Vehemence is a sign of weakness; quietness a sign of strength. Please come back when you have a new dead horse to beat.
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Wyckoff's Monster
- Thread starter green.green
- Start date
Vehemence is a sign of weakness; quietness a sign of strength. Please come back when you have a new dead horse to beat.
Here is my chart of today's price action. There is an adjustment looking at a 1 minute instead of a smaller tick chart. The tick chart tends to create a little more air between swings making pullbacks jump out more. I think I adjusted okay but it will take a little time to be totally comfortable.
If you look you can see I took three longs before 10:15. I put the third one on because I'm trying to follow the rules without hesitation but at the time I didn't like the trade because I had already had an "exhaustive" looking opening 3 minutes and I had already fanned the supply line 3 times in 20 minutes. I'm not suggesting I look to not take this trade in the future but I did notice some feelings of uneasiness. If this were live instead of sim it would have cost me 5 points (with slippage). It seems like DBP keeps his loses smaller than this but I can't find any reason to exit before the trend line break.
I had to stop early because I have other things to do but I'll sim out the rest of the day later tonight.
If you look you can see I took three longs before 10:15. I put the third one on because I'm trying to follow the rules without hesitation but at the time I didn't like the trade because I had already had an "exhaustive" looking opening 3 minutes and I had already fanned the supply line 3 times in 20 minutes. I'm not suggesting I look to not take this trade in the future but I did notice some feelings of uneasiness. If this were live instead of sim it would have cost me 5 points (with slippage). It seems like DBP keeps his loses smaller than this but I can't find any reason to exit before the trend line break.
I had to stop early because I have other things to do but I'll sim out the rest of the day later tonight.
I played the rest of today in sim when I got back. There is an extra red arrow at the top of the trading range that doesn't represent a trade. I was looking to short the pullback but price decided to return to the range so it wasn't triggered. I feel pretty good about how I'm reading price but I image this is always easier when price is moving well.
Hourly chart of NQ. The 50% line of the channel I have drawn has acted as resistance twice in the last two days. Will it hold again today?
Today's price action was definitely more choppy. Ordinarily I would have moved to a longer time frame but I'm trying to throw out old habits. I decided before the market that my goal was to just take the entries and exits as they came and not over-think it.
Before the market opened we saw a nice rejection of 46 (@8:14). At the open price shot up to this same level and was quickly rejected again. At 9:45 it was rejected one more time.
Even with these rejections there was no strong move in the opposite direction. Price formed a nice hinge with three lower highs and two higher lows. At 10:17 price took out a the previous swing low. I took an entry on the next bar even though the pullback occurred inside the bar which is aggressive for me.
Price made a new swing low and started moving higher. The only entry that I saw and didn't take was the long in the gray box. My thinking was we had just broken out of a hinge, we were close to the 50% retrace level and after all the rejections of 46 a long was a low probability.
The next leg down was quite vertical but sellers were not willing to follow price 3620 and price rebounded. Here I was more willing to take a long because of the break of the supply line as well as the last swing already retracing more than 50%.
I think everything else is pretty standard. I need to do more work on moe quickly identifying ranges and also decide whether/how I want to play them.
emotionally I could feel some frustration creeping in due to the choppy nature of the markets and having to scratch a lot. It wasn't enough to effect my actions but I know this might change when money is on the line.
Before the market opened we saw a nice rejection of 46 (@8:14). At the open price shot up to this same level and was quickly rejected again. At 9:45 it was rejected one more time.
Even with these rejections there was no strong move in the opposite direction. Price formed a nice hinge with three lower highs and two higher lows. At 10:17 price took out a the previous swing low. I took an entry on the next bar even though the pullback occurred inside the bar which is aggressive for me.
Price made a new swing low and started moving higher. The only entry that I saw and didn't take was the long in the gray box. My thinking was we had just broken out of a hinge, we were close to the 50% retrace level and after all the rejections of 46 a long was a low probability.
The next leg down was quite vertical but sellers were not willing to follow price 3620 and price rebounded. Here I was more willing to take a long because of the break of the supply line as well as the last swing already retracing more than 50%.
I think everything else is pretty standard. I need to do more work on moe quickly identifying ranges and also decide whether/how I want to play them.
emotionally I could feel some frustration creeping in due to the choppy nature of the markets and having to scratch a lot. It wasn't enough to effect my actions but I know this might change when money is on the line.
