Xmas rally is just starting

Quote from TILT2:

Warning! Recently the market has been extremely tricky! No matter it seems to tell you, don't fall for it! Check what I said in the first page of the thread!
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You were basically saying that as long as the S&P 500 is below the May highs, it is bearish. And if it ever gets above it, it is bearish nevertheless because it's manipulated. I haven't read anything more nonsensical than this (don't take it personally). Why don't you start to really trade what you see and not what you think. Free your mind. Be free of an opinion, and you may actually experience some success.
 
Quote from Bombardier:

You were basically saying that as long as the S&P 500 is below the May highs, it is bearish. And if it ever gets above it, it is bearish nevertheless because it's manipulated. I haven't read anything more nonsensical than this (don't take it personally). Why don't you start to really trade what you see and not what you think. Free your mind. Be free of an opinion, and you may actually experience some success.
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Actually what I think and what you said are not controversial. Trade what you see is a good idea. I do it sometimes. But meanwhile I think everybody needs to have a long term view of the market. My view is bearish and my standard is the May highs. It's that simple.
 
I don't think a bearish view of the SPX is particularly controversial from an economic view - consider the unemployment rate, debt to GDP ratio and house price index. Then compare the SPX to other global indices (sorry to be biased, but take Australia as an example).

Debt is still spiralling, unemployment is still at levels that does not facilitate strong growth (despite short term influences on economic data) and falling house prices reduce the net worth of the average American, reducing disposable income and weakening bank balance sheets.

The question is, when will the penny drop?
 
Quote from dptrading:

The question is, when will the penny drop?
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It already dropped a few years ago and bounced back. Everything you summarized earlier is old news. Just my two cents, take it fwiw.
 
Quote from atticus:

US yields are rising while Spain and Italy's are failing. The EU manufactured a bid on the Spanish auction so global indices are going higher. 1300 SPX by end of Jan.
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Oh, January...If you had said December I would have said not likely, but this can happen.

Trading on NQ really low volume today, so I think we'll selloff tomorrow just as we have tonight.
 
Quote from atticus:

My analysis is my own, not yours. Take it for what it's worth. I'll be wrong if we don't touch 1300 cash by end of 1/2012.
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1300 by the end of 1/2012, you still think so?
 
Quote from atticus:

Yeah, and DAX up 3% today, but it's obviously thin.
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But the UK stock almost flatted today. So did Aussie dollar today. What happened?
 
Quote from atticus:

Yeah, and DAX up 3% today, but it's obviously thin.
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what the heck IS going on with the DAX? while thin vol is easily manipulated this is extraordinary...isn't it?
 
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