Yawn....... Israel attacked by Hamas

Tony Stark said:
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Its Lady Graham and others with comments like "level the place" contributing to stochastic attacks.

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This is very nearly how I've always pictured Vanny, a bit older.
 
gwb-trading said:
While many pundits expect the IDF to quickly start their ground offensive in Gaza; the reality IMO may be that it will be numerous days before it fully starts. It will take Israel some time to organize its plans, logistics, material, and troops to kick off the ground offensive.

While they warned residents of Gaza to leave the north and go south -- giving them 24 hours and pushing a sense of urgency -- in some ways this may be a deliberate ploy to get civilian residents out of the way sooner rather than later. It also allows Israel to intensify their air and artillery attacks aimed at Hamas in northern Gaza while hopefully reducing any civilians in the way.

Israel is continuing pin-prick localized commando raids aimed at getting back hostages, killing Hamas leaders and gathering intelligence. The air & artillery raids are focused on taking out rocket launching sites (which normally are in civilian buildings), killing Hamas leaders & members, reducing Hamas command & control sites, and eliminating obstacles to a ground assault.

I expect the ground assault to be slow and methodical -- taking many weeks even to seize north Gaza. It will be a difficult and bloody assault despite the IDF's technology advances due to the Hamas tunnel system and other defenses in Gaza. I don't see anyone "pushing a button" and this escalating into nuclear war.
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That reads like a memo right off a PR desk. Sounds nice, very practical, laced with a bit of truth here and there, but mostly propaganda and wishful thinking. This skirmish gets big and right quick when the troops go in. Hamas will be picking them off by the dozens every day. The Hezzies up north are just waiting for the green light from Iran. That happens the IDS will be overrun. We'll dip our toe in but it won't be enough. At that point it's a debate who holds the time to launch nukes bag. Can't be us because we don't have enough of a reason. On the other hand Israel will have enough of a reason considering they'll be overwhelmed and suffering mass casualties. Yeah, there will be plenty of hand wringing and violent protests, all of which will fade over time. Long game, which is what the power brokers are playing, the Jews survive, Iran is gone, literally, much of the middle east is uninhabitable, but life goes on and the major players walk away fatter and richer than ever. The only way this doesn't play out like this is if Iran doesn't take the bait. This whole thing is a setup for an excuse to take them out for good, IMO. Who knows, but one thing for sure. The body count is going WAY up in the not too distant future.
 
CaptainObvious said:
That reads like a memo right off a PR desk. Sounds nice, very practical, laced with a bit of truth here and there, but mostly propaganda and wishful thinking. This skirmish gets big and right quick when the troops go in. Hamas will be picking them off by the dozens every day. The Hezzies up north are just waiting for the green light from Iran. That happens the IDS will be overrun. We'll dip our toe in but it won't be enough. At that point it's a debate who holds the time to launch nukes bag. Can't be us because we don't have enough of a reason. On the other hand Israel will have enough of a reason considering they'll be overwhelmed and suffering mass casualties. Yeah, there will be plenty of hand wringing and violent protests, all of which will fade over time. Long game, which is what the power brokers are playing, the Jews survive, Iran is gone, literally, much of the middle east is uninhabitable, but life goes on and the major players walk away fatter and richer than ever. The only way this doesn't play out like this is if Iran doesn't take the bait. This whole thing is a setup for an excuse to take them out for good, IMO. Who knows, but one thing for sure. The body count is going WAY up in the not too distant future.
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GWB is a shallow thinker, he maintains a personal blog where he offers his very conventional thoughts to the world.. He does not know when to stop sometimes and this is one of those scenarios when taking at/through people who have seen how civilians experience war is just.. dumb.

Iran alone is quite large, 60 percent larger than Texas or about the same as Alaska so that would take a lot of nukes. For all practical purposes Iran has a nuclear deterrent as they can dirty bomb the crap out of tiny Israel and render it uninhabitable.

The balancing power of MAD is already in play. For me Ukraine a different matter as though a proxy war, it is closer to a fair fight where many, not all, people could evacuate.

