In time you will discover that you have never seen one like me. But you will probably never admit it.
YM Magic!
- Thread starter TheTrue1
- Start date
To know if it is true or false you should first become a profitable trader. You cannot judge on something you never experienced.
But there are always people who know everything about evertyhing.
To some degree i can agree but not 100%. I have posted many times trades in hindsite and real time trades (that I was gonna take if X did Y). What I have tried to do in nearly all the cases is give a rationale behind my thinking and why I took the trade. That is, an explanation of the reason I took the trade and what led me to make the decision. Most of the time people just put "i shorted at 23124 and i covered at 23120." That doesn't help anyone on the forum learn anything whatsoever, except, that perhaps the person does know something about trading. Could it not be considered that such posting is the type that really does indicate that the person seeks admiration or affirmation for their agility and brillance in trading? They get all kinds of likes. "Great trade." "Good job." They respond with "thanks." However their trade has nothing in it to help anyone on the forum. At all. Period. It doesn't really matter if I post it after the fact. If I took it I took it, period. What is more important is my explanation of "why" and "how" I took the trade. I care less if someone posts real time or hindsite. I want to learn "why" they did "what" they did and "what" can i glean from their technique to better my own trading. I have enough sense to do due diligence and check out their trade AND explanation and hopefully arrive at a conclusion if they indeed have a valid premise ...edge, or not. All trading books and courses are hindsite. Yet we gobble them up and praise the authors or lamblast them if they don't fit or worldview of trading. I don't know about you guys but I tend to always learn more from people that provoke me by challenging my deepest assumptions. I have learned alot even from from noobs. Thats right noobs! I have had to "unlearn" alot from veteran traders! Thats right! Old farts like me who have been around for what seems like ages. I don't care who I learn something from. What is important is that I learn. That is why i quizzed the OP on this thread ASKING "when are you going to show us how or why you took the trade." I am not interested in just seeing a blotter. I prefer to see an explanation. So I ask again "when are you going to tell us "why" you took the trade? Give us your reasoning. Teach me. Most of the rest it seems like just want to rail on you. Teach me. You got a student right here. I try to teach folks what I do in my trades. I take the time to annotate them. The time to mark up the up the chart. The time to type up the explanations. I leave it entirely up to them to decide if I have a valid premise or not. I have said and will say again; there are no secrets in trading. You see the very same data I see unless your broker or data feed is screwing you...your chart opens and closes at the same time mine does if we are in the same time zone or basically the same instant if in another time zone. So we all basically seeing the same thing. You can prove this to yourself by have two separate futures account open at the same time on the same instrument and in the same time frame. They will basically be tick for tick with some minor lagging ...etc depending on the quality of the data feed. But generally when a bar is finished forming and closes it will look the same on both accounts. So you see what I see and I see what you see. There are no secrets. There is only ignorance of how to process what you see. PA is PA. I'll explain freely what I am doing with it. You explain what you are doing with it and why. Otherwise, forums are a waste of my time and your time and are just a platform for ego and trolling.
So, Mr ym magic OP I challenge you to tell us the mechanics of your trade. Your blotters are pretty but I am more interested in knowing the "why". I don't care if you started trading yesterday. You may have discovered something that may benefit my trading. So....dish it out ...you got my ears...i am listening...i will make up my own mind about you modus operandi. I am a big boy. I can do it.
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The problem is that in general people who post trades, don’t share their knowledge. So you are rather an exception. But don’t expect to receive the knowlegde behind the trades as you will probably never receive it. Your challenge to the OP is already an indication of this.
That is in a very hard condition to place a trade. The market is hard enough even for people with a super computer and fios. One suggestion is to use a window tablet (7or 8 inch with window 8 or 10) and a 4G hotspot, (7 or 8 inch tablet can fit into pocket) , and with that you can look at a chart comfortably and place a trade smoothly.
Being that your trading at work, and using your phone. Why are you using Collective2? There are far better mobile trading applications than that, offered for free by many brokers. The only reason I can think your using Collective2 is because its a "signal selling site", and you can sell your "strategy" on the site for people to follow for a monthly fee. Not saying you are, but everything is somewhat suspicious.
