Yep just as I expected more rate cut talks. Quite pathetic.

Saltynuts · Feb 1, 2020

schizo said:
One more drop like today and, man, you can bet we'll see another round of Jim Cramer and his infamous "You have no idea how bad it is out there, no idea!!!"

Baaaahahahaha! What day was that? I hope that was like a 2008 think, else he was going just a weeeee bit overboard lol!!!

RedDuke · Feb 1, 2020

Saltynuts said:
Baaaahahahaha! What day was that? I hope that was like a 2008 think, else he was going just a weeeee bit overboard lol!!!

Yes it was. If you looked at a screen bear sterns were trading 100.

ironchef · Feb 1, 2020

SteveM said:
If US rates go negative, it will basically blow up the global financial system, as every G7 economy will then be capital destructive...not much the Fed can do from 1.5% levels. They will certainly try though.

I am waiting for negative rate so I can refinance my mortgage and get paid every month.

Scataphagos · Feb 1, 2020

S2007S said:
A minor little drop and now all of the sudden rate cut talks are back on the table. Unbelievable.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/01/31/mar...ederal-reserve-for-at-least-one-rate-cut.html

Joe Granville used to talk about the "3 legs up in a bull market.... #1 = disbelief, #2 = belief (everybody understands "why"), #3 = overbelief".

IMV, we've been in #3 for quite some time... "overbelief in the Fed's money printing to solve all ills".

Could be this virus thingy ultimately reveals that money printing WON'T solve any/all problems and that the "overbelief in the Fed" has run its course... that the Fed's cache has finally worn thin... and the market will correct back to some sort of value. (More likely will "overdo that on the downside", too.)

We'll see.

FWIW....

Scataphagos · Feb 1, 2020

ironchef said:
I am waiting for negative rate so I can refinance my mortgage and get paid every month.

LOL! I know you said that "tongue-in-cheek", but that has actually happened in Norway(?)... though I can't imagine the value of having a negative interest mortgage loan on your books... (??) Maybe you charge big fees for such a loan and that compensates for the neg rate?

S2007S · Feb 1, 2020

Scataphagos said:
Joe Granville used to talk about the "3 legs up in a bull market.... #1 = disbelief, #2 = belief (everybody understands "why"), #3 = overbelief".

IMV, we've been in #3 for quite some time... "overbelief in the Fed's money printing to solve all ills".

Could be this virus thingy ultimately reveals that money printing WON'T solve any/all problems and that the "overbelief in the Fed" has run its course... that the Fed's cache has finally worn thin... and the market will correct back to some sort of value. (More likely will "overdo that on the downside", too.)

We'll see.

FWIW....

The feds printing has been the only thing and there will be even more of that coming as they not only print more to sustain the slowdown of the economic woes due to this virus but will also reduce rates. It's a rinse and repeat process. The overbelief has been with this market for a decade now and investors knowing that the fed will keep at it will only keep the rally sustained. And once the cure for this virus is announced the markets will be right back at new highs. I'm thinking end of first quarter or even sooner.

ironchef · Feb 1, 2020

Scataphagos said:
LOL! I know you said that "tongue-in-cheek", but that has actually happened in Norway(?)... though I can't imagine the value of having a negative interest mortgage loan on your books... (??) Maybe you charge big fees for such a loan and that compensates for the neg rate?

Not tongue in cheek sir. Denmark had negative mortgage rate not that long ago, no big up front fee either.

Scataphagos · Feb 2, 2020

ironchef said:
Not tongue in cheek sir. Denmark had negative mortgage rate not that long ago, no big up front fee either.

I saw the story too. Still I can't imagine the financial benefit to the bank for having neg mortgage loan on its books. (Maybe it has something to do with having more mortgage loans... even at neg rate... vs. some other metric. You know like that old story, "we lose money on every deal, but we make it up with volume.")

Scataphagos · Feb 2, 2020

S2007S said:
The feds printing has been the only thing and there will be even more of that coming as they not only print more to sustain the slowdown of the economic woes due to this virus but will also reduce rates. It's a rinse and repeat process. The overbelief has been with this market for a decade now and investors knowing that the fed will keep at it will only keep the rally sustained. And once the cure for this virus is announced the markets will be right back at new highs. I'm thinking end of first quarter or even sooner.

Could be right also. Guess it will depend upon how wide-spread the virus becomes and its ultimate consequences.