Xmas Massacre followed by New Year Massacre?
- Thread starter shortie
- Start date
The abundance of the headlines like this makes me wonder if a major dump is imminent.
Stocks to wrap up 2009 on high note
Ellis Mnyandu
NEW YORK
Sun Dec 27, 2009 10:57am EST
REUTERS
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Wall Street is likely to make a strong showing in the final week of 2009 as the bulls gear up to toast the first annual advance for U.S. stocks in two years on hopes of more economic stability in 2010.
Stocks to wrap up 2009 on high note
Ellis Mnyandu
NEW YORK
Sun Dec 27, 2009 10:57am EST
REUTERS
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Wall Street is likely to make a strong showing in the final week of 2009 as the bulls gear up to toast the first annual advance for U.S. stocks in two years on hopes of more economic stability in 2010.
So tired of people talking about the "imminent dump" right around the corner.
There will not be any meaningful selling - PERIOD -- until there is a meaningful reason to do so.
Here are the possibilities to start that process:
1) Significant sovereign defaults (Greece, Eastern block, others?)
2) Majorly disappointing earning reports (a few weeks off from now)
3) Unexpected increase in interest rates (or poor Tbill sales)
4) Black swan event?
Point here is -- the shit is not going to start just going down for no reason....its not going to happen. Up or more consolidation from this point on until something significant happens news-wise.
peas and queues, bitches
There will not be any meaningful selling - PERIOD -- until there is a meaningful reason to do so.
Here are the possibilities to start that process:
1) Significant sovereign defaults (Greece, Eastern block, others?)
2) Majorly disappointing earning reports (a few weeks off from now)
3) Unexpected increase in interest rates (or poor Tbill sales)
4) Black swan event?
Point here is -- the shit is not going to start just going down for no reason....its not going to happen. Up or more consolidation from this point on until something significant happens news-wise.
peas and queues, bitches
Quote from shortie:
The shorts are being killed right now (again, f*k!) that's much is clear. My question is whether the same is about to happen to the bulls late to the party.
Looking at the last year charts (see a couple of charts attached) I see that there was a fast run-up right into the new year all of which (and some more) was lost 1-2 weeks later.
will the history repeat itself?
Last year was as much a one-of-a-kind event as this year's liquidity orgy.
Quote from shortie:
The shorts are being killed right now (again, f*k!
Looking at the last year charts (see a couple of charts attached) I see that there was a fast run-up right into the new year all of which (and some more) was lost 1-2 weeks later.
will the history repeat itself?
I voted +7% and am clearly in the minority. There is nothing that says go down. Just take a look at AAPL, GS, IBM and GOOG. The Generals aren't going anywhere but up...
Seriously, I'm as bear as they come, but of all the stocks that I own, the gainers and easy money has been to the long side; just keep moving the stops up and you'll do fine. And just because something happened a year ago, doesn't mean it'll happen again.... buy gold, oil and sell the USD. B out.
I'm not desperate for anything to continue. As soon as there is a reason to go short, I will. That reason is most likely either going to be some sort of sovereign default, or more likely a bad earnings season.
However, the market isn't just going to organically start to decline for no good reason. That should be obvious to everyone at this point. Anyone who is not longish at this point is trading based on their own biases.
However, the market isn't just going to organically start to decline for no good reason. That should be obvious to everyone at this point. Anyone who is not longish at this point is trading based on their own biases.
My model, fitted with 57 inputs in a neat set of highly tuned algos, says shorts get massacred, then longs get a sharp uppercut after new year, shorts get de-pantsed from 10-18 january, then longs get theirs balls taken off with surgical precision until 1 March. In march the longs and shorts lay down to together in intimate embrace. After that things get a little uncertain.