit. That will never happen.
Just a little insight into what it looks like from my shack in Nigeria.
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Eehhhh, that's weird....my BS meter has begun to flicker....
 
TheTrue1 said:
Good Morning Mr. 888. My man! Simply by your post and analysis, I can tell you are an accomplished trader. I like that! Are you saying that a 10 point move or a 5 minute delay gives me a 70 percent chance of winning? That I somehow then know what the market will do next. If that were the case, why not just take the entry mentally and wait 5 minutes for a10 point favorable move, then actually place the trade. That would certainly produce a winner right? There is no certainty in the prediction of the market. Here is the reason for delay at times. First and foremost, I am very good at seeing a loss in momentum in the markets. One of the best you will ever know. Secondly, you may notice all my trades are on a smartphone. A cheap one at that. I don't even own a laptop or computer. Then, placing an order on collective2 is a process by smartphone. I have to type in the sl and pt after I have decided to place a trade. Many times, really most times, the market has moved from my desired entry. So I have to retype and reset my sl and pt to reflect the30 point sl and pt. Do you know how many times I have missed 8 even 10 points favorably for my intended entry, trying to ensure I get the 30 point parameters. Many my friend. That is what occured in trade17. Take a look at the C2 platform. Place trades from your phone trying to keep the 30 points and get your desired entry. Add to that, the quotes are delayed. So I also use a live feed for up to date market price. Add to that, the site I use for the minimal technical analysis I employ. So here's the picture. I first watch the market and assess the techs using investing.com. At the same time I am back and forth to my live feedl because investing.com market price lags a bit. When I decide it is time to trade, I switch to collective2. Of course I can no longer see the live market feed or the technicals. All the while the market is not sitting still. After I get the trade entered I have to screenshot it then switch over to ET to post it. All on one phone, one screen visible at a time. On top of that, I am usually at work running a machine for injection molding(plastics). With a quota to meet and a no use of cell phone policy. I ask you to try this process without the job I have. Your post will not appear 2 or3 minutes after you take a trade.
Now, here are some things you haven't noted. I have never lost two trades in a row. The 10000 dollar beginning balance has only once been breached and that was around the third or fourth trade in the amount of 2 to3 hundred dollars. My market entry price on a trade is seldomly touched even through out the session, after I have excited the trade. I'm averaging around 6% a day. I have one day which ended with loss. That was on Friday. Around 250 to300 dollars. Less than three percent of the beginning balance. My risk now averages 30 ticks. Usually around 750 dollars if I allow the stop loss to be hit. What do you think the odds are of me losing the principle. I can answer that. Zero to none. I would have to lose around 7 trades consecutively to give back the profit. That will never happen.
Just a little insight into what it looks like from my shack in Nigeria.
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One easy way to post fast in ET is to use a short form, example:

Long 20882, SL=PT =30.

The time stamp in thread will take care of the trade entry time without any dispute from anyone.
I did this before, it takes less than 20 sec for a post :)

No point to attach the screen shot as it doesn't means anything, this day any pic can be faked using a free software from internet.


The more you try to explain with excuses (only have phone to trade, no laptop, Coll2 is slow and etc etc etc) why you can't post in live, the more you are losing credit and make you more sound like scam and snake oil salesman that look for dumb excuses.

I wish you really a real +20% trader than another Nigeria scam. All the best.
 
galvinlee888 said:
One easy way to post fast in ET is to use a short form, example:

Long 20882, SL=PT =30.

The time stamp in thread will take care of the trade entry time without any dispute from anyone.
.
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And what does it prove? That you did or did not take the trade! Or that you got the direction right? Who does that help? No one! Maybe an ego booster for the poster or a pat on the back from the other ET'ers. What are trading forums for?
 
Mtrader said:
The problem is that in general people who post trades, don’t share their knowledge. So you are rather an exception. But don’t expect to receive the knowlegde behind the trades as you will probably never receive it. Your challenge to the OP is already an indication of this.
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Well i guess time will tell the tale. He may throw out a morsel or two! You did! I liked your concept of flow charting out a trade to automate it or narrow it down to steps to follow. I use mind charts in training in another field. Similiar to flowcharting except flow charting involves usually binary decision making.
 
galvinlee888 said:
One easy way to post fast in ET is to use a short form, example:

Long 20882, SL=PT =30.

The time stamp in thread will take care of the trade entry time without any dispute from anyone.
I did this before, it takes less than 20 sec for a post :)

No point to attach the screen shot as it doesn't means anything, this day any pic can be faked using a free software from internet.


The more you try to explain with excuses (only have phone to trade, no laptop, Coll2 is slow and etc etc etc) why you can't post in live, the more you are losing credit and make you more sound like scam and snake oil salesman that look for dumb excuses.

I wish you really a real +20% trader than another Nigeria scam. All the best.
More...
Not attempting to prove anything. Just stating facts. Through all this I maintain a very good win rate. I will post as you described. I like it. Saves time. Imagine if I were doing that the last 19 trades. The results would still be the same. What you are overlooking is the market can or may do anything in 1, 2 or 3 minutes. In seconds even. But you somehow give me credit at being able to cheat the market. No one can cheat the market. The time stated in C2 at trade entry is what it is. It doesn't change what the market outcome will be. No matter how it's posted. But I like your way best. Thanks.
I am done with words guys. Trades will speak for themselves.
 
volpri said:
And what does it prove? That you did or did not take the trade! Or that you got the direction right? Who does that help? No one! Maybe an ego booster for the poster or a pat on the back from the other ET'ers. What are trading forums for?
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I know you try to learn from some "expert", but before you do that, you need to find out if you are following a real master or just another Nigeria Scam.

