Yen going forward

Quote from murrica:

looking at 9.77-9.78 or so for multi-year support, and also 15800-15825 on N225 futures for multi-year resist, if we get there.
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Quote from murrica:

would like to loosen it up to ~0.96 to account for blow-off action in us equities, and a bit of further upside in N225.
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N225 CME futures currently 15230 after hitting 15860. Apologize for being off by 7 ticks on the N225 CME futures. Will try to do better analysis next time (looking at multi-decade index charts and extrapolating correctly from cash index to futs would have opened up the estimated 15800-15825 range a bit more).

Assumption is that new swing trends are in place unless extremes are violated. Look for any rallies in equities to get/add short, or dips in JPY/USD to get/add long. Am aware of the correlation study that shows that we might have some further upside in equities going into January -- so, as usual, will be prepared to dynamically modify analysis and position if needed (i.e. if levels are breached, which will hopefully be evident by consolidation or lateral movement at or behind the levels prior to break out).

Standard disclaimer: I am not responsible for your trading decisions or losses, this is for info purposes only.

Happy holiday season to all.
 
i couldn't stand the heat. took 1/4 off at 103.10, the rest at 102.25. there was good reasoning to do that, at least for a partial cover. it was a 1:6 RRR too. but i should have kept half open. now i have to watch it go up and probably never allow me to get back in at a good price. trading is just brutal. i hope taper will provide a decent pullback in equities + the yen pairs. good luck everyone who is still short yen. may it shoot up to 150 while i'm flat.
 
Quote from boskop:

i couldn't stand the heat. took 1/4 off at 103.10, the rest at 102.25. there was good reasoning to do that, at least for a partial cover. it was a 1:6 RRR too. but i should have kept half open. now i have to watch it go up and probably never allow me to get back in at a good price. trading is just brutal. i hope taper will provide a decent pullback in equities + the yen pairs. good luck everyone who is still short yen. may it shoot up to 150 while i'm flat.
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Just curious, what was the heat? Weren't you into a huge honking winner? Hope you didn't listen to my ideas.. what do I know?

Don't wish bad upon yourself, man, cmon! If it gets to 150 surely there would be entry points? That defeatist attitude has certainly held me back, this could be a common issue with technical minds in the imprecise/unpredictable game of trading.

Agree about scaling out and holding the remainder being a viable strategy, particularly for a discretionary trader -- who knows how far a trade might go?

Anyway, was watching /NKD make a perfect falling wedge late last week prior to the huge rally on Friday, while watching /6J make a perfect rising wedge that broke downward (up for your USD/JPY pair) not long afterwards. These patterns likely work only because traders and algos pick up on them (self-fulfilling prophecy); the precision is too great. Just a thought.
 
yea and that wedge would have been the 3rd time i should have added, just like the original plan: add on breakouts of such technical patterns.

the heat was: an overly leveraged position (more than 1:100, but the risk was already removed, and i have a small account so need to "gamble" a bit, as some would say here), DSI at 6 % yen bulls, expecting the tree to be shaken, a significant extreme in COT positioning, upcoming taper + likely equity pullback, multi-decade trendline bounce-off in the nikkei (which has been showing strong correlation with usd/jpy recently), likely end-of-the-month profit taking, end-of-the-year too, with many institutions and hedge funds likely to take profit on this very popular position. and the whole move finally looked very extended to me too, featuring a bearish engulfing daily candle. that's why i thought "get back in again later".

right, i noticed defeatist attitude twice already with similar massivly great winning positions.. and i never really looked back at those charts feeling too gutted (aud/usd and gold+silver short). very difficult to stay clear and refrain from revenge trading.
 
i am back in the market. i see breakouts on hourly charts in USD/JPY, GBP/JPY and EUR/JPY. i'm involved in all of them to diversify risk. skipping commodity block vs yen though... don't feel it
 
Quote from murrica:

Was considering to go long here 6J 9.685, won't take the trade in real money, though. Risk 20 ticks (stop below 9.666).
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go long yen? = playing with FIRE! there is so much energy in this thing
 
Quote from boskop:

go long yen? = playing with FIRE! there is so much energy in this thing
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Yep, not taking the trade :) Would like to be far more selective going forward on live counter-trend trades.

edit: The risk to reward looks decent here based on 3rd grader analysis. (Would be targeting at least 80 pips or more). But, the overarching concern is regarding a devil spike possibly invalidating the protective nature of a market stop loss order, especially at such a price level.
 
i'd rather place an entry order short yen at your suggested stoploss. there sure must be a lot of stops around there that, once hit, may catapult the price higher (maybe, i dunno of course). i'm in buy-the-dip mode in usd/jpy all the way :cool:
 
Quote from boskop:

i'd rather place an entry order short yen at your suggested stoploss. there sure must be a lot of stops around there that, once hit, may catapult the price higher (maybe, i dunno of course). i'm in buy-the-dip mode in usd/jpy all the way :cool:
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cool, let's see how it works. already half way to the stop 9.665 level. edit: 3/4 the way :)
 
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