Wuhoo! Go Yahoo!

No no no my friend. Thats what we call a dead cat bounce.

Fidelity sold out of this beast all last year and has liquidated their entire position. Now everyone is flowing into it thinking that this is the large cap tech they need for their portfolio.

We will soon see on January 23rd. I use Yahoo and think its a good company, but I must tip my hat to Google. I believe revenue at Yahoo will shrink once again even while Google moves that much more forward...

Actually, I might even say to buy Google before Yahoo's earnings call, that is, if it makes sense on the chart...
 
I was long Yahoo around 31-32 after its drop from the upper 30's, sold out around 30 and change right before its big collapse to the mid 20's. It has crawled its way back and could bounce to the mid 30's if earnings show improvement, however I would be protecting any profits ahead of earnings.
 
Im not sure how Yahoo's earnings would have shown any improvement. I use Yahoo everyday for different things, but since its free, I never contribute to the revenue stream. The only reason why I use Yahoo is because my email address is yahoo based and I dont want to change. However, all my buddies are switching to GMail.

Google's ad system cant be beat. They have this figured out. They will continue to gain marketshare from Yahoo. It was a nice bounce from the low 20s, but the bounce, I believe, was because of investors feeling that large cap tech is the in-thing. Well, we shall see how the investors feel after the earnings call demonstrates that Yahoo is in great need of significant restructuring and that they are truly losing marketshare to Google. This new email system doesnt demonstrate to me significant restructuring. Where is the new ad system they promised to roll out?

While a rising tide lifts all boats, the conference call is going to put a big hole into this boat we call Yahoo. A good rise in share price during non-earnings season just means a larger plunge when the CEO shows up to reveal his underwear on the conference call. That underwear better be clean or else its a spectacular waterfall selloff thats entertaining to us who have no position in Yahoo but a black day for those who hold shares.

Quote from S2007S:

I was long Yahoo around 31-32 after its drop from the upper 30's, sold out around 30 and change right before its big collapse to the mid 20's. It has crawled its way back and could bounce to the mid 30's if earnings show improvement, however I would be protecting any profits ahead of earnings.
More...
 
I don't like to make predictions....but in the case of YHOO I will becasue I am very, very familair wih the company. My prediction....YHOO will be beat expectations.

If you're interested search for my previous posts re YHOO.

An addendum to my previous posts: Yes, institutions sold YHOO throughout 06, now in 07 some of these institutions plus some additional ones are beginning to tip toe back into the stock establishing positions at better prices.

everyone is speculating on a buy-out, I know for a fact that Yang and Filo (founders who are still very active in the co. and still control many millions of shares) wish to remain independent for a while longer, at least through Q3 or Q4.

the specualtion that CEO Semel is exiting is more likely, but he won't leave until Q2 at the earliest.

YHOO is rising on its own.....

if Panama results in better monetization for search advertisng (i've heard from industry people that they are impressed), and YHOO's mobile strategy gets traction, watch out cause this stock will rocket upward.
 
i forgot to mention that i'm alsolong GOOG.

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there is more then enough room in the digital world for YHOO and GOOG to both be successful.

Im doing a cut'n paste of an article that an associate of mine worte about YHOO a few months ago right after GOOG bought YouTube:

If you’re a political junkie like me, you may be familiar with a presidential campaign documentary called “Journeys with George” that takes you inside the lives of the press corps following then-Governor George Bush’s presidential bid. Regardless of your political leanings (the filmmaker was Alexandra Pelosi, daughter of Democratic House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi) it was impossible not to be charmed by the personal charisma of then-candidate W. But near the end of the film – once Bush has been elected and the members of the campaign press-corps are effectively kept far away from him – one reporter makes a chillingly incisive comment:

“So much of this has been a kind of pack journalism – everyone making sure they’ve got the same stuff as everybody else. I’ve just got this kind of nagging feeling that the press wasn’t always doing the right thing. The Gore press corps was all about how they didn’t like him (Gore) and didn’t trust him and that kind of filtered through to the stories. And we (the Bush press corps) were writing about trivial stuff because he (Bush) charmed the pants off of us.”

