

I saw this before but didn't think then of flipping it. See, I will always be long on the Dow index if the Dow's in an uptrend - but I never short it. All indices of similar construction have an upward bias so I'd rather deploy cash into forex when the Dow is bearish. However, maybe this overnight strategy might be good for me to short the US indices.
Worth a punt.
Yeah, this one probably backtests well, especially since 2009, simply due to the market's upward bias. The question is whether there's any edge over buy and hold. There's plenty of backtesting software that could give metrics on that. If there is any edge, it would still probably work best if you used a long-term trend filter (as you alluded to). I don't think I'd want to trade it in 2008 or 2002.
Bring up a weekly chart since1/1 and see for yourself just how it performed.