Yeah.... lemeee see what I can figure out on this one. My gut says its going much higher. But we gotta play the game in the interim.
WYNN/LVS
- Thread starter vanzandt
- Start date
I appreciate what you say but I don't trade on gut feelings or fundamentals. Often times people with differing methods can come up with the similar trades. As mentioned above this trade did NOT fulfill my last entry signal criteria but I know where this SHOULD retrace too so I took the trade. So I am consciously deviating from my signal trigger entry because all other portions of the setup are fulfilled. I have a target price of $74 so my R:R is 1:6. So,I am ok taking the trade slightly early.
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I think we're talking about the same thing. T/A is all about pattern recognition. It just adds fancy names and theories to support its premises. When I say "my gut", its basically just pattern recognition too, derived from years of watching live charts and absorbing their behavior. Peoples brains are wired for different skill sets. Its like I don't need to draw a bunch of lines to predict the next several candlesticks, I have seen the patterns 1000's and 1000's of times, ...and I retain them.
A good analogy could be drawn comparing music to trading. One could go to Julliard and learn all the theories, classic progressions, etc... and even become a relatively accomplished "mechanical" musician, but unless their brains are naturally wired to retain patterns in music, they will never become accomplished original songwriters. Many can play the piano using sheet music, but few can truly compose. On the other hand, you can have someone without a lick of formal training that can hear any song just one time, and sit down at the piano and instantly replicate what he or she just heard. This is a gift that people are born with. It can't be taught.
As for using fundamentals in investing, one can not argue that over long periods of time fundamentals ultimately win. It just is the way it is. And to a lesser degree, they can certainly be used to trade earnings reports if one understands a particular company, its balance sheet, and its market. Fundy's are very important.
So its all a balance. But intuition is a gift. And its more than just memorizing patterns. Its about anticipating the herd and feeling their vibe. And that's where street smarts comes in. That can't be taught either.
You have arrogant traders like Chris Mac who think they know it all, but they are severely mistaken. Anybody can study theory and learn charts if they have half a brain. Its just like anyone can go to music school... but the Eddie Van Halens and John Legends of the world are few and far between. I can learn T/A... and its certainly a lifelong pursuit of mine... but a balance of all three, fundys, T/A, and intuition is what makes a truly Elite Trader.
As an aside... I bet ya'll didn't know Allen Greenspan attended Julliard and studied music. An intensely analytical mind, ... but he didn't have the swag it takes to rock the world musically. So he became an economist.
Chris Mac can be Allen Greenspan... I'd rather be Eddie Van Halen.
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Megaphone? not that rare is it?This pattern is considered quite rare,but is useful in helping identify swing trades, rather than a trends.
Looks like a jump to $70 is in the cards EG... where's your second leg in? I see a slow downtrend towards $56-$57, if we see a strong up move on better than normal volume.... its $70 all the way. Chinese New Year 2017 falls a day after the next ER. As long as geopolitical factors remain the same... I think the chart heads north. YOY comps are an easy beat. China's economy is gonna continue to boom.... and Trump induced fears are a buying opportunity across the board and across all stocks. LVS being one we can game.
I don't know where my 2nd leg in will be or if I even get one. I wait for my charts to tell me. right now I have a "don't buy" signal. But with futures looking the way they do that could change early this morning. It depends. I usually do not buy on gap ups so it will depend on what price does. Also, as I said before I have a full time job so I can not watch the market most days. I will be able to peak at it periodically and make decisions then.
Looks like I am getting that pop in LVS. UP over 2.2% today. Probably adding to position in the morning if I can get today's close price or better. Expect $75 target price. MGM just broke out to new highs and WYNN also had a strong day. That's ~20% upside from current levels. Moving stops up a bit.
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While I was in and out, yesterday at $101 in WYNN, they're all taking a beating cause of China doing a crackdown on ATM withdrawals in Macau. Dodged a bullet in that one as I was looking at WYNN again!