Let's recap where things are at in the Israel Gaza conflict. As I mentioned many times previously, the path forward is two step. At this point it is clear the conflict will continue to unfold aligned with these two steps -- with no possibility of starting the second step until the first is fully completed.
The first step is the complete elimination of Hamas as a military and governing entity in Gaza. In Israel -- as outlined previously -- over 80% of the Jewish population says that Hamas must be totally eliminated in Gaza and no other outcome is acceptable. This also implies that any government in power in Israel -- whether conservative, moderate or liberal -- must finish the job of eliminating Hamas in Gaza to have any support whatsoever.
At this point even top Egyptian officials have stated Hamas is not a legitimate entity and needs to be eliminated in Gaza. At this point, other countries in the region have come to the conclusion -- aligned with Israel -- that if Hamas is not removed from Gaza then there will never be peace or a path forward.
Early in the conflict there were wildly optimistic opinions that it would be over in a month. The reality is that the military campaign in Gaza will take months and is probably only halfway done at this point.
The IDF is taking a methodical approach while doing their best to avoid Palestinian civilian casualties in a very crowded urban environment where Hamas is using civilians as human shields while turning residences, mosques, hospitals, schools and other buildings into fortified fighting positions. Coupled with a tunnel network used by Hamas which also must be destroyed.
This IDF slow & steady methodical approach which uses technology to increase terrorist casualties (in the thousands) while minimizing IDF casualties (with under 300 dead) also leads to a longer conflict -- and increases the total time-frame where civilians will suffer in Gaza with food, medical, shelter, and water issues. But this methodical approach is likely better than a fast military approach that would lead to a much greater civilian casualty toll.
On the peace front -- the international community has put forward proposed deals for two month ceasefires which allow the Hamas leadership to leave Gaza coupled with a hostage/prisoner swap. Hamas has rejected all of these deals while demanding to stay in power in Gaza and for very dangerous violent terrorists to be released.
These proposed ceasefire deals which allows Hamas leaders to leave Gaza are the only possible alternative to Israel completing their task of wiping out Hamas using the IDF. From the perspective of ending the civilian suffering in Gaza, Hamas is very foolish to reject these ceasefire proposals. However Hamas has already demonstrated they don't care about the civilians in Gaza -- except has human shields.
Step 2 is the moving forward with a peace process which includes the establishment of a two-state solution. Unfortunately the current conservative Netanyahu does not support a two-state solution. His government officials have put forward proposal to move all the residents of Gaza "voluntarily" to countries deep in the heart of Africa -- while doubling down on accelerating Jewish settlement in the West Bank. None of this is helpful for establishing a path to peace.
Israelis are generally dissatisfied with the Netanyahu government and they are likely to be out of office after the completion of the military operations in Gaza. Israel is not likely to change governments in middle of the war, but once the war is over it is a different story.
There is a growing opinion in Israel that a two-state solution will never be achievable and no one -- even a future more moderate Israeli government will ever be able to make a Palestinian state. This is reflective of a shift and hardening in opinion across the population in Israel -- which is unfortunate in context of the desire for a peaceful path forward involving a two-state solution
However the reality is that Israel will never know peace after this war if they don't step up to arrive at a two-state solution. This solution will most likely require Israel to withdraw from most of the West Bank and all of Gaza. Any deal probably needs to be aligned with the earlier deal offered to Arafat. This type of negotiation being done in good faith will only come about if a more moderate government is placed into office in Israel than the current conservative Netanyahu regime.
The first step is the complete elimination of Hamas as a military and governing entity in Gaza. In Israel -- as outlined previously -- over 80% of the Jewish population says that Hamas must be totally eliminated in Gaza and no other outcome is acceptable. This also implies that any government in power in Israel -- whether conservative, moderate or liberal -- must finish the job of eliminating Hamas in Gaza to have any support whatsoever.
At this point even top Egyptian officials have stated Hamas is not a legitimate entity and needs to be eliminated in Gaza. At this point, other countries in the region have come to the conclusion -- aligned with Israel -- that if Hamas is not removed from Gaza then there will never be peace or a path forward.
Early in the conflict there were wildly optimistic opinions that it would be over in a month. The reality is that the military campaign in Gaza will take months and is probably only halfway done at this point.
The IDF is taking a methodical approach while doing their best to avoid Palestinian civilian casualties in a very crowded urban environment where Hamas is using civilians as human shields while turning residences, mosques, hospitals, schools and other buildings into fortified fighting positions. Coupled with a tunnel network used by Hamas which also must be destroyed.
This IDF slow & steady methodical approach which uses technology to increase terrorist casualties (in the thousands) while minimizing IDF casualties (with under 300 dead) also leads to a longer conflict -- and increases the total time-frame where civilians will suffer in Gaza with food, medical, shelter, and water issues. But this methodical approach is likely better than a fast military approach that would lead to a much greater civilian casualty toll.
On the peace front -- the international community has put forward proposed deals for two month ceasefires which allow the Hamas leadership to leave Gaza coupled with a hostage/prisoner swap. Hamas has rejected all of these deals while demanding to stay in power in Gaza and for very dangerous violent terrorists to be released.
These proposed ceasefire deals which allows Hamas leaders to leave Gaza are the only possible alternative to Israel completing their task of wiping out Hamas using the IDF. From the perspective of ending the civilian suffering in Gaza, Hamas is very foolish to reject these ceasefire proposals. However Hamas has already demonstrated they don't care about the civilians in Gaza -- except has human shields.
Step 2 is the moving forward with a peace process which includes the establishment of a two-state solution. Unfortunately the current conservative Netanyahu does not support a two-state solution. His government officials have put forward proposal to move all the residents of Gaza "voluntarily" to countries deep in the heart of Africa -- while doubling down on accelerating Jewish settlement in the West Bank. None of this is helpful for establishing a path to peace.
Israelis are generally dissatisfied with the Netanyahu government and they are likely to be out of office after the completion of the military operations in Gaza. Israel is not likely to change governments in middle of the war, but once the war is over it is a different story.
There is a growing opinion in Israel that a two-state solution will never be achievable and no one -- even a future more moderate Israeli government will ever be able to make a Palestinian state. This is reflective of a shift and hardening in opinion across the population in Israel -- which is unfortunate in context of the desire for a peaceful path forward involving a two-state solution
However the reality is that Israel will never know peace after this war if they don't step up to arrive at a two-state solution. This solution will most likely require Israel to withdraw from most of the West Bank and all of Gaza. Any deal probably needs to be aligned with the earlier deal offered to Arafat. This type of negotiation being done in good faith will only come about if a more moderate government is placed into office in Israel than the current conservative Netanyahu regime.
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