I've been out of the Matrix for sometime now. Today I woke up in a cold sweat to see a hanging man before me. The hanging man is on the Qs and sure sign of impending pullback.
I took a look at the times in the past when the Qs had hit peaks. I know I have done a similiar analysis of this before in the past, but this is key right now because most times when we see the man hang on the Qs there is a notable pullback.
The previous trading range of the Qs was in between approximately 45.3 and 43. 45.3-43= 2.3 2.3+45.52= 47.82. Therefore between 47.5 and 48 I had expected there to be a ceiling.
Another sign of the impending pullback is the RSI and the CMF. We see a divergence of the price and CMF. We also see the Qs hitting the RSI ceiling where, in the past, when it hit this ceiling the Qs pulled back.
We also have the price that just pulled over the top Bollinger. In the past, we can see sharp pullbacks when the price hit the top Bollinger. This is a classic Bollinger trade where the price will slip above one Bollinger and, like an elastic band, be hurtled over to the other Bollinger.
The true warning sign for myself is the contraction of the Bollinger Bands meaning imminent expansion.
Technical analysis aside we can see the fundamentals behind such a pullback. Last year, oil and the ten year yield were at about the same levels when the indexes started to fall. A ten year yield near or above 5% does not bode well for the indexes. Bernanke seems to be very key to the markets. Last year, there was one key speech that set the markets tumbling in May. Seasonality does not bode well for the indexes as May/June/July have not been historically bullish months.
Then we add other geopolitical events like Iran with its nuke program and then asides by Putin about aiming nuclear weapons at Europe, etc.
Therefore, I feel the price will pullback to 45.91 at the least in the next 5-10 trading days. I do not expect the price to go lower. If the price does go lower, then we will be entering serious technical difficulties. This should be a good 4-5% pullback in short time.
There is still a bullish fortitude. After such a pullback and if there is a pivot, I predict we will see another attempt at 47.7-48 area where the price will decide to bounce or blow through.
I have to issue one very stiff warning. December, January, March on the Qs we saw a triple top. If such a triple top were to form again, then we might see a similiar drop similiar to February thats very stiff and unforgiving. Sailor take warning...
I took a look at the times in the past when the Qs had hit peaks. I know I have done a similiar analysis of this before in the past, but this is key right now because most times when we see the man hang on the Qs there is a notable pullback.
The previous trading range of the Qs was in between approximately 45.3 and 43. 45.3-43= 2.3 2.3+45.52= 47.82. Therefore between 47.5 and 48 I had expected there to be a ceiling.
Another sign of the impending pullback is the RSI and the CMF. We see a divergence of the price and CMF. We also see the Qs hitting the RSI ceiling where, in the past, when it hit this ceiling the Qs pulled back.
We also have the price that just pulled over the top Bollinger. In the past, we can see sharp pullbacks when the price hit the top Bollinger. This is a classic Bollinger trade where the price will slip above one Bollinger and, like an elastic band, be hurtled over to the other Bollinger.
The true warning sign for myself is the contraction of the Bollinger Bands meaning imminent expansion.
Technical analysis aside we can see the fundamentals behind such a pullback. Last year, oil and the ten year yield were at about the same levels when the indexes started to fall. A ten year yield near or above 5% does not bode well for the indexes. Bernanke seems to be very key to the markets. Last year, there was one key speech that set the markets tumbling in May. Seasonality does not bode well for the indexes as May/June/July have not been historically bullish months.
Then we add other geopolitical events like Iran with its nuke program and then asides by Putin about aiming nuclear weapons at Europe, etc.
Therefore, I feel the price will pullback to 45.91 at the least in the next 5-10 trading days. I do not expect the price to go lower. If the price does go lower, then we will be entering serious technical difficulties. This should be a good 4-5% pullback in short time.
There is still a bullish fortitude. After such a pullback and if there is a pivot, I predict we will see another attempt at 47.7-48 area where the price will decide to bounce or blow through.
I have to issue one very stiff warning. December, January, March on the Qs we saw a triple top. If such a triple top were to form again, then we might see a similiar drop similiar to February thats very stiff and unforgiving. Sailor take warning...
