Looks like this other C2 guy you linked (Not the OP of this thread) took some big hits lately.
YM Magic!
- Thread starter TheTrue1
- Start date
Looks like this other C2 guy you linked (Not the OP of this thread) took some big hits lately.
C2 UPDATE....
PLEASE READ THE FOLLOWING:
And Mr. Southall, I have spoken with MB Trading, Gain Capital, and Interactive Brokers. All will allow me too trade 5 contracts with 10,000.
See you next week.
PLEASE READ THE FOLLOWING:
And Mr. Southall, I have spoken with MB Trading, Gain Capital, and Interactive Brokers. All will allow me too trade 5 contracts with 10,000.
See you next week.
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I think this applies to most ET members.
If the difference in commissions makes the difference between loss or profit, it means there is still a lot of work to be done. I mean for the trader, not the broker.
There are brokers that will let you trade 5 or more YM contracts with $10K, but Interactive Brokers aint one of them.
YM margin requirements at IB:
During regular hours (9:30-4pm ET): $3207 per contract
Outside liquid hours: $6415 per contract
https://gdcdyn.interactivebrokers.com/en/index.php?f=marginnew&p=fut
With $10,000 you can trade 3 contracts during regular hours but only 1 contract out of hours.
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OP is right, he is actually nicely up (26% or so) if we only account $5 as commission applied to a return trip. This can be done if one chooses IB on the upper right corner just below Statistics. If you choose Daniels Trading as broker, the system is down -70%. That is quite a difference!
Now I am not exactly sure what the correct autotrader fees are, but according to C2 that ads another extra $9 to the commission per return. If a trader just wants to show his trading ability (instead of trying to trade for others using autotrader) then the IB setting should be used to see his returns.
Since he trades different sizes each time it is a bit harder to account for the whole length of the system, but I did a quick math, he traded about 460 contracts so far, or on average 3.5 per trade. (460/128 trades)
Anyhow 460 x 9 = 4140 should be added to his return to get the app. real value. And switching to the IB broker that actually does that, so instead of down $1860, the chart shows -1860 + 4140 = 2280 (well, 26% on the chart) That is not bad for 3 weeks return.
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That being said, I also noticed something that goes against OP. His very first trade is the biggest, being $1630 or 70 YM points with 5 contracts. He never came close to this profit during the next 120+ trades. The second closest was $1105...
Now why is this important? Because it is not hard to start out with a bang for any system. You make 2 systems, you take 2 opposite positions, and when one is in a nice profit you keep that one and leave the other to die. If you are really into it, you can do it with 4 systems, guaranteeing at least the first 2 trades to be big gainers for 1. And if I subtract that 16% gain from his results, his return is only 7% for the next 127 trades.
In short, 2/3rd of his gains came from the very first trade... Make that what you want...
Now that one can choose monthly charges instead of in every 6 months, this trick is much cheaper to do.
Now I am not exactly sure what the correct autotrader fees are, but according to C2 that ads another extra $9 to the commission per return. If a trader just wants to show his trading ability (instead of trying to trade for others using autotrader) then the IB setting should be used to see his returns.
Since he trades different sizes each time it is a bit harder to account for the whole length of the system, but I did a quick math, he traded about 460 contracts so far, or on average 3.5 per trade. (460/128 trades)
Anyhow 460 x 9 = 4140 should be added to his return to get the app. real value. And switching to the IB broker that actually does that, so instead of down $1860, the chart shows -1860 + 4140 = 2280 (well, 26% on the chart) That is not bad for 3 weeks return.
---------------------------
That being said, I also noticed something that goes against OP. His very first trade is the biggest, being $1630 or 70 YM points with 5 contracts. He never came close to this profit during the next 120+ trades. The second closest was $1105...
Now why is this important? Because it is not hard to start out with a bang for any system. You make 2 systems, you take 2 opposite positions, and when one is in a nice profit you keep that one and leave the other to die. If you are really into it, you can do it with 4 systems, guaranteeing at least the first 2 trades to be big gainers for 1. And if I subtract that 16% gain from his results, his return is only 7% for the next 127 trades.
In short, 2/3rd of his gains came from the very first trade... Make that what you want...
Now that one can choose monthly charges instead of in every 6 months, this trick is much cheaper to do.
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Just wait till you get some real buckaroos on the line. You might be quaking in the boots? Shall i motorhome up over to Dallas and witness initial trades and report back to the Elite super dupper pessimistic members? I could visit my uncle who just won't die (he must be 94 or 95) and at the same time observe you trade from the cell phone???
If my system's profitability would depend on 9$ more or less in commission, I would throw that thing in the garbage.
You are right about the distribution of profits and losses. I always deduct the best X% trades and watch what profit the remaining trades made. The generated profits should be more or less equally distributed over the winning trades, or at least the X% less profitable trades should still generate an reasonable overall profit. Analyze carefully where the profits come from.
If 2/3rd of his gains came from the very first trade, it means that he needed 126 extra trades to boost that profit by 50%. That's very bad.
I browsed some C2 traders records and there are a couple excellent trading records like these two: 1) Mcprotrader, 200% return in 6 months, DD 7%, 100% win month; 2) Simplicity trading, 128% return in 6 months, DD 11%, 100% win month. So here is an interesting idea, if you put your capital evenly around several C2 like 5 of them of these performance, and then autotrade them, would it be more profitable than trading by yourself if you are not quite sure, or it could beat even those very good hedge funds because if you average among those, you could possible get a high return than 100% yearly. Of course some of these records are not quite long, and they are hypothetical. But essentially if you pick the right ones and when you average them you would get a much better EFT of your own with consistent low DD and and high % return and high month win rates. If I had a million dollar, paying $500 to $1000 fee a month, expecting 10% DD but 1 million profit a year without doing anything or spending anytime of my own but just to make sure to pick a reliable broker, I think it is probably worth a try, making a lot of money though not much fun.
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They remind me of the Chorus from a Greek Tragedy.