YASPEM - Yet Another S&P E-Mini Journal

8/24/2006 0918

My, my, my... the BoBs looked pretty good last night.

Price hit 129400 (BI or S1) around 0330 and bounced hard - paused to run sideways at 129750 (PP) - then on up all the way to 129900. Then the Bond Openers ran it on up near 130100 (AI or R1) at 0830 - then it bounced back down to 129700 (PP) and bounced up again, not quite to 130000.

Little bit of real work to do, then onward...

O-Tay! I just got done tending the wheatgrass, kissing my favorite wife off to her work, and zipping through the crossword, jumble, and crypto-quip, to get what's left of my mind percolating, and I'm ready to do some tradin'!

Right this very instant (0932) ES is trading right on the PP at 129750. It's done the expected thing since 0330, which is that it went down to the Support, bounced off, back to the PP, stayed there a while, then up to the Resistance, bounced off, and now back to the PP and running a bit sideways.


ENTRY: +129650 / -129800


The only thing that matters, as I see it, is what's going on with the price in the context of the amount of time you want to be "in" a trade. My desire is to trade a few times a day - maybe three to five. I also have been avoiding the period before about 0930 and from 1100 to 1300... so that leaves 0930 - 1100, an hour and a half, and 1300-1515, two hours amd change. So, all things taken together, my trade time needs to be under an hour if I'm to get three trades made. I don't want to insist on three or more trades (and yesterday's next-to-last trade was a stinker), so I'm willing to go longer as long as it's profitable and improving.

Just looked back, and N-T took me into a trade a couple of minutes ago:

0937 +129650
ST 129950 -300
BE 129550 / 129625 +025
T1 129350 / 129550 +100 Follow 200
T2 129150 / 129450 +300 Follow 100
T3 128650 / 128700 +950 Follow 050


I'm not real thrilled about this one - volume is decreasing, which points to a potential change, so I won't be too surprised to see a BE here, and I may dump it before the stop... let's see.

0950

Well, dammit... same thing that happened yesterday on the stinker - it went 075 the right way, and missed the BE trigger by one tick... at least it hasn't gone too far wrong, so we watch.
 
Quote from 4re:

Hey Tex,
What part of the Great Republic are you from?

4re

Some folks call it Far West Texas - the Trans-Pecos - the Big Bend.

I call it Texhuahua.

You start seeing signs along the highways welcoming you to West Texas right after you hit the Fort Worth City Limit headed west... then you drive four or five hundred miles before you get to my house.

You?
 
Quote from longtex:

Some folks call it Far West Texas - the Trans-Pecos - the Big Bend.

I call it Texhuahua.

You start seeing signs along the highways welcoming you to West Texas right after you hit the Fort Worth City Limit headed west... then you drive four or five hundred miles before you get to my house.

You?

I am in the Dallas area. But I know Pecos very well. Kind of between sand and hills and very hot. I was raised in Abilene.
 
Quote from longtex:

But wasn't the news necessary to deduce the logic of the price changes?

He told me it has nothing to do with logic - it's people, and so it's about emotions and nothing else. If you don't understand the emotions of the people in your market, you won't be able to do diddly squat. Logic is for after-the-fact explanation, for people who don't know any better.

Still waiting for some action...

Did you look at that last chart? It did bounce, didn't it?

Speaking of charts, pull up a VXO or VIX.

Put a Horizontal Line at the Previous Close.

What's it tell you.

Now extend that chart back for the last 10 or 15 trading days.

See?

See the past?

See the Future?

Thanks man.

JJ
 
Quote from 4re:

I am in the Dallas area. But I know Pecos very well. Kind of between sand and hills and very hot. I was raised in Abilene.

I'm about a hundred miles from Pecos - mostly south, but a little west. A mile high, on the eastern edge of the Great Chihuahuan Desert. Dry, but not too dry. Couple of weeks of hot, couple of weeks of cold every year... pretty nice the rest of the year. I don't haver A/C, just ceiling fans and an attic fan.

My short at 129650 has FINALLY gone right... whewww!

1106 129450 with a stop at 129550 for +100
 
1107 FINALLY...

I wasn't sweating it too hard, because I wasn't looking most of the time - Ninja-Trader seems to take care of the entries and exits pretty well as long as I set it up properly.

1109 129350 + 300 Stop 129450 +200
Follow 100

I have half a mind to bail right effing now and cruise the rest of the day... but I think this can go on down to 129100 or a little less, pretty easily...

we'll see... I'm gonna let N-T handle it, and if it takes me out at 9450, so be it.
 
... I see price action and understand it in terms of color, so all of my charts have different color schemes based on that price action.

This way I can react instantly when I see the change in color ... all of the thoght processes were done way before hand (like at 3am ET ... for weeks ... and weekends!), so I don't have to think about any trade I enter.

I just push the button.

Great story.

JJ
 
1118

Out at 129450

The price ran right along my BoB (Bounce or Break) line BI (Below, Inside) at 129400 for several minutes before finally bouncing. My stop at 129450 was executed.

Trade summary:

0937 +129650
1118 -129450

Result +200

1 contract: Gross $100.00
Commissions 4.52
Daily System Cost 15.00
----------------------------------
Net this trade: $80.48
Net for day: $80.48


I'm not unhappy with this. As I indicated in the beginning, my goal is to average about 200 (basis points) a day and trade ten contracts. At that level, this trade was

10 contracts: Gross $1000.00
Commissions 45.20
Daily System Cost 15.00
----------------------------------
Net this trade: $939.80
Net for day: $939.80


*_*_*_*_*_*_*_*_*_*_*_*_*_*_*_*_*_*_*_*_*

I don't usually trade during the lunchtime - it's usually running mostly sideways. I keep the hi/lo for the period from 1100-1300 (Central) and look to trade if and when those extrema are broken after 1300.

I'm outta here for a couple of hours...

Buena Suerte, traders!
 
08/24/2006
12:56

Ahhhh... homemade enchiladas with beans from scratch (not out of a can, soaked overnight and slow-cooked), salad with local farm lettuce and tomatoes from the garden, and a two ounce shot of wheatgrass juice... can't beat it!

BUrrrpppp!

Let's see, whatta we got?

1100-1300 hi/lo is - 129700 / _ 129350


Sayyyy... isn't this where we came in? Aren't these the same actors? Where's the Masked Man?

SO... PP is 129750 and BI (S1?) is 129400... so it's bounced on the down side, and...

1259 It's trading at 129600

My entry on this is going to be conservative... +129300 / -129800

Although... my "what the hell, on paper" trade right now would be to short it if it hits 129700 and bounces back to 129600...

1303 ooops, maybe I should press the "submit" button now??

We wait...
 
Quote from longtex:


Although... my "what the hell, on paper" trade right now would be to short it if it hits 129700 and bounces back to 129600...

If I could figure out how to make Ninja-Trader do that, I'd add it to the setup right now - I gotta ask Vince if it can be done? I think this kind of programmability is in the works but not in the current release, but ya never know - If you don't ask, you don't get.
 
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