Afternoon ET! Man I love ET! I love trading! This is a place where people talk trading 24/7. What more could you ask for. I have a few points to make or address. Themickey stated he doesn't use a bunch of charts or a slew of indicators. Nor do I. Too many indicators can be misleading. A lot of traders use a ton of them yet cannot reach or maintain profit. First rule: Simplicity is key. One can miss out on trades waiting for all of their many indicators to define the setup. You must get ahead of the market. The sooner you can predict a market move, the better. Entry and exit is everything. Then, you must marry your market. Get to know what makes it smile, cry, angry, happy, etc. I haved lived with the YM for nearly 8 years. I thought of her even when she wasn't open for business. Longed for her to reopen. My first broker account was with Global futures. I got smashed! Blew many accounts. After a couple of years of very few high points. I slacked off a bit. She and I still shared the same home but didn't speak as much. Though she never left my thoughts. A friend who knew I was in love, mentioned Nadex and binary options. I checked it out. It felt a little like I was cheating on her. But in truth I wasnt. I was still trading the YM under a different name, with a little different approach. For several years I had a great run with my mistress. But for some reason it didn't seem as challenging as the YM futures. Eventually, the mistress and I would part. But she left me with an even better understanding of my wife(YM futures). In trading the YM initially, I picked up things that were very useful when I cheated with the mistress. In return, I left with very useful info from the mistress, for trading and analyzing my true love. Anyways...enough of my love life.
Mr. Volpri and a few others have asked for insight on my approach. Today, I will not give too much away. But here are a few things I employ.
1. The YM and Dow Jones are closely related in movement. Place the charts on top of each other, and you will find they match 95 to 100% of the time. We all are well aware of the Dow Jones being the underlying indicative. So it would serve one well to be very familiar with the Dow and its components. As the Dow moves, so goes the YM. Sometime ago through a lot of number crunching, I came across something. Maybe most of you already know this. Though I doubt it. Because the conventional trader, stocks or futures, approach the market conventionally. Usually attempting to detetmine where the market is headed or will end up at some point. I also thought it would be helpful to determine where the market will not go or end up at session end.
Do this...check historical data on how often the Dow/YM closes within 20 points of the previous close. Go back 6 months, a year, 2 years. You will find that some months it never occurred. But on average, around 80 percent or so of the time, it settles outside of the20 point parameter. You are probably thinking, what the hell does that matter. Well, in trading Nadex, whom offers 20 point intervals on strikes, it could mean a lot. If one could manage to trade the strikes within the 20 point parameters of the previous close. Example: previous close 20875. Available Nadex options, 20900 20880 20860 20840 20820 and so on. Meaning the 20 point parameters are 20895 and 20855. Your watchlist strikes..20880 and 20860. Because they fall inside of the20 point parameter. A buy of the 20880 in a market trending up, means the market would have to close less than 6 points up for you to lose. A sell of the 20860 in market trending down, means the market will have to close inside of 16 points down in order for you to lose. You have an 80 to 90% probability that closing inside the parameters will not occur. A trader only needs to determine direction. And apply their choice of technical analysis.
Now, how does this play out in futures. Sevral ways my friends. Assume you are in a trade or considering entry. The market is in an upward trend. It's 35 points up at the moment. You consider your techs and the time of day and remaining economic calendar events. None remaining or low volatility events only. You enter a trade long 35 points from the previous close. Meaning you are 15 points from a very high probability close outside the20 points. You do an sl of 30points. Placing you 5 points away from the previous close. Your entry 15 points from a sacred high probability close. Which that in itself is a 15 point loss at close assuming the probability holds up.
Now, check this. How many times does the market exceed a 65to80 point move and return to the previous close. You will find the odds are heavily in your favor that it doesn't most times. This works both ways. If a market has less than a60 point move up or down, it is more apt to close inside the20 point parameters. This was evident on Friday. The market previous close was 20882. The high was 20928 and the low I think was20858. That's a total range of 70points. 46 up and 24 down. It lost it's momentum between 1:20 and 1:45. Indicating, through technical analysis also, that we had experienced our session high. If I were able I would have shorted the market during that time. A settle outside of60 points up was highly unlikely. And the thin range indicated a close near the previous close. Possibly inside the20 point parameters. The market closed 20870. 12 points down. The thin range indicated this to me before it occurred.
