Yen going forward

M

murrica

Short and sweet.

1) This is not a trading recommendation. My trading ideas might lose you money, and I have no idea if you know how to manage risk. This thread is for informational purposes only, and I am not in any way responsible for any losses that may occur as a result of you reading this thread.

2) Expecting inverse correlation between JPY/USD and stock index to continue.

3) 6J (or J6) on CME is my preferred vehicle. However, you might not be trading the futures. Therefore, please invert if needed.

4) Huge triangle on weekly 6J favors continuation to the downside. Falling wedge on N225 favors reversal to the upside. This is a form of confluence, to me, and sets the initial bias.

5) Currently 6J is trading at 1.0188. Short up to 1.035 with a stop above 1.045 (very wide). Watch for 13k to hold on N225 and NKD futures.

6) Outlook should be a few months or so if trade idea works. Expecting breakdown of triangle in the coming weeks (possibly after a retrace to 1.03 range on 6J, not necessarily though), with breakdown level below 1.005 or so (very approximate, please fine tune).

7) Target is 0.92 - 0.925.

8) Open to being completely wrong with regard to initial bias and stop loss strategy, or partially wrong, for example, with regard to interactions. a. Completely wrong: 6J goes straight up and stock market(s) start breaking down from here. b. Partially wrong, example: N225 and/or NKD break below 13000 but resistance holds on weekly 6J, which caps the index's downside move. c. Other scenarios/interactions might occur; will watch and update plan dynamically (will leave that exercise to the reader in case I do not update this thread).

Good trading to all.
 
I'm with you on the jpy trade, however the 225 hit a huge downtrend line at 16k, my bias on that is short unless it breaks that line.
Jpy could also be forming a bottom rather than a triangle, which ties in with the possibility for n225.
Just possibilities..

But yeah, have been watching the same thing.
Another extended move would be excellent, whichever way it breaks.

Like you, I have a continuation bias on jpy, but willing to roll with a breakout.

:cool:
 
Yes this is quite a situation here technically, I will wait to see what happens next week, it's a big week on top of the Syria situation... flat here for me.

Plenty of time to get with direction in due time.
 
Quote from murrica:


Currently 6J is trading at 1.0188. Short up to 1.035 with a stop above 1.045 (very wide).
More...

We hit 1.035 (1.0357 to be exact).

Currently 9.838, very nice move down, esp after clean break from triangle. However, since we are close to retesting lows, looking at 9.77-9.78 or so for multi-year support, and also 15800-15825 on N225 futures for multi-year resist, if we get there. Reasoning due to int'l correlations and S&P possible topping pattern playing out at this time.

Therefore, the optimistic downside target for 6J might need to be re-evaluated, and will be done so dynamically (as levels hold, or are missed/break).

Standard disclaimer: I am not responsible for your trading decisions or losses. Good trading.
 
i'm riding that jpy wave too, and pretty aggressively. got long on the break of 100 (usd/jpy). i doubled up during the end of that hourly bull flag on 27th, and perhaps i could reasonably double up even once more as we head into higher highs as my technical analysis suggests. that would like add a zero to my account...

the target is open. this trade could go well into 2014 (provided that i have the balls to sit through corrections).

there are so many fundamental reasons to short the yen, it's amazing! and the technicals are clear as day to me too (triangle consolidation breakout).

the only risk i see is a deeper pullback in equities for various reasons, most notably FED taper blabla. and also a larger correction to wash out weak yen shorts (like me). what other risk for yen bears do you guys see?

i will look to diversify and short yen via other currencies as soon as attractive setups present itself (gbp/jpy, eur/jpy).
 
i'm riding that jpy wave too, and pretty aggressively. got long on the break of 100 (usd/jpy). i doubled up during the end of that hourly bull flag on 27th, and perhaps i could reasonably double up even once more as we head into higher highs as my technical analysis suggests. that would like add a zero to my account...

the target is open. this trade could go well into 2014 (provided that i have the balls to sit through corrections).

there are so many fundamental reasons to short the yen, it's amazing! and the technicals are clear as day to me too (triangle consolidation breakout).

the only risk i see is a deeper pullback in equities for various reasons, most notably FED taper blabla. and also a larger correction to wash out weak yen shorts (like me). what other risk for yen bears do you guys see?

i will look to diversify and short yen via other currencies as soon as attractive setups present itself (gbp/jpy, eur/jpy).
 
Quote from boskop:

there are so many fundamental reasons to short the yen, it's amazing! and the technicals are clear as day to me too (triangle consolidation breakout).
More...

Yep, just looking at alternate/contrarian viewpoints to trend continuation on the yen and equities: yen trade is crowded, huge obvious triangle breaking sucks in long term traders as we approach support where support might hold (don't know whether it will), markets might want to price in fed tapering news in advance and top out prior to any such announcement.
 
Quote from boskop:

the target is open. this trade could go well into 2014 (provided that i have the balls to sit through corrections).
More...

FWIW, this is where the original 0.92-0.925 target was determined, just a conservative guesstimate of how fast it would approach support (bottom support line connecting 1998 and 2007 lows).

0.977 is based on the support connecting the 2007 and current 2013 bottom (we are at 0.977 now), but would like to loosen it up to ~0.96 to account for blow-off action in us equities, and a bit of further upside in N225.

Anyway, just watching levels on the charts, and trying to connect the pieces based on whatever limited fundamental info I can find.

xCNCWqz.png
 
i don't think FED taper speculation had much influence in the USD/JPY run. overall, compared to EUR, GBP, AUD, JPY, .. USD did not strengthen very much recently. JPY weakness looks like the main theme based on what's going on in japan. the market may be vary of expecting a taper considering dove yellen nomination. once taper really begins, USD/JPY should really explode upwards (so i hope/plan) along with QE2 introduction in japan (so i dream...)
and what that means for rate outlooks..! heck i could see USD/JPY at 150 if i think about it any further haha

i am not familiar with the chart you posted. is that a JPY index that reflects average performance against all or most other currencies? and is volume picking up if you zoom in on the daily? i would be careful to attach much meaning on the trendline that connects only two points, one of which is very far back in time.
personally i avoid trendlines alltogether. i like price levels of highs and lows. everybody sees these! trendlines you first have to draw and subjectively think about. i respect them only if it's at least 3 or 4 connecting points in regular intervals.

happy trading :cool:
 
Quote from boskop:

i don't think FED taper speculation had much influence in the USD/JPY run. overall, compared to EUR, GBP, AUD, JPY, .. USD did not strengthen very much recently. JPY weakness looks like the main theme based on what's going on in japan. the market may be vary of expecting a taper considering dove yellen nomination. once taper really begins, USD/JPY should really explode upwards (so i hope/plan) along with QE2 introduction in japan (so i dream...)
and what that means for rate outlooks..! heck i could see USD/JPY at 150 if i think about it any further haha

i am not familiar with the chart you posted. is that a JPY index that reflects average performance against all or most other currencies? and is volume picking up if you zoom in on the daily? i would be careful to attach much meaning on the trendline that connects only two points, one of which is very far back in time.
personally i avoid trendlines alltogether. i like price levels of highs and lows. everybody sees these! trendlines you first have to draw and subjectively think about. i respect them only if it's at least 3 or 4 connecting points in regular intervals.

happy trading :cool:
More...

Thanks for responding.

6J should just be the CME futures contract for the JPY/USD pair:
http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/fx/g10/japanese-yen_contract_specifications.html
 
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