This column isn’t about politics; it’s about how reporting is no longer really about the truth, but rather about the story line. A good, simple story line will trump good reporting every time. A good story line entertains and makes the reader/viewer feel smarter and more certain about the world. Reporting is expensive and frustrating and often inconclusive. So journalists today sniff out the story line early, find "facts" to support it, and then it simply bounces back and forth between the bloggers and the mainstream press. And while political reporters might ask a couple of extra questions this election season, it seems that business reporting is firmly stuck in the echo chamber.

Today's simple Internet story line goes like this: Google is the source of all good things in the digital world; the company that can literally do no wrong. Google is the charming politician who people just want to like. One needs only look at Fortune’s recent piece (“Chaos by Design”) to see the celebration in full flower. In the story, Larry Page thanks a manager for her multi-million dollar mistake ("I'm so glad you made this mistake... Because I want to run a company where we are moving too quickly and doing too much, not being too cautious and doing too little. If we don't have any of these mistakes, we're just not taking enough risk”) and the business operations guru celebrates chaos as a virtue. With the story framed this way, every product that fades into oblivion (Google Local, Froogle, Google Print, et al) becomes a badge of innovation, every failed business deal a triumph of experience. When objectivity is suspended, failure ceases to exist as a story element.

Unless you’re Yahoo! The other side of today’s simple story line features Yahoo! as the wounded, dancing bear. Gosh they just can’t seem to get anything right! Poor Yahoo! What’s become of them? It’s Yahoo! as Al Gore, circa September 2000. Last week, Saul Hansell of The New York Times played this out in a piece of reportage (“Yahoo!’s Growth Being Eroded by New Rivals”) that accepts and supports virtually every negative assumption about Yahoo!. Hansell notes that Yahoo! “…has suffered some embarrassing setbacks in its sales of both display and Web search advertising.” True that Yahoo! lags well behind Google in terms of both search dollars and the monetization of search results, but last I looked Yahoo! was still the dominant player in online display advertising, raking in a huge share of all the marketing dollars currently invested in the online channel. Slowing growth? Well, that tends to happen when you’ve got a huge market share, doesn’t it? The New York Times article then helpfully points out that “Many advertising industry executives say Yahoo!’s lead in working with big marketers has eroded as other companies have built up popular Web sites, sales operations and advertising technology.” Huh?
To support this new conventional wisdom he quotes David Cohen, senior vice president at Universal McCann, about Yahoo!’s shrinking lead. This is the same Universal McCann that handles advertising for MSN, a big Yahoo! competitor.

Let’s suppose for a minute that Yahoo! -- not Google -- had done a deal for YouTube last month, as has been widely speculated (but never confirmed… there goes that darned echo chamber again.) How would the business press have reported it? “Yahoo! Does Desperation Deal for Video Site” or “Yahoo! Bets 15% of Cash Reserves to Try to Keep Up with Google.” You see how it works? The same fiscal discipline and considered judgment that put Terry Semel on the cover of Business Week for Yahoo!’s miraculous turnaround is now being portrayed as slow-footed stodginess. Framing is what it’s all about. And today we’re being served up a story that’s been very poorly framed.

Memo to the business press: Take a breath. The truth is that both Google and Yahoo! are really good companies with smart people and some pretty terrific assets. You do a disservice to both -- and to your readers -- by canonizing one and Swift-Boating the other. They’re also different enough from one another that they don’t need to be cast as hero and villain. Maybe if you do your jobs and read something besides the stock ticker and each other’s stories, you’ll realize the digital future is plenty big enough for two.
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Quote from xxxskier:

I don't like to make predictions....but in the case of YHOO I will becasue I am very, very familair wih the company. My prediction....YHOO will be beat expectations.

If you're interested search for my previous posts re YHOO.

An addendum to my previous posts: Yes, institutions sold YHOO throughout 06, now in 07 some of these institutions plus some additional ones are beginning to tip toe back into the stock establishing positions at better prices.

everyone is speculating on a buy-out, I know for a fact that Yang and Filo (founders who are still very active in the co. and still control many millions of shares) wish to remain independent for a while longer, at least through Q3 or Q4.

the specualtion that CEO Semel is exiting is more likely, but he won't leave until Q2 at the earliest.

