Yen now and through the summer

[Chood]

Quote from Chood:

Overnight, USD/Yen took deep back seat to equities (Nikkei 225), energy, and FOMC. Keep above order on, seeking entry 111.85-.95 spot (or averaging in near futures if/when .__9025 Yen/USD breached).

It’s 7 am Tokyo, 10 hours to go, for those playing at home. Trailed stop to entry ensures no worse than a tie. Right now, trade is 55-65 pips (spot)/45 ticks (futures) above water. Pick your own exit, assuming today doesn’t produce a pucker-free glide to original take profit at or below 110.00 (spot).

 

[Chood]

Quote from Chood:

It’s 7 am Tokyo, 10 hours to go, for those playing at home. Trailed stop to entry ensures no worse than a tie. Right now, trade is 55-65 pips (spot)/45 ticks (futures) above water. Pick your own exit, assuming today doesn’t produce a pucker-free glide to original take profit at or below 110.00 (spot).

Exited: .__9072, plus 52 ticks.

 

[Chood]

Quote from Chood:

Exited: .__9072, plus 52 ticks.

Not enough either side of USD/Yen to commend a position long or short at present, or, perhaps more accurate, there's too much on both sides of the pair to commend a choice. I don't expect price action much under 112.00 (spot) or a move to 113.00.

 

[Depth Trade]

Quote from Chood:

Not enough either side of USD/Yen to commend a position long or short at present, or, perhaps more accurate, there's too much on both sides of the pair to commend a choice. I don't expect price action much under 112.00 (spot) or a move to 113.00.

Hello chood, yes everything was setup to propel yen into 113.00s, then petrols reversed and could be heading north again. >along with metals being at current highs makes for an extremely hard market to position one's self.
... but then again I am long and don't think we came all the way up to 112.75 for no reason. Yen could break 113 with previous sentiment. Then if (commodities) came down, that could open up mid- 113.ss.

 

[Chood]

Quote from Depth Trade:

Hello chood, yes everything was setup to propel yen into 113.00s, then petrols reversed and could be heading north again. >along with metals being at current highs makes for an extremely hard market to position one's self.
... but then again I am long and don't think we came all the way up to 112.75 for no reason. Yen could break 113 with previous sentiment. Then if (commodities) came down, that could open up mid- 113.ss.

Nikkei 225's robust rise of 1600 points since my call to buy the index on July 27th has been Yen positive, very Yen positive. So positive in fact that it is has counterbalanced the dropping surplus of Japan’s current accounts caused by higher energy. That drop (the falling surplus) is Yen negative. Thus, last night's profit taking in Nikkei 225 accounts for most of rise in USD above 113.00 spot. If/when Nikkei resumes move up, Yen will rise rapidly against USD. 113.00 could look like 110.00 in short order. Bottom line: absent retreat in Nikkei 225, Yen anywhere above 112.00 is an excellent long-term long. Above 113.00 even more so.

 

[Ivanovich]

Chood - sorry, saw your original question regarding the MM I use. I use Oanda - have for a couple years now, and I've never been even the slightest bit dissatisfied.

Cheers.

-Ivan

 

[Chood]

Quote from Ivanovich:

Chood - sorry, saw your original question regarding the MM I use. I use Oanda - have for a couple years now, and I've never been even the slightest bit dissatisfied.

Cheers.

-Ivan

OK.

 

[Chood]

Quote from Chood:

Nikkei 225's robust rise of 1600 points since my call to buy the index on July 27th has been Yen positive, very Yen positive. So positive in fact that it is has counterbalanced the dropping surplus of Japan’s current accounts caused by higher energy. That drop (the falling surplus) is Yen negative. Thus, last night's profit taking in Nikkei 225 accounts for most of rise in USD above 113.00 spot. If/when Nikkei resumes move up, Yen will rise rapidly against USD. 113.00 could look like 110.00 in short order. Bottom line: absent retreat in Nikkei 225, Yen anywhere above 112.00 is an excellent long-term long. Above 113.00 even more so.

Depth Trade, I'll add to above that, given the tricky terrain (tricky to me), your call to long USD at 112.55 is a good one, and bold. It's well above water, which is the only comment that counts.

 

[Chood]

Quote from Chood:

Nikkei 225's robust rise of 1600 points since my call to buy the index on July 27th has been Yen positive, very Yen positive. So positive in fact that it is has counterbalanced the dropping surplus of Japan’s current accounts caused by higher energy. That drop (the falling surplus) is Yen negative. Thus, last night's profit taking in Nikkei 225 accounts for most of rise in USD above 113.00 spot. If/when Nikkei resumes move up, Yen will rise rapidly against USD. 113.00 could look like 110.00 in short order. Bottom line: absent retreat in Nikkei 225, Yen anywhere above 112.00 is an excellent long-term long. Above 113.00 even more so.

Today's early skittishness of Nikkei 225 futures on CME evaporated, with futures strengthening to close. Portends strength of cash index tonight (Tokyo business Wednesday).

I will buy Yen/USD, near month CME futures, at Globex open, 5 pm CST, 30 minutes from now, and again if/when contract pierces .__8882, which would be 5 ticks below today's session low. Two contracts at most, one at open and second if entry limit (__.8882) is pierced. If open is below .__8882, I'll be in two at open, same price (presumably).

Sell/stop: 40 ticks from entry (both contracts). Limit (take profit): none. Durational. Expect to stay in trade for many weeks at least.

 

[Chood]

Caveat: I won't sell/stop first contract, bought at open, at anything less than 15 ticks below entry for second contract, which is to be bought if/when .008882 pierced. That math means, for example, if open at .008915, stop for that position would be .008867 (48 ticks, not 40 ticks).