Yields are crashing - That spells trouble !
- Thread starter Tarzan
- Start date
traders don't care about yield crashing up or down.
and we don't care whether the stock market is deep red or blue or black or rainbow color.
as long as the market moves, traders will be happy.
we are the elitetrader.com members, not eliteinvestor.com members.
you might be the only one worrying unnecessarily.
Yields are crashing - That spells trouble !
--->
Yields are moving - That means trading opportunities!
and we don't care whether the stock market is deep red or blue or black or rainbow color.
as long as the market moves, traders will be happy.
we are the elitetrader.com members, not eliteinvestor.com members.
you might be the only one worrying unnecessarily.
Yields are crashing - That spells trouble !
--->
Yields are moving - That means trading opportunities!
Last edited:
Stocks down, bonds up. Investors getting defensive. How long will that last? Just a correction??
Interesting... I saw a story today about a hedge fund manager saying he is "shorting tech". That story was soon thereafter pulled. I guess "the powers" don't want anyone/investors seeing anything that could make them "not bullish"... ever.
I'd like to see a pullback to SP 3600 (technically significant price level). Should that happen, I'll update with what I think is coming next.
Interesting... I saw a story today about a hedge fund manager saying he is "shorting tech". That story was soon thereafter pulled. I guess "the powers" don't want anyone/investors seeing anything that could make them "not bullish"... ever.
I'd like to see a pullback to SP 3600 (technically significant price level). Should that happen, I'll update with what I think is coming next.
Last edited:
Stocks down, bonds up. Investors getting defensive. How long will that last? Just a correction??
Interesting... I saw a story today about a hedge fund manager saying he is "shorting tech". That story was soon thereafter pulled. I guess "the powers" don't want anyone/investors seeing anything that could make them "not bullish"... ever.
I'd like to see a pullback to SP 3600 (technically significant price level). Should that happen, I'll update with what I think is coming next.
Might not see 3600 for a long while. Please just say what comes after 3600. I can't take the suspense no more.
LOL!
Before I've said in advance what I think might be developing... and have been wrong too often, but occasionally spot-on. What I'm thinking now is likely going to happen... if not at 3600, elsewhere... playing that by ear.
However, the move since the covid low in 2020, "needs" a 4th wave correction... before a 5th wave rally and final top. The 3600 level would be classic for such a dip... that is, to scare the crap out of most investors but not actually break the uptrend.
This is potentially a REALLY big deal.. as it might mark the end of the "Fed interventionist" era in the markets since 2009.
Not suggesting anyone actually do anything about this at this time... just put it on the back burner and keep it in mind.
Last edited:
If you "have it in mind" as it develops, you might have a chance of caching it. The current environment, if understood and played correctly, could have a HUGE impact on the "final rise" and "ultimate top". This a time for all traders to be paying "maximum attention".... could be the biggest trade in a generation*.
*Exactly what does this mean? Since 2009, it's been a "Fed interventionist" market. That is, the "Fed is pumping money and nothing else is more important". At some point, the Fed interventionist thingy will "wear thin", and the markets will reject the "Fed can fix everything with more money printing", mantra.
It's a terrible thing the Fed and Powell have done. It would be justice for Powell to be tarred and feathered.. and run out of town on a rail!!
We could be approaching the end of "Fed overbelief" era... we'll see.
Last edited:
based on 10Y yield movements markets started to price in growth deceleration in May, QT will be probably delayed and this should support equities soon.
No, inflation isn't "obviously rising" at least over the tenor or those bond yields that are going down. Unfortunately stoking fears of inflation is a good political play if you're the party out of power, so if you get your news from that echo chamber then I can certainly understand why you might think inflation is "obviously rising", but the market clearly thinks otherwise. Obviously the talking heads on Fox and their guests aren't actually the same people who make up the majority of capital weighted bond market participants, who knew! It could be the right wing echo chamber is right and the majority of bond market participants are wrong. But if you look at incentives it's far more likely the folks that have billions of dollars on the line maybe, just maybe, have a little more rigor in their thought process than the talking heads who wish to see long term inflation but can just switch to the latest talking points and pretend they never predicted inflation a few months from now if it doesn't happen. Kind of like how deficits and debt were horrible awful bad economy killers from 2009-2017, then we forgot they existed until 2021, now suddenly the deficit and debt is horrible awful again.
Beware of living in an echo chamber, left or right, when it comes to trading. Any time you decide something is "obviously" happening it's probably your echo chamber talking, not your own thoughtful reasoned analysis.
3600 is only 20%. A blip by any means from where we've come off March 2020 lows.
This could easily happen by end of year.