YM in a Can

New postion:

Net SHORT (1/2 bracket, long reversal bracket at 10026)

Michael B.

P.S. The system will go the entire day waiting for the short to either fail or for the new bracket calculation for the new session. This is early in the day.
 
I truly want to share ideas.

For you more conservative traders....try this:

Analyze MAE and MFE from each "level direction change" and simply play off of them and go flat based on you MAE and MFE.

This levels very rarely get reached and turn against you after a touch. So this would mean a near 100% winrate.

Share with this journal your results. The equation could simply help you pull the trigger and enter a quick trade.

Michael B.

P.S. Making 5 YM points a day with multiple contracts is not that bad.
 
Quote from NihabaAshi:

ElectricSavant,

Since your only considering doing such...

Instead, you may want to consider only doubling down if your trade signal is in the direction of the overall trend.

More...


Never a truer word spoken on ET.
 
Quote from ElectricSavant:

P.S. Making 5 YM points a day with multiple contracts is not that bad.
More...

Not bad at all - most people don't see that.

Good stuff, keep it up. :)
 
The First hour of the YM on Sundays open is not tradeable for retail I guess? So it opens at 19:15(cst) and the bid/ask is jumping all over the place but the last trade is locked. Also this makes it appear there are no gaps with that non-tradeable open.

The equation seems to function ok, but could it be improved by recording the open from 20:15cst instead of what the daily bars show at 19:15(cst)?

Many questions, not many answers yet.

Still net SHORT from 9971.

old long reversal bracket at 10026.
new long reversal brackets at 10049, 9903.

We eeked out 56 YM points/contract today with 2 trades. (cumulative total 448 YM points/contract from inception of this journal)

Michael B.
 

Attachments

Yeah Prince Phillip,

I am thinking that by using a weighted moving average even on the reversals could be quite powerful. Imagine being able to pick up a pullback on single units and then continuing in the trend with double units on the Breakout...sheesh

The WMA would need to be calibrated to change settings with the expected levels and might need to manually set with the different calcs each day. Now that would be total control, can you agree? Please read this carefully, do you folks understand? Let me say it like this. Wide/narrow ranges from the day before cause the levels to be stretched out or squeezed, so just setting a 140wma on 1minute bars would not suffice for both conditions.

Michael B.

P.S. Strategyrunner charges $125.00/hr to write this stuff. This changing WMA makes it more complex.

Quote from Prince Philip:

Never a truer word spoken on ET.
More...
 
Quote from ElectricSavant:



Still net SHORT from 9971.

old long reversal bracket at 10026.
new long reversal brackets at 10049, 9903.

Michael B.
More...

So ive got the following numbers down for tomorrow,

H4 10049 Long breakout
H3 10001 SHORT
H2 9984
H1 9968

L1 9936
L2 9920
L3 9903 LONG
L4 9855 Short breakout


What would happen if tomrrow L3 is never hit but H3 is hit, do you double your current short position, stop the position out, I am unclear.
 
kserra,

Here is what your finished bracket looks like: (I write it on a post-it note on my monitor)

10049 LONG (h4)
9971 SHORT (entry, held over from today)
9903 LONG (L3)

The system is not trading it the way you are suggesting. It just waits for an opposing direction within the bracket and reverses. As you know, technically to reverse one contract requires two contract entries.

Whats on the table for discussion right now is what if the system is short and rises up to 10049 and reverses for a loss and drops back to 10001 (H3) for a second loss BUT the WMA is sloping down?

This is where the system could reverse for four contracts instead of two which would get out of the long and net short two contracts instead of one contract. Then continue the hold until reversal and continue with 2 contracts until you escape with the profit. (note we are speculating that we have not seen 3 consecutive losers while the WMA is showing our trade in the same direction)

The question is won't the WMA change slope if we have already failed and re-entered the direction? But couldn't the WMA be calibrated to stay in the trend based on previous days range? (I am phrasing this wrong but do not know how to verbalize it)

Michael B.

P.S. The position size management applied to this system would be observing an equation divergence from trend. Which could be construed as a pullback from direction giving us the two consecutive losses and would confirm WMA trend.

My first thought was that 2 consecutive losses were enough without the WMA, but NihabaAshi's post educated me a little. Perhaps 2 consecutive losses would not necessarily be a favorable sloping WMA in our direction.
 
Quote from ElectricSavant:

I truly want to share ideas.

For you more conservative traders....try this:

Analyze MAE and MFE from each "level direction change" and simply play off of them and go flat based on you MAE and MFE.

This levels very rarely get reached and turn against you after a touch. So this would mean a near 100% winrate.

Share with this journal your results. The equation could simply help you pull the trigger and enter a quick trade.

Michael B.

P.S. Making 5 YM points a day with multiple contracts is not that bad.
More...

Sorry if this is a stupid question - but what is MAE and MFE?
 
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