Quote from illiquid:
I tried going long a few times in between 109-111, last entry was 112 and holding. I'm bullish on Yen but realize BOJ can print all the yen it likes until it turns into confetti.
Quite a wild day today in all majors.
OK, so if you are short USD/JPY at 112, then you are doing great!
Hopefully, you didn't take out too large a position. I opened a short USD/JPY 100K @ 111.05 but had to reduce it prematurely because for my acct size it added up to 200K total position units - I was WAY over-exposed.
You should do fine as long as your trade size is in right proportion to your acct.
You can either watch for the next 100 point spike down (so far happening each day this week between 12:00PM and 3PM EST) and take profit or you can hold til the end of the month and take more profit.
All my indicators point to a downward trend (yen strengthening / usd weakening - spike meltdown) at least through April.
Let me know how it goes.
The trick here apparently is to short these yen spikes lightly so you can ride out a major spike - going back to 1984 I counted one spike that went up 1440 points but that was not during a USD downward trend. It too eventually went down.
Within a USD downward trend, this current spike is the largest one I have come across.
I entered it (recommendation of a friend - who got bagged on it) thinking it was going to 106.50 MAX then tank. Fortunately I traded microscopic amounts instantly incurring a drawdown as planned - then later shorted heavier as it went up. Been comfortably holding a 200 (and fluctuating) point drawdown presently - average price 109.30. Looking forward to a TP between 105.30 and 100.00
It's taking a longer time than I had hoped for but there definitely is a downward trend now to the spike. It just broke a 3 hour and a 1 day channel.
Sam
