Today produced one of the strongest trend days we have seen in some time. It was fairly obvious that this would occur before the market even opened. Here are a few pointers. First, when you see much larger than average gaps, there is a tendancy for them not to fill. Gaps which are 4 times larger (in percentage terms) than the average gap are very rare and "never" fill. When you have a gap that is 4 times greater in percentage terms than the average gap, you should NEVER fade that gap, you should always get on board at the first opportunity and go with it. This applies to indexes only, not individual shares. Also, Trap Gaps almost never fill. Trap gaps occur when you have the prior days open at or near the days high, and the close at or near the days low, then on today's open you immediatly break yesterdays HIGH. This traps people, they don't have plans and at the VERY LEAST you will get strong short covering. The reverse is true for shorts. This idea also applies to individual stocks. Yesterdays range in the Nasdaq was also an NR7, and breakouts after NR7 days are "always" buyable.
Going into tomorrow you should not expect a repeat of today's performance, though most people probably will..which is exactly why its unlikely to happen. Today we had a WR7 (widest of the last 7 ranges) day, and most generally the days following a WR7 are back and forth. Strong rallies are shortable, strong declines buyable. Extremes buyable or sellable depending what the extreme is (fade it). This is just a general rule, Toby Crabel has great research on both WR7 and NR7.
Hopefully with this thread I'm in some way prooving that there are a good money making opportunities, even in "this market". They are out there every day if you understand gaps, breakouts, retracements etc and when and how to use each to your best advantage.
Brandon