YHOO is rising on its own.....

if Panama results in better monetization for search advertisng (i've heard from industry people that they are impressed), and YHOO's mobile strategy gets traction, watch out cause this stock will rocket upward.
More...


Anyone interested in YHOO should have done so when it fell below 25, YHOO could easily start trading in the high 30's low 40's by late 2007. Anyone buying up the company then will be paying tooo much.
 
Haha. A buyout? If I had a dollar when there were rumors floating around on a buyout, then I would be rich beyond my wildest dreams.

Yahoo is not going to get bought out.

How will they beat expectations? Where are their new products? Their board looks the same as its always been with a few minor changes.

You are the first one that I have heard of talking about a buyout. Can you post up a link that confirms this rumor or is this Yahoo message board speculation?

Lets look at what the professionals have to say. The last time an 8k was filed was on October 10th and lets see what happened next:


20-Oct-06 Stifel Nicolaus Downgrade
18-Oct-06 Piper Jaffray Downgrade
17-Oct-06 Cowen & Co Downgrade
13-Oct-06 Thomas Weisel Downgrade

I think Yahoo is a boat that is getting lucky rising on the tide of large cap tech fever.

We shall see after next conference call when we get another series of downgrades and a waterfall selloff.

Quote from xxxskier:

I don't like to make predictions....but in the case of YHOO I will becasue I am very, very familair wih the company. My prediction....YHOO will be beat expectations.

If you're interested search for my previous posts re YHOO.

An addendum to my previous posts: Yes, institutions sold YHOO throughout 06, now in 07 some of these institutions plus some additional ones are beginning to tip toe back into the stock establishing positions at better prices.

everyone is speculating on a buy-out, I know for a fact that Yang and Filo (founders who are still very active in the co. and still control many millions of shares) wish to remain independent for a while longer, at least through Q3 or Q4.

the specualtion that CEO Semel is exiting is more likely, but he won't leave until Q2 at the earliest.

YHOO is rising on its own.....

if Panama results in better monetization for search advertisng (i've heard from industry people that they are impressed), and YHOO's mobile strategy gets traction, watch out cause this stock will rocket upward.
More...
 
first, i i am very confident that yhoo will beat expectations, feel free to mark this post and add your comments after 1/23/07

yhoo has two new "products".

first is Panama - the new search marketing platform that search ad buyers use. although goog leads yhoo in search, the real pain for yhoo has been there inability to monetize each click as well as goog. Panama, which did not fully roll out to their clients until 1/1/07, will add signifiant revenue, even if yhoo search does not grow. that revenue won't be reproted until Q2

second is their new mobile product. all bets are off as to who the leader will be in mobile search. read any of the big silly valley blogs...techcrunch.com, gigaom.com, valleywag.com and you'll see what i mean.

most people don't undertstand the online ad industry, and most people don't understand the key differences between goog and yhoo. where goog leads in search ad revenue, yhoo leads in display ad revenue. and it is forgotten that yhoo is the #1 most visited site on the web, more then google.com. here's some links:
http://www.alexa.com/site/ds/top_sites?cc=US&ts_mode=country&lang=none

http://alexa.com/browse?CategoryID=1

http://alexa.com/


yhoo got dinged hard in 06 because their growth slowed down....let me repeat that, the growth slowed down, it did not stop growing. and when compared to goog's stellar growth people bailed out of yhoo and moved into goog. but as both yhoo and goog mature, and the industry matures, it will be obvious thaty market (ad market) forces will not want a monopoly in online advertising, there will always be room for both goog and yhoo.

besides increased revenues for 07 and beyond, you should look at their balance sheet and cashflow statement....it is very healthy. plus most people don't realize that yhoo owns 40% of chinese web giant alibaba, which is not just c to c, but also b to b search and commerce and is growing rapidly, much more so then goog's investments asia. in fact, goog will have about a .35 cent reduction in investment inccome and yhoo will show in increase.

plus yhoo is not a one trick pony, which goog is right now - all their rev. comes from search. yhoo rev. comes from search, display, subscriptions, rev share with AT&T dsl, plus other rev streams that are just nor developing.
 
oh, i forgot to address the comment about yhoo simply rising with the tide. put up a chart of the naz, the qqqq, and yhoo and then tell me who is riding on whom.....
 
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