Yet another Peak Oil Article... not very cheery...

J

jsv416

http://www.azcentral.com/arizonarepublic/viewpoints/articles/0406vip-mcpherson0406.html

written by a professor of Conservation Biology from AZ.

Dont know whether I subscribe to his theory. But I guess it is a possibilty... I know there will be major disturbances in the future in regards to energy and resources. How soon and how severe is my question. This professor predicts total social breakdown within 10 years...

Interested in hearing alternative EDUCATED responses, not emotional flameouts...
 
The guy sounds like the typical anti-American loon. He repeatedly refers to the death of the US. Does he not realize that the US is not the only country to need oil? He also makes absolutely no reference at all to extraction of oil from shale, sands, etc. the other methods of getting it.

Not that supply of oil is in jeapordy - not arguing whether this is true or not. But this guy is an alarmist all the way. Looks as though he's trying to sell his books.
 
America decided to extract it's oil last. There is plenty in Floridas waters and the ANWR that hasn't even been touched yet.
 
Quote from jsv416:

http://www.azcentral.com/arizonarepublic/viewpoints/articles/0406vip-mcpherson0406.html

written by a professor of Conservation Biology from AZ.

Dont know whether I subscribe to his theory. But I guess it is a possibilty... I know there will be major disturbances in the future in regards to energy and resources. How soon and how severe is my question. This professor predicts total social breakdown within 10 years...

Interested in hearing alternative EDUCATED responses, not emotional flameouts...
More...

Educated people are predicting meltdowns by nature and economics every day... global warming is a great example of what educated people are good for.... social breakdown here we come.......... again.......
 
He's saying the peak already hit?

"The world peaked at 74.3 million barrels per day in May 2005. The two-year decline to 73.2 million barrels per day produced a doubling of the price of crude."

I read an article this past week putting the estimate at 2012 (it keeps getting pushed forward..). But this guy is saying it was 3 years ago? Something doesn't add up. If the peak already came and went, we'd have heard more about it.
 
Can you imagine the Oil or Green or otherwise resources that could have made us independent of the Middle-east in exchange for the (1,00,000,000,000) one trillion in sunk cost for the folly in Iraq?

Fairly sobering.
 
Hopefully it doesn't come to this, but worse case scenario we've still got 200 years of coal left. Needless to say, we've really got to put a lot into R&D for alternative power sources (especially solar) and all oil price subsidies should be abolished. Technological improvements are the only way we're getting out of this mess. The world will opt for the Easter Island route before sacrificing modern amenities.
 
Can new oil discoveries and alternative energies ramp up to scale soon enough to keep the price of oil near current levels and possibly lower? If new technologies and new discoveries cant ramp up soon enough and what this guy says is true about production falling off in late 2008, is it possible that we could see $200 oil in the very near future (2 years)?? Just thinking out loud... Again this all comes down to whether this guys figures are correct. Who knows where he got them....
 
Quote from Trader KGB:

He's saying the peak already hit?

"The world peaked at 74.3 million barrels per day in May 2005. The two-year decline to 73.2 million barrels per day produced a doubling of the price of crude."
More...

That IS correct. So far. Meaning crude. Total liquids peaked (so far) in June 2006.

It is really like a new record close for the Dow. As long as there isn't a new higher high, the previous highest stands as peak.

The only difference that with inflation you can always have a new record close for the Dow...

http://www.theoildrum.com/files/20080324 Time & Fortune mags.pdf

The above study was sponsored by Shell. Also think about why we have suddenly so many friendly big oil ads on TV....
 
Quote from jsv416:

Can new oil discoveries and alternative energies ramp up to scale soon enough to keep the price of oil near current levels and possibly lower?
More...

No. It is called mitigation, and we should have started it much earlier. Although better late than never. The first step would be for every government to ACKNOWLEDGE the problem and the FACT of peak oil....
 
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