XOM - Support breakdown

xandman

xandman

Hard to short an investment case study classic, but XOM looks promising.

A break in the lower support around $86.

Recent volatility, while elevated, is still in lower part of the recent range. I think we can still get volatility to pop with this move.

The target move is about $7-$10 in the underlying.

I think a bear ratio spread is ideal structure to: 1) minimize losses from a retracement 2) maximize gains from a potential pop in volatility.

my trade:

XOM APR 17 82.5-87.5P Sell 1 x Buy 3 for $0.00

Take profits at your discretion, but take it early. I mediocre move for the next few weeks will eat you up in time decay. Watch your sizing because this can gain delta awfully fast.
 
One could also make a case for a double bottom, January and yesterday. Waiting for it to truly break would be more prudent.
 
Yes, somewhat hasty. It did penetrate a bottom by a few inches. A break in my book is a close that is a penny below the previous close or lows. 10/15, 12/16 and 1/30. This support goes farther back to 2013. High risk of reversal.

But, I also want to be ahead of a pop in volatility.

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I would have probably bought that swing high.

The stock is not on my narrow watchlist. Blue chip dividend payers are usually too capital intensive for options trading, imo.

I actually got around to looking at it because I wanted to go bottom fishing in energy from a longer allocation perspective. Only TK looks compelling right now.
 
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Looks like someone had the same idea today (or the exact opposite). People are buying puts on the ask.

2000 April17 85P-80P 1 x 2. I have sold 2x March17 82P to buy me some time on the ratio. The db alluded, the trade may have been premature. Looks like the stock needs to bleed some more. If CL moves down hard, those March p will be closed promptly.

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IF oil starts its sell off again dropping below 40 and the markets go into full correction mode XOM could easily trade at 10 year lows!!! Which means a drop below $60!
 
If that ever comes to pass, I'll start dollar cost averaging for the long term.

I think we just need to get the destruction of the Shale Gas industry. When big operators start buying up the small firms, allocating capital instead of paying down debt, then it's time to buy energy as a whole.

I sure miss full-service broker research. Do they still have those?
 
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