Real time live calls will prove everything.
 
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TheTrue1 said:
Afternoon ET! Man I love ET! I love trading! This is a place where people talk trading 24/7. What more could you ask for. I have a few points to make or address. Themickey stated he doesn't use a bunch of charts or a slew of indicators. Nor do I. Too many indicators can be misleading. A lot of traders use a ton of them yet cannot reach or maintain profit. First rule: Simplicity is key. One can miss out on trades waiting for all of their many indicators to define the setup. You must get ahead of the market. The sooner you can predict a market move, the better. Entry and exit is everything. Then, you must marry your market. Get to know what makes it smile, cry, angry, happy, etc. I haved lived with the YM for nearly 8 years. I thought of her even when she wasn't open for business. Longed for her to reopen. My first broker account was with Global futures. I got smashed! Blew many accounts. After a couple of years of very few high points. I slacked off a bit. She and I still shared the same home but didn't speak as much. Though she never left my thoughts. A friend who knew I was in love, mentioned Nadex and binary options. I checked it out. It felt a little like I was cheating on her. But in truth I wasnt. I was still trading the YM under a different name, with a little different approach. For several years I had a great run with my mistress. But for some reason it didn't seem as challenging as the YM futures. Eventually, the mistress and I would part. But she left me with an even better understanding of my wife(YM futures). In trading the YM initially, I picked up things that were very useful when I cheated with the mistress. In return, I left with very useful info from the mistress, for trading and analyzing my true love. Anyways...enough of my love life.
Mr. Volpri and a few others have asked for insight on my approach. Today, I will not give too much away. But here are a few things I employ.
1. The YM and Dow Jones are closely related in movement. Place the charts on top of each other, and you will find they match 95 to 100% of the time. We all are well aware of the Dow Jones being the underlying indicative. So it would serve one well to be very familiar with the Dow and its components. As the Dow moves, so goes the YM. Sometime ago through a lot of number crunching, I came across something. Maybe most of you already know this. Though I doubt it. Because the conventional trader, stocks or futures, approach the market conventionally. Usually attempting to detetmine where the market is headed or will end up at some point. I also thought it would be helpful to determine where the market will not go or end up at session end.
Do this...check historical data on how often the Dow/YM closes within 20 points of the previous close. Go back 6 months, a year, 2 years. You will find that some months it never occurred. But on average, around 80 percent or so of the time, it settles outside of the20 point parameter. You are probably thinking, what the hell does that matter. Well, in trading Nadex, whom offers 20 point intervals on strikes, it could mean a lot. If one could manage to trade the strikes within the 20 point parameters of the previous close. Example: previous close 20875. Available Nadex options, 20900 20880 20860 20840 20820 and so on. Meaning the 20 point parameters are 20895 and 20855. Your watchlist strikes..20880 and 20860. Because they fall inside of the20 point parameter. A buy of the 20880 in a market trending up, means the market would have to close less than 6 points up for you to lose. A sell of the 20860 in market trending down, means the market will have to close inside of 16 points down in order for you to lose. You have an 80 to 90% probability that closing inside the parameters will not occur. A trader only needs to determine direction. And apply their choice of technical analysis.
Now, how does this play out in futures. Sevral ways my friends. Assume you are in a trade or considering entry. The market is in an upward trend. It's 35 points up at the moment. You consider your techs and the time of day and remaining economic calendar events. None remaining or low volatility events only. You enter a trade long 35 points from the previous close. Meaning you are 15 points from a very high probability close outside the20 points. You do an sl of 30points. Placing you 5 points away from the previous close. Your entry 15 points from a sacred high probability close. Which that in itself is a 15 point loss at close assuming the probability holds up.
Now, check this. How many times does the market exceed a 65to80 point move and return to the previous close. You will find the odds are heavily in your favor that it doesn't most times. This works both ways. If a market has less than a60 point move up or down, it is more apt to close inside the20 point parameters. This was evident on Friday. The market previous close was 20882. The high was 20928 and the low I think was20858. That's a total range of 70points. 46 up and 24 down. It lost it's momentum between 1:20 and 1:45. Indicating, through technical analysis also, that we had experienced our session high. If I were able I would have shorted the market during that time. A settle outside of60 points up was highly unlikely. And the thin range indicated a close near the previous close. Possibly inside the20 point parameters. The market closed 20870. 12 points down. The thin range indicated this to me before it occurred.
There are several other valuable ways to use the previous close info I am speaking of. I will elaborate more in the future.
In the meantime, check the historical data I mentioned.
It's Sunday, and the market opens in a few hours. I'm excited.
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Thanks. I appreciate that! Thst is something I can check out.

I trade the ES and sometimes the NQ. Here is a tidbit: The NQ tends to be more directional that the ES and I have used it as a leading indicator for the ES. Not all of the time but enough to be useful in making profits. That is, if trading the ES from a 5 minute chart it doesn't hurt to take a peek and see what the NQ is doing on the same time frame before taking a position. Often the acceleration of the NQ's MOMENTUM will precede the ES and the ES will follow.
 
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