Yesterday’s ominous trading on wall street

[Nine_Ender]

Yesterday’s ominous trading on wall street
--->
Yesterday’s auspicious trading around the world



It seemed like
you failed to catch tons of trading opportunities.
So stop listening to your innervoice.


These futures went up and up and up and up :
copper
crude oil
gold
Euro
GBP
aud
Hangseng
dax
CAC40

These futures went up and down and up and down ... :
ES
NQ
YM
Russell 2000
So you should be able to long it and short it and long it and short it and ...

Yes, there were tremendous moves in commodity stocks and some small caps in the last few weeks that many traders on here seem to be oblivious to. Traders obsessed with shorting US indexes as we move into traditionally strong months are likely missing the boat. When I see commodity prices strong on a weaker US$ and other factors some days I'm amazed that some traders are still locked into shorting US indexes or even worse trying to buy UVXY on dips as it drops 30% in a month. Come on now that UVXY trade is brutally bad.

Yes, playing the range on QQQ is possible; so are mining stocks but there are a few copper stocks threatening to break out ( Capstone already did ). Silver broke $20 again. Last time this happened it didn't stick but seasonally it might now. Energy has been on a tremendous run for several weeks. TSX energy there was profit taking Friday after a spike opening on great earnings. Logically, these stocks will move higher from here but that Friday action was annoying and so the short term rally could be derailed by any weakness in Oil price Monday. More likely is the small dip gets immediately bought up Monday imo.

The common theme is if you play the short term ranges you can do well. The exception may be energy the proven fundamentals on earnings may translate in a continued relentless trend up to previous 52 week highs and beyond. Or not such is markets.

 

[SunTrader]

Most of it can be explained by the collapse of Atlassian and its 40+% drop along with a huge move down in the US dollar. Atlassian took all the cloud computing stocks down with it even CRM was down heavy all day. MSFT & AAPL will be the last to fall. Apple has already started to collapse. Most likely they will both fall another 20-30% before its over.

US Dollar dropped almost 2% and that really boosted the GBP, Euro & AUD. I think Silver was up almost 10% at one point. All the commodities followed the Euro higher. I think the dollar move is linked to the rumors swirling around that China will end its lockdowns and that foreigners can take the BioNTech vaccine. They may even end their Zero Covid policy.

If the dollar has peaked then the risk assets will go higher especially the inflation stocks.

IMO dollar is not even close to peaking - just like 10year yield.

 

[zdreg]

“Now Boy, goin fetch me that switch, so I can whoop yo ass before memaw get home. You hear me boy?”

There is an art to insulting. . Learn how to insult properly and maybe someday you will keep a girlfriend.

https://www.elitetrader.com/et/threads/naked-call-writing.370723/page-8#post-5709577
Read the entire thread.

 

[zdreg]

IMO dollar is not even close to peaking - just like 10year yield.

It is a race to the bottom for fiat currencies. Jim Rogers, without a time table, predicts the Yen will collapse.

 

[zdreg]

Inflation type stocks have been doing well.
E.g. food stocks, grains,etc.
What level in interest rates would you say is too high.
That you would not buy food for yourself ?
Thoughtful answers sought.

Your question deserves more exposure. For answers, give it a separate thread of its own.

 

[NCC1701]

Yes, there were tremendous moves in commodity stocks and some small caps in the last few weeks that many traders on here seem to be oblivious to. Traders obsessed with shorting US indexes as we move into traditionally strong months are likely missing the boat. When I see commodity prices strong on a weaker US$ and other factors some days I'm amazed that some traders are still locked into shorting US indexes or even worse trying to buy UVXY on dips as it drops 30% in a month. Come on now that UVXY trade is brutally bad.

Yes, playing the range on QQQ is possible; so are mining stocks but there are a few copper stocks threatening to break out ( Capstone already did ). Silver broke $20 again. Last time this happened it didn't stick but seasonally it might now. Energy has been on a tremendous run for several weeks. TSX energy there was profit taking Friday after a spike opening on great earnings. Logically, these stocks will move higher from here but that Friday action was annoying and so the short term rally could be derailed by any weakness in Oil price Monday. More likely is the small dip gets immediately bought up Monday imo.

The common theme is if you play the short term ranges you can do well. The exception may be energy the proven fundamentals on earnings may translate in a continued relentless trend up to previous 52 week highs and beyond. Or not such is markets.

I was long going into fed, but got taken out. I am extremely nervous being long right now, even though December is statistically the best month of the year. Trivia- I heard one analyst say Oct.27 to Nov. 2 never has lost in something last the last 50 years, well we broke that record. I do like historical data but it is curve fitting and cherry picking to a large degree

 

[Nine_Ender]

I was long going into fed, but got taken out. I am extremely nervous being long right now, even though December is statistically the best month of the year. Trivia- I heard one analyst say Oct.27 to Nov. 2 never has lost in something last the last 50 years, well we broke that record. I do like historical data but it is curve fitting and cherry picking to a large degree

I'm up 11% account wide since Oct 1. Puts me well above my "bail out" levels so I have no need to sell some really good risk/reward plays in energy short term. When stocks turn the corner almost no one is buying them. Then people reach a dilemma do I jump in at higher prices and often the answer is no. Then you miss the main moves entirely.

When JPM hit $102 the sentiment was brutal; it's now $131. If you bought at $102 or even $110 ( historically good entry points ), you can't really lose at this point. Buying at $131 is a dilemma or even on a pullback at what level ? The real decision is at what price do I feel is a good entry point long term regardless of short term market moves. For JPM it has a history of being a great buy at $110 or less. Repeatedly.

 

[Wide Tailz]

incredible whip saw action that stopped traders out of positions.

The job of the market is to make transactions. If enough potential money is lying there it will sometimes spark violently like a bolt of lightning looking for a path to ground, and trigger those sales.

The market dies with price fixing or cornering a commodity / stock. Sales volume goes way down.

The opposite happens with undercapitalized traderz enter with tight stops during potentially powerful events. Props to Ken if he can make this work in these tumultous times, but it's like standing in a field during a storm with a golf club!

 

[SunTrader]

.... I do like historical data but it is curve fitting and cherry picking to a large degree

Agee with that, curve fitting and cherry picking part that is. While markets do have a memory short term look back is a different story and more predictable - to me at least.

 

[zdreg]

Agee with that, curve fitting and cherry picking part that is. While markets do have a memory short term look back is a different story and more predictable - to me at least.

It fits the old cliché hindsight is 100 per cent.