Xle

[murray t turtle]

Quote from GlobalFinancier:[/

Meh, Iran had to ruin the fun.
XLE is up $1 as of now

=========================
Global fin/Vhehn;
Dont know how to trade much on fundamentals.


XLE,OIH related still in med/long term uptrends/50/200 day moving averages.

Some oil/gas tocks have crashed / stayed this week below 50 day moving average;
actually covered nice short recently in that sector,
XLE has seen much better uptrends than FEB.

And like to pay attention to sell volume spikes in XLE
not a very good sign of uptrend strength,eod,
XLE, may hold @50 day area???????
Dont want to hold shorts overnight with
200 dma long uptrends,Iran,Iraq.....

 

[GlobalFinancier]

Heh, I underestimated the power of the downtrend.
Another $1 before it hits my primary target, then I'll reconsider.

 

[GlobalFinancier]

XLE falls to 51.75 INET.
*Rings cash register*
*Sticks it at the bulls*
GlobalFinancier vs Market 1-1.(Lost on the Nikkei prediction)

 

[JA_LDP]

It's got nothing but downside for the rest of the month. Finishing feb at 50-51

 

[murray t turtle]

Quote from ChaosNSX:

Both good points...

Another thing to note , that with the share price currently so close to the current nav, this is telling us its a darling of the FOFs.

If XLE is truly the oil decline hedge for the energy desks, then any further buying conviction in the underlying basket should take the lid off.

====================
Actually thought [wrongly]the XLE ,50 day moving average might have held; but agreed in deed with the polar bears earlier on some, weak oil/gas stocks,
which crashed below thier 50 dma earlier.

Another likely scenerio ,peradventure, supply/demand,;
200 dma may help uptrenders again, later .Not a prediction.

Looks like in the medium term , maybe lots still unwinding thier ''texas hedges'', as market makers call them;
know some derivative traders when thier ''texas hedges '' dont work out ,they just sell them.

 

[GlobalFinancier]

http://today.reuters.com/news/newsA...KOC_0_US-WEATHER-NORTHEAST.xml&archived=False
The myth of the warm winter is busted.
Anyways, oil is still down(Below $61 as of now.). Keep shorting XLE.
I think this shows that supply/selling is still strong despite "international tensions and cold weather"

 

[GlobalFinancier]

Hmm, thinking it over, it seems that there is a possibility of a bounce, due to the steep downtrend in oil recently.
I'm still bearish, but be warned, don't worry if oil turns up $1 -$2 tomorrow.

 

[knocks420]

Excellent reading (and predictions). Any thoughts on the OIH which have taken a beating?

 

[serg007]

Imho OIH should at worst hold 125-126 area and then make a base like in October 2005, followed by a Buy signal.
I still think low might be made during February (I mentioned the reasons in the post from Feb, 03) but it's still too early to buy from the risk-reward standpoint.

http://tinyurl.com/bwvzj

 

[GlobalFinancier]

Oil fell to $57s yesterday, bouncing now, up 70+cents today.