YM in a Can

You got me looking at the YM chart. I can say this:
  • The "more narrow" the previous day is the more probable today will be "less narrow" (notice I do not say by how much).
  • The "more wider" the previous day is the more probable today will be "less wider" (notice I do not say by how much).

Michael B.

P.S. Now with this in mind, assuming you agree, how would you apply this to the equations?

P.S.S. We really do not care much about # of points or direction just now. We need to agree on some simple truths. Without knowing the points or direction we can still set the stack of alternating, reversing levels accordingly. Actually, because of PSM we really only care about the consecutive losses caused by incorrectly setting the equations. I find intraday movements impossible to predict and the "kick-off" of a direction is random I believe (notice I do not say that price action is random, there are trends existing, and I believe in them)

Quote from sunnyskies:

I know all that stuff about NR4 and NR7 days... the problem is that fairly often these narrow range days are followed by outside days with whipping action on both side's of yesterday's range. And it happens rather often and I havent found a way around it so I dont buy into the NR7 mantra.
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Try this:
  • How probable is a long entry in the YM when the Dow is already plus 150?
  • How probable is a short entry in the YM when the Dow is already down 150?




Could you say this?
  • It is more probable for a "long" to be profitable if entered when the DOW is plus 40.
  • It is more probable for a "short" to be profitable if entered when the DOW is minus 40.

Michael B.

P.S. Please folks think about this before jumping to conclusions. Please compare those above statements to each other, when thinking.

P.S.S. Remember, this system will reverse if it is wrong, with an increase of one step. It is most profitable when consecutive losers are low. Also trends with pullbacks seem to perform nicely if the levels are in synch. Also long trends work also with alternating losers on the way up or down.
 
Quote from ElectricSavant:

....enough for now, Wifey and I are going for a swim in the community swimming pool....
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It's a 24 hour system. I suggest keeping the wire on your toe, even in the water. You never know.
 
Quotrek, Automation, OCO order on each side of the bracket or a partner to trade it.

Michael B.

Quote from Mr Subliminal:

It's a 24 hour system. I suggest keeping the wire on your toe, even in the water. You never know.
More...
 
Quote from sunnyskies:

I know all that stuff about NR4 and NR7 days... the problem is that fairly often these narrow range days are followed by outside days with whipping action on both side's of yesterday's range. And it happens rather often and I havent found a way around it so I dont buy into the NR7 mantra.
More...

Perhaps it is time for someone to popularize a trading method known as NR7 soup? Or maybe we just keep this little observation to ourselves?
 
Maybe we could call it can opener? :)

Michael B.


Quote from TriPack:

Perhaps it is time for someone to popularize a trading method known as NR7 soup? Or maybe we just keep this little observation to ourselves?
More...
 
Well...

if yesterday was "narrow" then tommorow is likelier to be "wider" so we can stack the levels at wider intervals. vica versa, if yesterday was "wide", tommorow is likelier to be "narrow" so we stack the levels at smaller intervals.

I dunno?
 
Sounds good,

I am working on the equations each evening. Will post here soon.

Michael B.



Quote from sunnyskies:

Well...

if yesterday was "narrow" then tommorow is likelier to be "wider" so we can stack the levels at wider intervals. vica versa, if yesterday was "wide", tommorow is likelier to be "narrow" so we stack the levels at smaller intervals.

I dunno?
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