Wyckoff's Monster

I'll just keep posting quotes as I post charts...

I have no idea who said this but "conceive, believe, achieve". For a lot of people I think the belief part is the most difficult.

Here is the daily chart. The mean of the green channel is around 3425. That should be the logical downside target. If we decide to reverse the mean of the small red channel is around 3585. Given the overnight action down looks more likely. Yesterday's low might cause some resistance if we try going up (3525).
 
In "A Strategy for Daily Living" Ari Kiev has a daily checklist. Several of the points are important for people on this path:

4. Focused and informed activity reduces fear and anxiety. Study of a task and the actual effort of testing it lead to knowledge. Remembering this will take the sting out of failure, which, in fact, should be a source of new information that can assist you when you return to the task... Make the most of the information and resources you now have, and don't dwell on potential sources of difficulty that are beyond the limited amount of information available to you. This will only magnify illusions of fear and anxiety. Postponement can become habitual and can lead to noproductivity. Don't procrastinate by fantasizing about past failures or future problems; don't allow yourself to be distracted by opportunities for self-indulgence. When you postpone an activity, you increase the chances of never accomplishing it, and you will be left with memories of past wishes rather than of past deeds.
 
green.green said:
In "A Strategy for Daily Living" Ari Kiev has a daily checklist. Several of the points are important for people on this path:

4. Focused and informed activity reduces fear and anxiety. Study of a task and the actual effort of testing it lead to knowledge. Remembering this will take the sting out of failure, which, in fact, should be a source of new information that can assist you when you return to the task... Make the most of the information and resources you now have, and don't dwell on potential sources of difficulty that are beyond the limited amount of information available to you. This will only magnify illusions of fear and anxiety. Postponement can become habitual and can lead to noproductivity. Don't procrastinate by fantasizing about past failures or future problems; don't allow yourself to be distracted by opportunities for self-indulgence. When you postpone an activity, you increase the chances of never accomplishing it, and you will be left with memories of past wishes rather than of past deeds.
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Great stuff. If your setup shows up "Take the damn trade :) "
 
Just a quick update... I'm not neglecting my journal - I'm trying to figure out ninjatrader. Amazingly my computer hasn't crashed and things seem to be running fine.
 
I'm switching platforms and in the process of learning how to use ninjatrader I managed to delete all my trades from today. Usually it would be easy enough to remember most of my trades but I tried the scratching drill on a day with wider moves. I had a lot of scratches, a couple of small winners, a couple of 8+ pointers and several full stop outs (at 2 points). It was a winning day in the p&l but I don't remember how many total trades I took. I would imagine factoring for slippage and fees it would have been pretty close to a wash.

This did give me a chance to look at today's price action with new eyes and I feel disappointed with myself. I didn't have a bad day but I feel like I missed the plot that was right in front of me. I had all of these overnight lines in place. I saw the range that formed a tighter range which acted as support at 7:30 this morning.

I missed the double-bottom trade which is fine. What I really missed was the directionality of the day. The 50% level held on the first leg. It was also the mean of the range before the open. The 50% level held again on the second leg before price caught the FOMC express. Notice also how when a price reached 57 on the second push up and was rejected forming a double-top - it barely made any downward progress. There are three clear tries lower, each making a slightly lower low before reversing. This later became the 50% level and was supported again.

I somehow had the feeling that the day was a constant back and forth when there was a lot more order to it. It was messy around the open but it cleaned up nice. I got long at 63 something and was happy to get out at the smallest twitch because it was at the mean I had marked on my chart from the hourly. With all that had gone on previously in the day I don't see a reason to exit that trade until nearly the close.

The overnight range being supported up said buyers, the morning double bottom at the top of the overnight range said buyers, the breakout and support of 50% said buyers, the next leg up and support at 50% said buyers; I was clearly watching the trees and not the forest. Hopefully I'm learning.

EDIT: That 54 level had 2 DTDB imo - the first double-top fail with the three pushes lower -> REV and the pre FOMC break under 57 which turned around at 54.
 
