X-mas Rally Officially Over: Start Shorting Tomorrow!!!

Quote from killATwill:

i have to agree about HSI. it's a blow off top and it'll crumple like urkle in a steel cage match soon enough.

the housing sales figure always gets revised, so i wouldn't put to much stock in it. if you read the press release in full, the gov even says that the stats have a huge margin of error and sales may have actually fallen last month. permits are what you want to keep an eye out for considering they're easier to monitor. better yet, watch a 3 month rolling average of permits.

chicago pmi i can't argue with. it was decent.

but you better get short BOTH tech and housing brother. don't play this spread hedge crap.
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I'm not surprised the new housing #s were decent for Nov, as the MBA applications had that spike up 2 weeks ago. all the pumper analysts are taking it as a bottoming sign; i see it as a brief illusory pause in the beginning of a 5 year deeping bearish housing cycle, stimulated by expensive treasuries for the month. I guarantee the #s for the next few months won't hurt the housing bears, additionally helped a bit by seasonal falloff in transactions. Oh ... and look at the bond market.

Now I like the spread hedge crap, because its the only way in good conscious I can carry all of these positions overnight. My idea: just in case I'm wrong and can't time this market, I'll get to enjoy at least one side of the movement. Sure it'll limit my gains potentially, but you never know, I could be right at both.

Better question - what are the odds housing is going to shoot to the stratosphere and NASDAQ sells off hard?

But I'm not buying the nasdaq selling off right now... who cares that its breaking through a channel. these indexes (nq, es, and ym) and virtually married to each other, and I perceive the nq as being underbought (you like that, different terminology for oversold?)

ya sure, exchange stocks like ICE, NMX, and NYX are pricy. So are casinos (WYNN, MGM, etc.) ... but there are diamonds in the rough. Look at MOT or SNDK. Look at those cash positions, forward PEs, and LOW expectations !!! (you wouldn't think they are high judging by price) etc.. there is a lot more upside to these than down in my view.

Furthermore, this 'housing collapse' has not yet permeated into the earnings of the broad market, especially techs (look at RIMM a few days ago) ... So why be bearish and decide to call the top?

January is historically the most bullish month of the year ... And the news reports have not yet turned bearish. When jobs start falling off, and earnings confirm it, I'll believe it.

Until then, its called consolidation (buy the dips).
 
i think we think alike in terms of macro, but man you are cray cray to go long a high beta like the NAZ as the long pair to your housing short. you might consider as your long pair a a mix of dow stocks that don't get hit that bad during a downturn KO, MCD, MMM, PG.

Quote from scriabinop23:

I'm not surprised the new housing #s were decent for Nov, as the MBA applications had that spike up 2 weeks ago. all the pumper analysts are taking it as a bottoming sign; i see it as a brief illusory pause in the beginning of a 5 year deeping bearish housing cycle, stimulated by expensive treasuries for the month. I guarantee the #s for the next few months won't hurt the housing bears, additionally helped a bit by seasonal falloff in transactions. Oh ... and look at the bond market.

Now I like the spread hedge crap, because its the only way in good conscious I can carry all of these positions overnight. My idea: just in case I'm wrong and can't time this market, I'll get to enjoy at least one side of the movement. Sure it'll limit my gains potentially, but you never know, I could be right at both.

Better question - what are the odds housing is going to shoot to the stratosphere and NASDAQ sells off hard?

But I'm not buying the nasdaq selling off right now... who cares that its breaking through a channel. these indexes (nq, es, and ym) and virtually married to each other, and I perceive the nq as being underbought (you like that, different terminology for oversold?)

ya sure, exchange stocks like ICE, NMX, and NYX are pricy. So are casinos (WYNN, MGM, etc.) ... but there are diamonds in the rough. Look at MOT or SNDK. Look at those cash positions, forward PEs, and LOW expectations !!! (you wouldn't think they are high judging by price) etc.. there is a lot more upside to these than down in my view.

Furthermore, this 'housing collapse' has not yet permeated into the earnings of the broad market, especially techs (look at RIMM a few days ago) ... So why be bearish and decide to call the top?

January is historically the most bullish month of the year ... And the news reports have not yet turned bearish. When jobs start falling off, and earnings confirm it, I'll believe it.

Until then, its called consolidation (buy the dips).
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Quote from scriabinop23:

2 bullish economic indicators came out today above expectations: midwest chicago fed manufacturing, and new housing.

bonds are selling off; oil is getting cheaper ... there needs to be an economic catalyst for a selloff...

these markets are DOGS already !!!! you want a correction? we've barely had a run !!!!

look at HSI, or better yet HHI.HK for my definition of an overbought market. The US markets are the DEFINITION of rational. no volatility; no upside right now !!!

come back to the thread when you do that, and we'll talk.