Cleaned up my hourly chart and simmed through the rest of today's session...
Interesting day today and after all this talk of hinges we get two more. During the end of the overnight session price is in a downtrend. At around 8:45 price accelerates lower but finds a least some buyers and heads back up. Price coils right up until the close then falls out of the hinge before springing back to test the midpoint of the hinge. Price then falls like a rock to the low of the day at 3535.25. The verticality of this drop should keep our finger on the trigger - so to speak. Definitely not a spot to wait for a 50% retracement to see if price resumes the down trend. The bar at 9:42 screams "get out"! 5 minutes later we have a pullback long entry which caries up to 3585.
There are several indications that we might want to take our profits. There is the first vertical bar at 10:08 and the "overbought" look of the last wave up. Because we are above the morning hinge now I am a little more apt to give this some room. Price cascades lower until 10:19 when again price goes vertically up. With a noticeble struggle above the last swing high and then the swift reversal bar at 10:22 we should be looking for the door. We have the option of waiting for the trendline break but I think exiting is probably better especially when looking left and seeing the overnight high.
We get our pullback entry to get short at 10:38 which should be exited at 10:46. We make a few minor highs before breaking below the last swing for another short entry at 11:04. We can stay short until 11:57 when we should exit and re-evaluate. We make one more swing low before reversing. At 12:12 we can suspect the low is in and by 12:16 it is a certainty.
At this point we have made a lower low, a double top and now a higher low. The speed with which the first move down and up stood out. Also each leg retraced the previous by well more than 50% meaning there isn't any directionality in the market yet. There is a long entry at 12:21 but I didn't take it because we were far from the previous low and approaching the 50% level of the last leg where resistance is likely. We don't have the wind at our back here.
At both 12:30 and 12:48 we see a strong rejection of the 50% level but this doesn't lead to significant downward progress. At 13:03 we get a push through the 50% level but price looks tired soon after. Price goes strongly below the 50% level but doesn't find willing sellers and reverses to form a lower high. At this point the hinge should be obvious and put us on the sidelines.
There are several indications that we might want to take our profits. There is the first vertical bar at 10:08 and the "overbought" look of the last wave up. Because we are above the morning hinge now I am a little more apt to give this some room. Price cascades lower until 10:19 when again price goes vertically up. With a noticeble struggle above the last swing high and then the swift reversal bar at 10:22 we should be looking for the door. We have the option of waiting for the trendline break but I think exiting is probably better especially when looking left and seeing the overnight high.
We get our pullback entry to get short at 10:38 which should be exited at 10:46. We make a few minor highs before breaking below the last swing for another short entry at 11:04. We can stay short until 11:57 when we should exit and re-evaluate. We make one more swing low before reversing. At 12:12 we can suspect the low is in and by 12:16 it is a certainty.
At this point we have made a lower low, a double top and now a higher low. The speed with which the first move down and up stood out. Also each leg retraced the previous by well more than 50% meaning there isn't any directionality in the market yet. There is a long entry at 12:21 but I didn't take it because we were far from the previous low and approaching the 50% level of the last leg where resistance is likely. We don't have the wind at our back here.
At both 12:30 and 12:48 we see a strong rejection of the 50% level but this doesn't lead to significant downward progress. At 13:03 we get a push through the 50% level but price looks tired soon after. Price goes strongly below the 50% level but doesn't find willing sellers and reverses to form a lower high. At this point the hinge should be obvious and put us on the sidelines.
I thought I had already posted Friday's charts so this is going to be a little out of order. I've included my hourly view. We can see that price has poked above the most recent supply line (drawn as channel). Price still hasn't made a higher high and doesn't look poised to.
Beneath us we have the bottom of the long-term trend channel (daily) and a demand line that may give us pause or begin a bigger move up. This might resolve in a hinge in which case I'll be on the sidelines until a breakout occurs. We shall see.
Beneath us we have the bottom of the long-term trend channel (daily) and a demand line that may give us pause or begin a bigger move up. This might resolve in a hinge in which case I'll be on the sidelines until a breakout occurs. We shall see.
Looks like buyers have the upper hand. The median of the small blue channel acted as support after sellers temporarily took control. We'll see if buyers can challenge today's high.