Xmas Rally Has Finished.

Quote from atticus:

It's akin to arguing absolute P/Es on individual equities. Anytime someone makes a trade on "fundamentals" I cringe.
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Now, atticus there is some validity to trading on what to buy for fundamentals, but not when to buy, that much I agree.

Fundamentals are very useful if you have an investment you're considering holding for long periods. They tell you not to worry because the longer you hold the more likely you are to win, but this is another efficient market hypothesis sold to investors because they do not realize that it is only the significant reductions in corporate tax rates that made our market rally so much in the first place.

Now that that trump card came and went with Reagan there's nothing that will be that conducive to stock performance ever again.
 
it has everything to do with trading . what in the hell has been holding up the stock market ? Q-E . end of subject . :cool:

bp
 
Quote from bhardy307:

Very true.

I'm sure Beau is pounding his chest after today's sell-off. Good for you Beau. You definately won this battle. Actually, I am profiting too, not because of a longer term projection of where the markets are headed, but because I traded today's trend.
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I don't pound my chest, because that could hurt my heart.

You might think I trade on emotion, but I am nothing but a quantitative automaton who'll eat your lunch but I don't need food to live, only price, volatility, and that is my sustenance..
 
Quote from bgp:

it has everything to do with trading . what in the hell has been holding up the stock market ? Q-E . end of subject . :cool:

bp
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This is not the case, because QE is over with, and we had our first bid to cover in treasuries above 3.5, and that is the first sign the inflation is over to be followed by significantly higher interest rates.
 
Quote from bwolinsky:

This is not the case, because QE is over with, and we had our first bid to cover in treasuries above 3.5, and that is the first sign the inflation is over to be followed by significantly higher interest rates.
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So you expect the euro to collapse causing the USD to surge, and you think on top of that there will soon be significantly higher interest rates further accelerating the value of the USD. You sir, are a dreamer!
 
Quote from bhardy307:

So you expect the euro to collapse causing the USD to surge, and you think on top of that there will soon be significantly higher interest rates further accelerating the value of the USD. You sir, are a dreamer!
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So I guess the bid to cover 31 basis points higher didn't send the Euro crashing? Along with oversupplied Eurogold bullion and the law of one price marking our Gold dollars down over $50, today?

Really. Talking to you is like discussing how to be an astronaut when I am an astronaut, so think over these things because they are that obvious to me, but after years of investing theory I can come to the conclusion that people who dismiss valid economics, and, especially macroeconomics, really won't last when it comes to trading.
 
Quote from bwolinsky:

Talking to you is like discussing how to be an astronaut when I am an astronaut ...
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There is no doubt in my mind that your head and your ego are in the stars.
 
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