Yesterday’s ominous trading on wall street

[NCC1701]

I'm up 11% account wide since Oct 1. Puts me well above my "bail out" levels so I have no need to sell some really good risk/reward plays in energy short term. When stocks turn the corner almost no one is buying them. Then people reach a dilemma do I jump in at higher prices and often the answer is no. Then you miss the main moves entirely.

When JPM hit $102 the sentiment was brutal; it's now $131. If you bought at $102 or even $110 ( historically good entry points ), you can't really lose at this point. Buying at $131 is a dilemma or even on a pullback at what level ? The real decision is at what price do I feel is a good entry point long term regardless of short term market moves. For JPM it has a history of being a great buy at $110 or less. Repeatedly.

nice work, right- being late to the party makes things hard, but so does being early. This set of circumstances is unique in our history, I am confused to say the least on SPX, energy makes sense as you say.

 

[NCC1701]

Agee with that, curve fitting and cherry picking part that is. While markets do have a memory short term look back is a different story and more predictable - to me at least.

long ago I read an academic study on SPX, they did a correlation function approach and found market memory to be about 20 minutes. I have no opinion, just an interesting anecdote

 

[Statistical Trader]

I was long going into fed, but got taken out. I am extremely nervous being long right now, even though December is statistically the best month of the year. Trivia- I heard one analyst say Oct.27 to Nov. 2 never has lost in something last the last 50 years, well we broke that record. I do like historical data but it is curve fitting and cherry picking to a large degree

The key is being able to tell the difference between 'curve fitting' and legitimate (ie useful) statistics.

There's a lot of garbage out there...

 

[murray t turtle]

Why was the trading ominous yesterday particularly for the naz ?
..... and software was destroyed with one exception ( MSFT ). There was no leadership in the naz.
Finally, commodity stocks were up big- FCX and RIO to name a few.

%%
QQQ is up so little \ have to wait till close today + FRI to see for sure.
Good/ on copper call, actually FCX is silver + gold , molyb....also. NOT a stock tip