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CaptainObvious said:
That reads like a memo right off a PR desk. Sounds nice, very practical, laced with a bit of truth here and there, but mostly propaganda and wishful thinking. This skirmish gets big and right quick when the troops go in. Hamas will be picking them off by the dozens every day. The Hezzies up north are just waiting for the green light from Iran. That happens the IDS will be overrun. We'll dip our toe in but it won't be enough. At that point it's a debate who holds the time to launch nukes bag. Can't be us because we don't have enough of a reason. On the other hand Israel will have enough of a reason considering they'll be overwhelmed and suffering mass casualties. Yeah, there will be plenty of hand wringing and violent protests, all of which will fade over time. Long game, which is what the power brokers are playing, the Jews survive, Iran is gone, literally, much of the middle east is uninhabitable, but life goes on and the major players walk away fatter and richer than ever. The only way this doesn't play out like this is if Iran doesn't take the bait. This whole thing is a setup for an excuse to take them out for good, IMO. Who knows, but one thing for sure. The body count is going WAY up in the not too distant future.
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Thankfully, the Iranians don't have nukes (thanks Obama!) so any nuking will be done by that POS Nut&Yahoo
 
Bugenhagen said:
For all practical purposes Iran has a nuclear deterrent as they can dirty bomb the crap out of tiny Israel and render it uninhabitable.
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Was unaware of that.Thats good to know.Im team Iran/Palestine on this one even with The US on the side of the terrorist state Israel.Good to know Iran can destroy Israel if need be.
 
Cuddles said:
Thankfully, the Iranians don't have nukes (thanks Obama!) so any nuking will be done by that POS Nut&Yahoo
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I read they have the material and know how to make one in a matter of months (Thanks Trump)and Bug says they can dirty bomb Israel now so I have hope Iran can destroy Israel if Israel tries to destroy them.
 
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CaptainObvious said:
That reads like a memo right off a PR desk. Sounds nice, very practical, laced with a bit of truth here and there, but mostly propaganda and wishful thinking. This skirmish gets big and right quick when the troops go in. Hamas will be picking them off by the dozens every day. The Hezzies up north are just waiting for the green light from Iran. That happens the IDS will be overrun. We'll dip our toe in but it won't be enough. At that point it's a debate who holds the time to launch nukes bag. Can't be us because we don't have enough of a reason. On the other hand Israel will have enough of a reason considering they'll be overwhelmed and suffering mass casualties. Yeah, there will be plenty of hand wringing and violent protests, all of which will fade over time. Long game, which is what the power brokers are playing, the Jews survive, Iran is gone, literally, much of the middle east is uninhabitable, but life goes on and the major players walk away fatter and richer than ever. The only way this doesn't play out like this is if Iran doesn't take the bait. This whole thing is a setup for an excuse to take them out for good, IMO. Who knows, but one thing for sure. The body count is going WAY up in the not too distant future.
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Time will tell. So tell us... what army is going to overrun Israel? Are you claiming Hamas and Hezbollah?

Hamas overplayed their hand... they thought they could grab Israeli hostages after killing hundreds of Israelis and then use the hostages to negotiate for the release of 5500 Hamas terrorists held in Israeli prisons. Well, it ain't going to happen.

Within a few days, Israel is going to launch a ground assault on Gaza and Hamas will be on the complete defensive. However the result is inevitable -- the nearly complete demise of the Hamas military capability and leadership. Yes, the assault on northern Gaza will be very bloody and incur many IDF casualties and take many weeks. However Israel is massing 300,000 military members at the Gaza border with control of the air and better technology. Opposing them are an estimated 35,000 Hamas fighters. Hamas does not represent an offensive threat that is going to overrun Israel and threaten the existence of the country.

Hezbollah will slink around the northern border, launch a few rockets, and trade fire with Israel. Basically a nuisance -- on the orders of Iran, their funder. Hezbollah does not have the armor, equipment or capability to directly invade Israel in scale that would threaten the existence of the country. Their claims of having 100,000 fighters are questionable. Hezbollah may have 130,000 rockets (claimed) but most are short range without powerful warheads. Nor do the countries nearby -- Lebanon and Jordan, want Hezbollah to use their nations as a staging ground for a major assault on Israel; they know the retaliation will be terrible. Hezbollah does not represent a threat that will overrun Israel.

Iran may launch a few larger rockets at Israel like they did in previous conflicts in the region. Iran is not going to raise an army that will drive across other countries to effectively launch an assault on Israel in a manner that will take the country. If Iran wants to launch dirty bomb via a missile at Israel then the retaliation will be terrible (and nuclear). The leaders in Iran may be terrorist supporters but they are not complete nutcases; Iran will simply do what they have done in the past. Fund and arm their proxies (Hamas & Hezbollah) to cause Israel trouble. An invasion by Iran does not represent a realistic threat that will overrun Israel.
 
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