Disclosure: i'm short housing and long tech... and grumpy about it to boot.
:(
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LOL! Me too. We can cry together if Nasdaq really crashes. :D
 
No, you said the q's would BREAK 43 AND THEY DID NOT. They held. Not only that but you called it day after day after day and they still haven't broken down below 43.

what are you talking about HG THEY TRADED AT 42.88....THEY FINISHED LAST FRIDAY AT 42.88-------PLEASE DO YOUR HOMEWORK!!!! i have money on the line......i know where the qqqq`s broke through....as I traded off this price:)

I only said they would break through 43 one time, beforehand, and they did the following market day----get some sleep hg:)
 
actually the way tech stocks use options---i gotta think there is more bad backdating news to come. Like Yahoo for example, as much money as Semel has taken out of that company----I woudn`t be surprised if sometime over the last 5 years they did it!
 
Quote from BlueStreek:
are you sure the chicago manufacturing report came out today?

the housing report was still down over 15% yoy comparison.

the market was up 80 before any news came out---give me a break--we have had 3 months of bad news. (you don`t actually believe we were up today b/c of GOOD news?)

you can`t compare overseas markets/emerging markets to the us markets on a strictly percentage basis of overbought and oversold conditions.

i will say that the nasdaq going from 16 month lows to being up 14% at one time was overbought and it has already started correcting......the dow, snp 500 will soon follow suit.


the housing stocks have a lot of hedge fund money in them, so I don`t play with them---they have manipulated the hell out of those for the entire year----but kb home is far over-valued right now----considering their debt issues.

the semi`s like intc are relatively undervalued----but if they can`t do anything in this market, what happens when the sell-off begins? [/B]
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chicago fed was 104.4 versus 104.1 expected at noon.

80 pts on the dow is nothing. that is .6% !!

furthermore, the nasdaq correction in may/june was pretty deep. ie Apple, same company, was trading ~50 at bottom, or 15 fpe ... i don't see any reason why it can't go up another 10-20%.

otoh, if oil for some reason hit $100 out of geopolitical conflict and inflation re-upticked, I guarantee the market would sell. remember inflationary times tend to price stocks towards lower PE. (past oil crisises resulted in avg PEs of 9-12 range)

As far as INTC's, my idea is that when the market sells off, it'll sell of the fluff: casinos, exchanges, and housing. the INTCs of this world with heavy cash positions have much less downside. you know that term the analysts use: "flight to quality"
 
Quote from BlueStreek:

No, you said the q's would BREAK 43 AND THEY DID NOT. They held. Not only that but you called it day after day after day and they still haven't broken down below 43.

what are you talking about HG THEY TRADED AT 42.88....THEY FINISHED LAST FRIDAY AT 42.88-------PLEASE DO YOUR HOMEWORK!!!! i have money on the line......i know where the qqqq`s broke through....as I traded off this price:)

I only said they would break through 43 one time, beforehand, and they did the following market day----get some sleep hg:)
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I stand corrected. You were still talking in the context of a large drop below 43, not just .12 below 43 but you won't admit that. Hell you still won't admit the uptrend is still intact.
 
Quote from BlueStreek:

actually the way tech stocks use options---i gotta think there is more bad backdating news to come. Like Yahoo for example, as much money as Semel has taken out of that company----I woudn`t be surprised if sometime over the last 5 years they did it!
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here's a good short for you, if you don't like the way techs use options: CRM. they spend all their earnings on options expenses.

biggest joke I know of. Thats an additional short of mine, BTW.

on their last earnings call, they justified it as a necessity to seek and retain talent. I reply: well if they need to be paid like that, you should count it as a non-GAAP expense so we see the true bottom line. I hope non-GAAP sometime disappears because of this... investors need to see options expenses as coming out of profits.
 
Quote from killATwill:

i think we think alike in terms of macro, but man you are cray cray to go long a high beta like the NAZ as the long pair to your housing short. you might consider as your long pair a a mix of dow stocks that don't get hit that bad during a downturn KO, MCD, MMM, PG.
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I'll admit I'm a volatility junkie ... I am trying to cut down on it for my health (stopping attempting to trade natural gas is progress for me).

But KBH seems to me one of most volatile of the bunch ... although its settled as of late.

as far as beta, perhaps I do need to reduce my correlation to the indexes on some of these stocks ...
 
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