I did the same thing green. I saw 50 as resistance and didn't see the double bottom early and had a bearish bias all day until the fed
 
green.green said:
I'm switching platforms and in the process of learning how to use ninjatrader I managed to delete all my trades from today. Usually it would be easy enough to remember most of my trades but I tried the scratching drill on a day with wider moves. I had a lot of scratches, a couple of small winners, a couple of 8+ pointers and several full stop outs (at 2 points). It was a winning day in the p&l but I don't remember how many total trades I took. I would imagine factoring for slippage and fees it would have been pretty close to a wash.

This did give me a chance to look at today's price action with new eyes and I feel disappointed with myself. I didn't have a bad day but I feel like I missed the plot that was right in front of me. I had all of these overnight lines in place. I saw the range that formed a tighter range which acted as support at 7:30 this morning.

I missed the double-bottom trade which is fine. What I really missed was the directionality of the day. The 50% level held on the first leg. It was also the mean of the range before the open. The 50% level held again on the second leg before price caught the FOMC express. Notice also how when a price reached 57 on the second push up and was rejected forming a double-top - it barely made any downward progress. There are three clear tries lower, each making a slightly lower low before reversing. This later became the 50% level and was supported again.

I somehow had the feeling that the day was a constant back and forth when there was a lot more order to it. It was messy around the open but it cleaned up nice. I got long at 63 something and was happy to get out at the smallest twitch because it was at the mean I had marked on my chart from the hourly. With all that had gone on previously in the day I don't see a reason to exit that trade until nearly the close.

The overnight range being supported up said buyers, the morning double bottom at the top of the overnight range said buyers, the breakout and support of 50% said buyers, the next leg up and support at 50% said buyers; I was clearly watching the trees and not the forest. Hopefully I'm learning.

EDIT: That 54 level had 2 DTDB imo - the first double-top fail with the three pushes lower -> REV and the pre FOMC break under 57 which turned around at 54.
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Welcome, fellow ninjatrader, dont hesitate to ask if you have any questions.
 
Pre-market the hourly tells most of the story. After exceeding the mean yesterday price stalled and tested the mean from above where price was supported. The mean is currently at 75. 3628 is the top of the channel. Also on the hourly after making a higher high we have made a higher low. If price fails to make a new high then a lower high would be an opportunity to get short.

On the minute chart we can see the importance of 92. Price ranged above 92 then fell below it forming another small range. Price went above 92 again and found support there but after failing to make much upward progress fell below 92 down to the mean and then tested 92 from below where sellers came in again.
 
I took 6 trades today - all of them shorts. I got stopped out of my first 3 trades for 2 points each. My next trade was from 74-67 (+7) then 57.50-34 (+23.50) then 23.75-11.25(+12.50).

It was a relatively easy day to make some points. However - I realize more than anything how much work I need to do. I know I won't feel confident with this whole approach until I've put it through the ringer. We've had some big days recently and I don't know how much cleaning up on these huge moves is representative of anything. I'd feel a lot better taking points out of difficult days in sim then watching price cascade lower in real time and not having much to do.

I wasn't actively in chat when Db mentioned using a bigger time frame but that certainly looks like a good idea in retrospect.

I'm also including a 4 hour chart. I have included a channel where rather than redrawing the mean I've stair stepped it down. It's an idea I've been noticing on other charts and something that makes sense to me in concept. You can see that our original channel is pretty well represented by the top two lines. Eventually this second line became the mean as the range doubled. After this last leg down it looks like the mean may now be the second line from the bottom. This would mean that yesterday's price action would be in an overbought position relative to these latest lines. I'm not trading off of it and I have the other trend line drawn. I'm mainly adding this here so I remember to test this and see if this is meaningful moving forward. It may amount to nothing in the end. It does seem like the steepness of our latest channel means it isn't going to be relevant for long.
 
Overnight action includes another 40 point drop. Price was ranging between 87 and 79 before falling out to the downside and then plunging down to 47. Price was just rejected at 63 as it tries to climb back up.

On the hourly we can see our trend channel is working so far. Price has reached the lower extreme and looks poised to reverse. currently the mean is around 3520. The hourly SL is still intact but it won't take much to do so.
 
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