Yesterday's Close?

PennySnatch

PennySnatch

I have a question to the ES traders out there who mark yesterday's close on their charts.

As far as the day session is concerned, what is the statistical probability based on historical data price will "close the gap" back to yesterday's close sometime during the regular session?

Take today for example, the ES traded above yesterday's close (5205) to 5226. Later in the session price fell back to 5205 and bounced off it. I have noticed that price has a frequent tendency to find it's way back to yesterday's close whether it moved above or below it during the day session or whether it gapped above or below it in the overnight.

Please let me know your thoughts. Thanks.
 
Last edited:
PennySnatch said:
As far as the day session is concerned, what is the statistical probability based on historical data price will "close the gap" back to yesterday's close sometime during the regular session?
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Each day of the week is different.

Thursday gaps are most likely to fill that day.

Monday gaps the least likely to fill that day.

During a bull market, gaps down will fill at a significantly higher rate than gaps up, which may never fill.

During a bear market, gaps up will fill at a significantly higher rate than gaps down.
 
depends on the day’s finish, if it is a strong day, up or down, 6pm est to asian opening is likely to be on the same direction, 5-10 points can be easily made.

there is no relationship of levels in the same market.
 
This is for the QQQ gaps - the SPY gaps are practically identical.

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PennySnatch said:
I have a question to the ES traders out there who mark yesterday's close on their charts.

As far as the day session is concerned, what is the statistical probability based on historical data price will "close the gap" back to yesterday's close sometime during the regular session?

Take today for example, the ES traded above yesterday's close (5205) to 5226. Later in the session price fell back to 5205 and bounced off it. I have noticed that price has a frequent tendency to find it's way back to yesterday's close whether it moved above or below it during the day session or whether it gapped above or below it in the overnight.

Please let me know your thoughts. Thanks.
More...

There is no overnight session in futures when it comes to price action. One hour is a very narrow window for anything to happen that would affect them in any way.
 
p0box4 said:
Interesting, do you know of a website that provides data on when the QQQ gapped either up or down, for free if possible since I just want to take a quick look at the data.
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Good grief. Just subtract closing QQQ price from current price of the NQ futures, and there you have it.
 
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