Yen now and through the summer

Chood · Aug 18, 2005

The TICS number for US Treasury inflow from foreign purchases of US treasuries is net of sales and redemptions.

bluehorseshoe77 · Aug 19, 2005

who said anything about the TIC data?? It is old, impractical and pretty useless in my book. The Japanese (gov"t and corps) are one of the biggest holders of US debt whenever the semianual coupon payemnets are paid out the JPY tends to rally...take a look at the chart over the past 5 years..

Chood · Aug 19, 2005

The TICS number is what the news I quoted reports, which is why I refer to it in my answer to your query. You'll see that the post of mine preceding the news (preceding it by several weeks) predicted the lower inflow number, which is why I followed it with the news.

Chood · Sep 19, 2005

USD/Yen should pierce 111.85-95 tonight (Sydney-Tokyo day). Short USD at that price (your choice in that range), stopped 65 pips at 112.50-65 (your choice in the range). No limit. Trail the stop (move it) to entry if/when YEN reaches 111.00, then take profit anywhere below 110.00.

If Globex, look to buy YEN near month (DEC) at .__9020. I'm going to average if/when it pierces .___9025.

Rationale? Japanese exporters, to protect USD earnings, will buy YEN at/above 112.00 spot. If so, entry price is justified.

Very short term trade (for me), meaning should be complete by week's end.

Chood · Sep 20, 2005

Overnight, USD/Yen took deep back seat to equities (Nikkei 225), energy, and FOMC. Keep above order on, seeking entry 111.85-.95 spot (or averaging in near futures if/when .__9025 Yen/USD breached).

Chood · Sep 20, 2005

Quote from Chood:

Overnight, USD/Yen took deep back seat to equities (Nikkei 225), energy, and FOMC. Keep above order on, seeking entry 111.85-.95 spot (or averaging in near futures if/when .__9025 Yen/USD breached).

Spot trade should be filled; futures averaged in. Rationale to be tested. (Two posts above: "Rationale? Japanese exporters, to protect USD earnings, will buy YEN at/above 112.00 spot. If so, entry price is justified.")

illiquid · Sep 20, 2005

There's always a reason to justify a position; the question is how long would you hold if the position goes against you.

Chood · Sep 20, 2005

illiquid,

Five posts up (counting yours and this one) gives 65 pip stop, if spot, from choice within range of entry at 111.85-.95. I'll sell (stop) averaged-in, near-month YEN futures at . __8964.

Trade is non-duration. I will close it, in absence of take profit (see earlier post) or stop, no later than end of Tokyo business Thursday, given Japanese holiday Friday.

riskarb · Sep 20, 2005

Just imagine where the $/Y would be were the Nikkei NOT at NHs

Chood · Sep 21, 2005

Quote from Chood:

Spot trade should be filled; futures averaged in. Rationale to be tested. (Two posts above: "Rationale? Japanese exporters, to protect USD earnings, will buy YEN at/above 112.00 spot. If so, entry price is justified.")

On move to 111.00, stop should have been trailed (moved) to entry (choice within range 111.85-.95). See seven posts above (counting this one), initiating the position.