There are several other valuable ways to use the previous close info I am speaking of. I will elaborate more in the future.
In the meantime, check the historical data I mentioned.
It's Sunday, and the market opens in a few hours. I'm excited.
Mr. Volpri and a few others have asked for insight on my approach. Today, I will not give too much away. But here are a few things I employ.
1. The YM and Dow Jones are closely related in movement. Place the charts on top of each other, and you will find they match 95 to 100% of the time. We all are well aware of the Dow Jones being the underlying indicative. So it would serve one well to be very familiar with the Dow and its components. As the Dow moves, so goes the YM. Sometime ago through a lot of number crunching, I came across something. Maybe most of you already know this. Though I doubt it. Because the conventional trader, stocks or futures, approach the market conventionally. Usually attempting to detetmine where the market is headed or will end up at some point. I also thought it would be helpful to determine where the market will not go or end up at session end.
Do this...check historical data on how often the Dow/YM closes within 20 points of the previous close. Go back 6 months, a year, 2 years. You will find that some months it never occurred. But on average, around 80 percent or so of the time, it settles outside of the20 point parameter. You are probably thinking, what the hell does that matter. Well, in trading Nadex, whom offers 20 point intervals on strikes, it could mean a lot. If one could manage to trade the strikes within the 20 point parameters of the previous close. Example: previous close 20875. Available Nadex options, 20900 20880 20860 20840 20820 and so on. Meaning the 20 point parameters are 20895 and 20855. Your watchlist strikes..20880 and 20860. Because they fall inside of the20 point parameter. A buy of the 20880 in a market trending up, means the market would have to close less than 6 points up for you to lose. A sell of the 20860 in market trending down, means the market will have to close inside of 16 points down in order for you to lose. You have an 80 to 90% probability that closing inside the parameters will not occur. A trader only needs to determine direction. And apply their choice of technical analysis.
Now, how does this play out in futures. Sevral ways my friends. Assume you are in a trade or considering entry. The market is in an upward trend. It's 35 points up at the moment. You consider your techs and the time of day and remaining economic calendar events. None remaining or low volatility events only. You enter a trade long 35 points from the previous close. Meaning you are 15 points from a very high probability close outside the20 points. You do an sl of 30points. Placing you 5 points away from the previous close. Your entry 15 points from a sacred high probability close. Which that in itself is a 15 point loss at close assuming the probability holds up.
Now, check this. How many times does the market exceed a 65to80 point move and return to the previous close. You will find the odds are heavily in your favor that it doesn't most times. This works both ways. If a market has less than a60 point move up or down, it is more apt to close inside the20 point parameters. This was evident on Friday. The market previous close was 20882. The high was 20928 and the low I think was20858. That's a total range of 70points. 46 up and 24 down. It lost it's momentum between 1:20 and 1:45. Indicating, through technical analysis also, that we had experienced our session high. If I were able I would have shorted the market during that time. A settle outside of60 points up was highly unlikely. And the thin range indicated a close near the previous close. Possibly inside the20 point parameters. The market closed 20870. 12 points down. The thin range indicated this to me before it occurred.
There are several other valuable ways to use the previous close info I am speaking of. I will elaborate more in the future.
In the meantime, check the historical data I mentioned.
It's Sunday, and the market opens in a few hours. I'm excited.
Hey some of us have bad eyes. Use the space/enter key every 100,000 words or so and start a new line.
I became aware of C2 a couple of months ago. I'm still making mistakes on the platform. It's garbage. It moves slow and at times you have to place your trade several times before it enters it. I would never use C2 to sell signals or autotrade others. The members there are constantly complaining about the kinks in the platform. Also, C2 takes 30% of subscriber fees. Unacceptable. I use them because they are a third party to myself and ET. You can't make up trades there. They do one thing well. They log your trades.